PP 30+3 11k guaranteed hand, what should my play be?

[ZimbuTheMonkey]

NL Texas Hold'em Level:3 Blinds (15/30)
Table $11,000 Guaranteed(403441) Table #20 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: discobuch ( $725 )
Seat 2: rivahboat ( $1535 )
Seat 5: SNAKEB10 ( $1000 )
Seat 6: east33pro ( $1735 )
Seat 7: HERO ( $3670 )
Seat 8: memurphy512 ( $495 )
Seat 9: bigmo100 ( $1440 )
Seat 3: OmahaPlayer1 ( $220 )
Seat 4: reklawd74 ( $460 )
Seat 10: hsalkcab ( $810 )
Trny:14243640 Level:3
Blinds (15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 9c 9h ]
memurphy512 folds.
bigmo100 raises [75].
hsalkcab folds.
discobuch calls [75].
rivahboat folds.
OmahaPlayer1 folds.
reklawd74 folds.
SNAKEB10 folds.
east33pro folds.
HERO calls [45].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, 8h, 7c ]
HERO checks.
bigmo100 bets [85].
discobuch raises [300].
HERO raises [650].

[Goal was to make bigmo fold and isolate the shortstack]

bigmo100 is all-In [1280]
discobuch folds.
HERO: uh oh

Players have been generally pretty bad, lots of loose calls and all-ins plays, etc. You know, the usual. My table image should be that of a tight player, I've shown down some good holdings a few times.

What do I do here?

[KyleM]

When I see the raise to 300, I think he usually has more than a pair, though he could be a complete maniac.

[ZimbuTheMonkey]

Yes, the shortstack was doing some wacky plays and was playing terrible. I was happy he raised actually, it would have been perfect to go up against him with my holdings.

[JC_Saves]

I call this pretty quickly. His preflop raise was nothing spectacular, and his bet on that flop was nothing. His over the top all in reraise seems odd to me. Would he have raised with 56, 44, 77, 88, and if he hit a set why go all in after your raise?

I would call because you have bigmo covered alot and if he has a set you still have outs.

I'd call, if only for table image. Even if you lose, you will be second place at the table, and you will have plenty of time to move up. If you fold, you send the image that you can be run over. Maybe that is what you want to project, but I don't like it for myself. I prefer people to be afraid to bluff me.

Heck, counting the runner-runner straight possibilities, you have about 2.5 outs here even if you are behind to a set or overpair, giving you something like 12% to win. Yes, the pot odds are absolutely horrible, but at least you can't be drawing completely dead here.

If you fold, you are down 725 to 2945. If you call and lose, you are down to 2230. If you call and win, you are up to around 5485, which really puts you in a bullying position.

For me, it is a close decision between calling and folding, but since calling and losing isn't absolutely devestating (you'll still be second at the table), and it shows that you can't be pushed around, I would call despite not quite having pot odds. You will be up against AKs, 66, and 55 some of the time too, on a ragged flop like that too.

Feel free to criticize me for my horrible tournament strategy, but I feel that if you want to finish within the top 3, and not just barely make the money, you have to get lucky some times, and I feel this is a position where you have reletively little to lose, but a ton to gain.

[ZimbuTheMonkey]

Thanks guys.

I took a long time to think, and ended up calling. He had TT and won the pot.

But how did you fare in the tournament as a whole? Was that loss devastating to your chances? Or did you bounce right back?

[ZimbuTheMonkey]

I did pretty well after that. But then I lost some important coinflips and ended up hovering around average chips for most of the tourney.

I became shortstack with about 30 to go until the money. Blinds with 200/400 and it was folded to me on the SB, I pushed with 10-5, the BB was also shortstack so I expected him to fold pretty easily. He called with 86s and caught a 6 on the flop. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

EDIT: I was pretty proud of my play, except this hand. Currrently at the final table of a Super qualifier, 3 to go until we get the free seat. I'm doing well. /images/graemlins/smile.gif