Interesting bubble hand

[wiggs73]

We're 4 handed, on the button. Hero has t2800, SB has t2400, BB has t3000, UTG has t1800. Blinds are 100-200. UTG folds.

Hero has Ac8c and raises to t600, SB calls. SB generally is loose and not a very good player. BB folds. The flop comes AdKhQd. The small blind, who has made a number of small flop bets to this point, leads for t300. What's your play?

Note: I didn't actually play this hand. I'll post a link to where I found it after some discussion.

[scal78]

Has he been making $300 bets into $1400 pots often? When he does this, is he betting on a middle pair?

If it were me, and I had top pair or better, I'm making a stronger bet than $300. That seems like weakness, unless of course, he's just a bad player without much betting concept.

All things being equal. I'm raising here to about 900. If he calls, then I'll re-evaluate depending on the turn.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
The small blind, who has made a number of small flop bets to this point

[/ QUOTE ]

What did he show down?

This is a WAWB situation, I want to extract the most value when we're ahead and lose the least when behind; I think I play this hand pretty passively - I think the right thing to do is just call the flop.

[tigerite]

My play is to push preflop..

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

All things being equal. I'm raising here to about 900. If he calls, then I'll re-evaluate depending on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG this is terrible. What is that raise going to accomplish? It's 600 more to win 2600.

Raises that aren't pushes are not an option. But I don't really see a point in pushing unless you think he will call both preflop and on this flop with A3.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
My play is to push preflop..

[/ QUOTE ]

The stacks are much too deep for that, you're only going to be called by hands that dominate you to win a very small number of chips...

[wiggs73]

We think he would make this bet with a pretty wide range... any pair or better, any flush draw, and sometimes (but not as often) a gutshot draw or a bluff.

[Raiser]

I like a call here to see if his flop bet was serious or not. As Durron points out, if you raise you have to push and I don't want to commit all my chips to this hand.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a WAWB situation

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree. often when villain is behind he'll have something QJ or Td8d, or one of many other hands with a lot of outs.

and what are we way behind to? really only AQ/AK/sets. if we're up against a hand like AJ, we have 3 scoop outs and 6 chop outs, with 3 more chop outs on the way. certainly not an ideal situation, but not drawing dead. similarly for KQ - 5 outs then 8.

i like the line of calling though. i'd fold to a decent size bet on the next street and call a small one.

[durron597]

Yea, I made my post too quickly (as I am wont to do). Hm. I still like calling, but... we are actually behind to Kd Jd here.

Maybe call and release the hand if a diamond, J, or T hits? Get allin if the board pairs?

[schwza]

i don't know. this is a pretty tough spot, cause i think a likely hand for him is pair+g/s. so the board pairing might make his hand. i definitely agree with the part about folding if a diamond/J/T hits.

my inclination is to not make a bet/raise on this hand.

[ChuckNorris]

I don't think hero has reason to believe he isn't ahead, and I don't like giving away cheap cards to flush draws, gutshots and weaker kickers. So p00sh.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think hero has reason to believe he isn't ahead, and I don't like giving away cheap cards to flush draws, gutshots and weaker kickers. So p00sh.

[/ QUOTE ]

well said. you just swayed me. villain won't want to call a marginal hand here on the bubble, i think. i probably haven't given enough weight to hands like K8, Q7, etc if villain is loose/bad.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think hero has reason to believe he isn't ahead, and I don't like giving away cheap cards to flush draws, gutshots and weaker kickers. So p00sh.

[/ QUOTE ]

No better hand is folding, and I don't think any worse hands are calling. Why not wait a card to try to make a hand like K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif not be ahead anymore and push on a safe turn?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think hero has reason to believe he isn't ahead, and I don't like giving away cheap cards to flush draws, gutshots and weaker kickers. So p00sh.

[/ QUOTE ]

No better hand is folding, and I don't think any worse hands are calling. Why not wait a card to try to make a hand like K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif not be ahead anymore and push on a safe turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

you fear 9 diamonds, 3 J's, 3 T's, 3 K's, and 2 Q's, but you don't know which ones you should be afraid of. if you push now you can eliminate the guessing games.

[ QUOTE ]
No better hand is folding

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that might be true, but there are a lot of hands that you're slightly ahead of that you want to fold. QJ-type hands. and i think they will fold on the bubble, knowing they're almost definitely behind with up to 10 outs but maybe a lot fewer.

[wiggs73]

My first thought was to push too.

Here (http://www.mattmatros.com/math.htm) is where the hand came from. The hand on that page actually occurs once they're 3-handed, but later talks about the same hand at a hypothetical 4-handed table. I found the mathematical analysis to be interesting and surprising.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, if we call this opponent's bet, I believe he will bet the same T300 with his entire range, except maybe he'll drop some of the stone bluffs. And if we call him again, I think the same T300 bet is coming on the river with a similar range he bet the turn with.

[/ QUOTE ]

barring some in-depth read, which should have been mentioned in the original, this assumption is so wrong that trying to apply its conclusions to an actual hand is nuts.

the biggest thing i got out of that article is something i should have realized on my own a long time ago: once you get to 3-handed, the payouts are essentially 3 units for 1st, 1 for 2nd, 0 for 3rd. makes the whole "gamble for 1st" philosophy make more sense.

very interesting hand though, thanks for posting it.

[uphigh_downlow]

i definitely believe in not pushing here.

Calling is the best option. However I'm not entirely convinced that calling the turn is an equally good idea. I'm not entirely convinced that the villian will bet the river without much after two calls, or that Hero will(or should) try and value bet the river, unless he improves.

In addition, the pot is bigger on the turn. 900 more than the flop.

I'm too lazy to do it myself, but I would love to see some TE analysis of traising the turn, if a non cary card hits.

I think the min bet all along analysis might be too simplistic.