A WSOP Main Event Hand

[slickpoppa]

I've been meaning to post this one for a while, here it is:

250-500 blinds, 50 ante. It is about 1:45 in the morning and we are playing until 2:30.

I have about 18,000 and I have tight table image. I have only played one hand to a showdown and it was when I took out a small stack with QQ.

I get KcJc in UTG+1 and raise to 1500. This is a marginal hand for EP, but I raised since play was tightening up because it was late and getting close to the second day.

It is folded to the BB who calls. I don't have much of a read on the BB other than that I suspect he is loose passive. He has about the same number of chips as me.

The flop is K T 5, all hearts.

BB checks, I bet 2500, he calls.

The turn is 4, not a heart.

He checks, I...? (There is ~9,000 in the pot and I have 14,000 left)

[mikey checks]

Make a strong bet?

you have to punish the draw with a decent kicker and if u bet it he might slow down and check down the river with KQ, AK

[bruce]

Bet around two thirds to three quarters of the pot. If he moves all in fold. Check the river if you don't improve. In
most spots you'll be up against a draw or a worse hand. If I had a heart draw ie. KJo with a heart I would check the turn.
I don't want to be c/r'ed off a potentially big draw. If a heart comes on the river well, use your best judgement.

Bruce

[jon_1van]

my mind screams small pot, small pot when he calls the flop bet.

[burningyen]

[ QUOTE ]
my mind screams small pot, small pot when he calls the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Tyler Durden]

push the turn. overbet but who cares, it looks like you have the best hand right now and you want to make it expensive for him.

[Iconoclastic]

Check the Flop. You have position and you have a showdown hand.

[Tyler Durden]

Giving a free card here must be the worst thing you can do.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
my mind screams small pot, small pot when he calls the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you saying that I should check the turn? That doesn't really make any sense. What hand could he have that I beat that I want to give a free card to? Even if he has Kx, if his x is a heart I can't give him a free card.

[burningyen]

Oops, I misread the OP (all-heart flop). This is a tough one. I would bet 5000 and fold to a raise. I'd be happy to check behind on the river.

[SossMan]

I check behind on the turn. I know that I give him a free card, but that only hurts me if
A) he has a lone heart and
B) he doesn't already have me beat and
C) the river comes a heart or

D) he bluffs me off a non-river heart after I check the turn

I want a cheap showdown here, and he will be hard pressed to make a bet with worse hand on the river that I can't call.

I want to keep the pot small, and if that means not reopening the action so that he can semibluff something like AhTx on the turn, then so be it.

Get me to the river.

[ansky451]

I definitely check behind here on the turn. Although its not one of these "way ahead, way behind" situations, but it is "somewhat ahead, or way the hell behind." And you have a hand that can win in a showdown. If I check behind and a heart rivers, so be it, I'll let him bet me off my hand, but if a blank rivers, you have an excellent chance of having the winning hand in a showdown.

I don't want to bet, and have to fold top pair in this situation and lose a pretty big chunk of my stack by giving him a second chance to raise.

To whoever said check the flop, I do however disagree with that. By doing that you don't define your hand at all, and you lose all chances of winning the pot right there.

This isn't an NL cash game, free cards in the right circumstances are ok.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
I check behind on the turn. I know that I give him a free card, but that only hurts me if
A) he has a lone heart and
B) he doesn't already have me beat and
C) the river comes a heart or

D) he bluffs me off a non-river heart after I check the turn

I want a cheap showdown here, and he will be hard pressed to make a bet with worse hand on the river that I can't call.

I want to keep the pot small, and if that means not reopening the action so that he can semibluff something like AhTx on the turn, then so be it.

Get me to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I put him on four types of hands, most of which i think I gain more by betting:

a) KQ: He's not going to fold to a turn bet, but he's probably not going rerasise me or bet a scary river either.
b) KT, TT, 55, non-nut heart flush: If I bet the turn, he will almost certainly checkraise me to protect his hand.
c) Ahx: A free card kills me. Also, villain is passive, so I don't have to worry about him checkraising me all-in on the turn.
d) Kx: He'll probably call the turn and check any river.

Here are the possibilities if I bet or check the turn for each type of hand:
a) I bet: He calls. On almost any river, he checks, I check.
I check: He probably checks any river and I check behind.
Result: I probably lose by betting in this case.

b) I bet: He checkraises me and I fold
I check: He bets into me any non-heart river, which is about 80% of the time, and I have to call. He may check a heart river, but I don't lnow if I would have the balls to bluff him.
Result: I think I gain by betting, because if I am behind I probably lose the same amount either way.

c) I bet: He calls and checks any non-heart river
I check: He bets any heart river and I fold.
Result: I gain more by betting

d) I bet: He calls and checks any river.
I check: He checks any river and I probably check behind.
Result: I gain more by betting.

To me the only question is how much I bet.

[locutus2002]

Hero pushes.

If villain already has 2 pr++ then hero is not getting away from the hand at 2AM.

It is unlikely that the 4 helped villain unless he has 54. I think the most likely holding for villain is A /images/graemlins/heart.gifT. or some holding where he is 50% in the hand at the flop, with outs to the nuts.

In the best case for hero villain is only 30% in the hand after the turn, and hero needs to make the implied odds unfavorable by pushing. You play KJ and flop top pair you have to go down with the hand here.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero pushes.


[/ QUOTE ]
14k into a pot of 9k with top pair jack kicker?

[ QUOTE ]
If villain already has 2 pr++ then hero is not getting away from the hand at 2AM.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thats not a real reason.

[ QUOTE ]
In the best case for hero villain is only 30% in the hand after the turn, and hero needs to make the implied odds unfavorable by pushing. You play KJ and flop top pair you have to go down with the hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hm, most good players are capable of folding top pair top kicker, let alone top pair mid kicker, let alone let alone top pair mid kicker- with 3 flush up. Any hand that calls the hero here is beating him. Just because the other guy may have 14 outs doesn't make it right to just shove all the chips in.

[Tyler Durden]

If I'm hero I'm pushing the turn so fast

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm hero I'm pushing the turn so fast

[/ QUOTE ]

How about you give your reasoning?

[locutus2002]

Hero pushes.

Hero might have FE if villain doesn't have the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif, or K with a lesser heart, maybe even KQ, especially as hero has been playing tight and opened in EP.

I don't like getting all my chips in anymore than the next guy, but if villain has 2pr++ here it is well disguised and I'm going to pay it off especially if a brick comes on the river, so I wouldn't worry about the times I am behind.

I think if hero checks he might as well fold.

Any meaningful bet is going to leave hero pot committed so I would move them in thinking I'm probably ahead.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm hero I'm pushing the turn so fast

[/ QUOTE ]

If my stack was smaller, I would agree with you. But do I really want to bet 1.5x the pot with a marginal kicker and no redraws? Its a tough spot.

Anyway, I bet 5,000 and the villain called. My reasoning was that this amount would protect against a free card, but still leave me with a decent stack if I was behind and got checkraised. I was planning on folding to any heart on the river.

The river was a black 9, making the board Kh Th 5h 4 9.

Villain bets 5,000, making the pot about 23,000. Call or fold?

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I'm hero I'm pushing the turn so fast

[/ QUOTE ]

How about you give your reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]

The only hand I'm worried about him having is a flush and I doubt he's got that, but if he does, oh well it's been a fun run at the WSOP. He prob folds KQ. It's tough for him to have two pair b/c of his flop play.

Push! Bring out the cow!

[Double Eagle]

I'm torn between checking behind and pushing here. I would normally go with a check (see Soss's post for reasons), but the "Day 1 Bubble" does give us a bunch of extra FE as AK/KQ no heart is going to have a hard time calling when it's so close to the end of the session. I think betting and leaving ourselves open to a semi-bluff C/R (especially if we plan on folding) is the worst option...

[Seadood228]

I'm checking the turn as well for the above reasons. I can understand some of the arguements for betting, but IMO you'll have to commit a large portion of your stack here and there is too much of a chance you are behind for that. With such a scary board, and at this stage of the tournament, I think the chances of him running some crazy bluff on the river are slim. IMO this will get checked down quite often given the scenario.

[Tyler Durden]

It's hard to believe you have the winner when he makes such a small bet on the end. All you can beat is a bluff basically. Folding leaves you in decent shape. I think that's the play. Looks like villain really wants a call here.

[Seadood228]

You make a strong arguement. Against an LP betting looks like it could be the way to go.

[Seadood228]

Ugh Ugh Ugh.. I'm in TDs boat thinking there's nothing that you beat. These are the types of folds that I lose sleep over, but it looks like the right move, especially against this type of player.

[Benal]

[ QUOTE ]
The river was a black 9, making the board Kh Th 5h 4 9.

Villain bets 5,000, making the pot about 23,000. Call or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

You suspected he was loose passive. Check/call, check/call, then lead the river just screams monster from a LP player. You have 10K left? I fold.

P.S. I check behind on the turn.
P.P.S. I fold preflop /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
It's hard to believe you have the winner when he makes such a small bet on the end. All you can beat is a bluff basically. Folding leaves you in decent shape. I think that's the play. Looks like villain really wants a call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, sort of. I thought for a long time and eventually called. The bet was very suspicious, but I called because I could think of very few hands that beat me that he would not have raised on the turn with such a scary board. Any two pair or set almost definitely would have raised the turn. I thought that the probability of him making a last ditch effort with a missed Ah was high enough to justify a call, given how large the pot was.

Unfortunately he turned over QJ for the rivered straight and I was crippled. At the time I never really gave it serious thought that he could have QJ. He hit the one fvckin card that he could beat me with but also get me to call on the river.

In hindsight I probably should have folded, although I don't think it was easy. My judgement may have been clouded by my fatigue and the allure of getting to the second day with a pretty big stack.

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's hard to believe you have the winner when he makes such a small bet on the end. All you can beat is a bluff basically. Folding leaves you in decent shape. I think that's the play. Looks like villain really wants a call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, sort of. I thought for a long time and eventually called. The bet was very suspicious, but I called because I could think of very few hands that beat me that he would not have raised on the turn with such a scary board. Any two pair or set almost definitely would have raised the turn. I thought that the probability of him making a last ditch effort with a missed Ah was high enough to justify a call, given how large the pot was.

Unfortunately he turned over QJ for the rivered straight and I was crippled. At the time I never really gave it serious thought that he could have QJ. He hit the one fvckin card that he could beat me with but also get me to call on the river.

In hindsight I probably should have folded, although I don't think it was easy. My judgement may have been clouded by my fatigue and the allure of getting to the second day with a pretty big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did he have QJ w/ none of the flush suit? If so, he's an all star. He'll prob. win the ME next year.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
Did he have QJ w/ none of the flush suit? If so, he's an all star. He'll prob. win the ME next year.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure because I was so pissed off at the time, but I think he didn't have a heart. Even if he did, I think his call was crap because he was out of position and had no way of knowing if his heart was clean.

[tiger7210]

I check the turn trying to keep the pot small here and get to showdown as cheap as possible.

[burningyen]

Ouch, man. I probably would have folded at 11am and called at 2am.

[SossMan]

wow, he played that pretty badly with the exception of the river bet.

[MLG]

In my mind this is a clear check behind situation. A lot of times in this forum we get so fixated on protecting ourselves gainst draws that we forget there are all sorts of other things to worry about also. The thing is any bet that protects you sufficiently from a drawing hand is going to make it very very hard for you to fold the river, and a push only gets called by hands that have you pretty crushed. Combine that with the fact that checking behind here might inspire a river bluff from a missed flush draw, or a bad bet from a worse K or something and I like to excercise pot control here.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
In my mind this is a clear check behind situation. A lot of times in this forum we get so fixated on protecting ourselves gainst draws that we forget there are all sorts of other things to worry about also. The thing is any bet that protects you sufficiently from a drawing hand is going to make it very very hard for you to fold the river, and a push only gets called by hands that have you pretty crushed. Combine that with the fact that checking behind here might inspire a river bluff from a missed flush draw, or a bad bet from a worse K or something and I like to excercise pot control here.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha, i win.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
In my mind this is a clear check behind situation. A lot of times in this forum we get so fixated on protecting ourselves gainst draws that we forget there are all sorts of other things to worry about also. The thing is any bet that protects you sufficiently from a drawing hand is going to make it very very hard for you to fold the river, and a push only gets called by hands that have you pretty crushed. Combine that with the fact that checking behind here might inspire a river bluff from a missed flush draw, or a bad bet from a worse K or something and I like to excercise pot control here.

[/ QUOTE ]

word.

[Double Eagle]

And the last time you two disagreed on a line was....?????

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
I check behind on the turn. I know that I give him a free card, but that only hurts me if
A) he has a lone heart and
B) he doesn't already have me beat and
C) the river comes a heart or

D) he bluffs me off a non-river heart after I check the turn

I want a cheap showdown here, and he will be hard pressed to make a bet with worse hand on the river that I can't call.

I want to keep the pot small, and if that means not reopening the action so that he can semibluff something like AhTx on the turn, then so be it.

Get me to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting hand. I am with Soss on this one. Top pair, weak kicker, on a single-suited flop, is not a situation where you want to gamble most of your chips if you can help it.

The OP did a nice analysis of the various possibilities but one piece of equity he didn't account for is when you pick off a bluff on the river. Also, he is unable to bluff at a heart on the river because you could easily be on the heart draw as well, and thus you can fold with a clear conscience if the 4th heart comes.

By the way, it's true that pushing the turn might get KQ to fold, but if he's going to play KQ that way when a king flops, he shouldn't have even called with it. In my world KQ definitely bets out or check-raises on the flop.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
And the last time you two disagreed on a line was....?????

[/ QUOTE ]

1987

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
In my mind this is a clear check behind situation. A lot of times in this forum we get so fixated on protecting ourselves gainst draws that we forget there are all sorts of other things to worry about also. The thing is any bet that protects you sufficiently from a drawing hand is going to make it very very hard for you to fold the river, and a push only gets called by hands that have you pretty crushed. Combine that with the fact that checking behind here might inspire a river bluff from a missed flush draw, or a bad bet from a worse K or something and I like to excercise pot control here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you on checking behind;

I think it's important to add:

I also don't want to be giving myself the high variance line here for little equity; the little equity can be seen in all the disagreements among good players here.

If he has a flush draw so what, everyone keeps on screaming 'it's a huge mistake to let him draw for free' eff that, it's a 1/5 of pot mistake before you even factor in the price you cost yourself when:

you bet and with his As,xo draw he checkraises you all in and you fold the best hand.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In my mind this is a clear check behind situation. A lot of times in this forum we get so fixated on protecting ourselves gainst draws that we forget there are all sorts of other things to worry about also. The thing is any bet that protects you sufficiently from a drawing hand is going to make it very very hard for you to fold the river, and a push only gets called by hands that have you pretty crushed. Combine that with the fact that checking behind here might inspire a river bluff from a missed flush draw, or a bad bet from a worse K or something and I like to excercise pot control here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you on checking behind;

I think it's important to add:

I also don't want to be giving myself the high variance line here for little equity; the little equity can be seen in all the disagreements among good players here.

If he has a flush draw so what, everyone keeps on screaming 'it's a huge mistake to let him draw for free' eff that, it's a 1/5 of pot mistake before you even factor in the price you cost yourself when:

you bet and with his As,xo draw he checkraises you all in and you fold the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


exactly.

[MLG]

I still hadnt mastered way ahead/way behind when i was 4.

[Double Eagle]

OK I give, pushing = not such a good idea.

I seem to have perfected the jam-into-the-nuts play recently so i thought this would be a good spot for it....

[MLG]

to be fair, the mistake is usually gonna be bigger than 1/5 as usually he will be drawing to a flush draw + over or pair, or gutshot or some combination of them. The point still stands though.

[locutus2002]

Villain can only have you crushed 5% of the time, and have the nuts < 1% of the time. I don't think he'd check it if he was ahead on this board that could improve for anyone. I think hero is ahead and should assert it. After hero checks behind his flop bet looks like a continuation bet and he is vulnerable to getting blown off the hand.

Is a push correct? Hero pushes 14K to win 9K and has to get villain to fold at worst 64% of the time to make it EV+. With this flop alot more than 64% of the hand will be drawing hands that villain will be getting the incorrect odds to continue with. couple this with some FE, and some K-rags that call and hero is way ahead. Pushing is EV+.

Is checking behind more EV++? This is a judgement call and very situational. Overall, I would put hero all in on the river if I was villain after hero failed to show me that he was committed to the hand.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain can only have you crushed 5% of the time, and have the nuts < 1% of the time. I don't think he'd check it if he was ahead on this board that could improve for anyone. I think hero is ahead and should assert it. After hero checks behind his flop bet looks like a continuation bet and he is vulnerable to getting blown off the hand.

Is a push correct? Hero pushes 14K to win 9K and has to get villain to fold at worst 64% of the time to make it EV+. With this flop alot more than 64% of the hand will be drawing hands that villain will be getting the incorrect odds to continue with. couple this with some FE, and some K-rags that call and hero is way ahead. Pushing is EV+.

Is checking behind more EV++? This is a judgement call and very situational. Overall, I would put hero all in on the river if I was villain after hero failed to show me that he was committed to the hand.

[/ QUOTE ] '


Where are these numbers from? the nuts less than 1%?

[Iconoclastic]

Now that the momentum of this thread has gone in the way of the Keep the Pot Small school away from the Push All Your Chips In And Pray You're Ahead school, why not go all the way and just check the Flop.

If Villain bets the Turn and River call him barring read.

Think, would most hands that you want to call such as a lower pair or lower kicker actually CALL on the Flop? No, why would they? There is NO value bet, only a bluff.

Plus not betting the Flop keeps the Pot small enough so that you're not milked too much while paying off a flush.

This way, if he has a Heart, most of the time he won't improve anyway and you'll win. He may even catch an undercard and "value" bet into you later or bluff you thinking your checks=weak and give you more chips. The chips you lose from being outdrawn are outweighed by the chips he "value" bets into you or bluffs off to you and the times you don't get check-raised out the hand.

But if I already bet the Flop, I would have rather Pushed the Turn. Once you make a mistake, make it all the way.

And finally, I'm not results oriented but had the Hero taken my line it would have ended up

Flop: check, check
Turn: either check, check or bet, call (pot ~6000)
River: bet, call (lose a ~12,000 or ~6,000 pot)

rather than lose a ~30,000 pot