PDA

View Full Version : playing a rock?

tiltaholic
07-25-2005, 09:30 AM
SB is the precious. He's even better than a standard loose passive, because he sees the flop 75% of the time (never raising) and folds the flop when it doesn't please him. He's not tricky. He's like cashback on Discover card, only better.

CO is a tight aggressive player. He was a money-bag (oh-no!!). But really tight. And only aggressive when he has a monster, like, for example, flopping two pair or a full house. He was 9/6 preflop, and I suspect his aggression numbers are faulty (artificially high) since I saw him flop 2 monsters...and otherwise he's been fairly timid. Against me, I saw him check call down top pair king kicker on a board of blanks. (I had top pair queen kicker and raised his flop bet)

So. What to do you think?

Party Poker Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>,
DRKEVDC
07-25-2005, 09:48 AM
I would put rock on a big pair, KK, QQ. Your check raise should get him thinking you hit your set on the flop. The question here is on your read, do you think you can get the rock to laydown a big pair?
tiltaholic
07-25-2005, 09:51 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I would put rock on a big pair, KK, QQ. Your check raise should get him thinking you hit your set on the flop. The question here is on your read, do you think you can get the rock to laydown a big pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd say there is a zero percent chance he is laying down a big pair here.
TripleH68
07-25-2005, 10:16 AM
Even to a total rock your flop raise has to look suspicious. I would guess CO is calling this turn bet with just about anything.

Now when a brick or scare card hits the river will he lay down his hand?

In a blind/steal situation I have to think it is less likely, but certainly possible.
Aaron W.
07-25-2005, 10:17 AM
[ QUOTE ]
CO is a tight aggressive player. He was a money-bag (oh-no!!). But really tight. And only aggressive when he has a monster, like, for example, flopping two pair or a full house. He was 9/6 preflop, and I suspect his aggression numbers are faulty (artificially high) since I saw him flop 2 monsters...and otherwise he's been fairly timid. Against me, I saw him check call down top pair king kicker on a board of blanks. (I had top pair queen kicker and raised his flop bet)

[/ QUOTE ]

I like it. I don't think he's going to call down with unimproved overcards. But you may have to bet the river to get him to drop his AK or AQ. If he has an overpair, he's not going to muck it and you're going to lose money.

Have you seen a steal-raise out of him before? Since he's playing so tight, I think you might be able to narrow his raising standards. AA-99, AK-AT, KQ-KJ (106 hands = 8%) works as a starting point. If he's position-aware, then you might need to add a little bit more to it (but not much). Out of these, 73 are unimproved overcards, so you expect to steal this pot away about 75% of the time by the river. I like those odds...
DeathDonkey
07-25-2005, 10:17 AM
Yuck. This is closer to a preflop fold than anything else.

-DeathDonkey
07-25-2005, 10:22 AM
Grunching here.

I'm not sure I agree with your read on CO. If he only raises with two-pair or a full house, doesn't that make him weak-tight?

Since you've already had him check call down a pair with a good kicker, what makes you think you can get him to lay down whatever he has right now? Also, what are you representing with your check-raise? I don't think he'll believe that you played 5 4 for one bet out of the BB. If you're representing a flopped set, I think he's still gonna want to see it. I think he's likely to put you on a flush draw and you may get more than you can handle if the 3rd /images/graemlins/club.gif doesn't show up.

I probably do this wrong, but if I'm gonna try and make a move on this flop, I lead it. If a rockish player calls, then I know I'm in a rough spot and start looking for escape routes.

For this one though, I think I'd let this go on the flop unless I had a more specific read that CO would raise overcards worse than A J. If I had a /images/graemlins/club.gif, I'd be much more comfortable making a play for this pot.
Sasnak
07-25-2005, 10:25 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Yuck. This is closer to a preflop fold than anything else.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

???
topspin
07-25-2005, 10:34 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Yuck. This is closer to a preflop fold than anything else.

[/ QUOTE ]

AJs against a possible blind steal from the CO? I'd appreciate if you could share your reasoning, because this is an insta-call for me.

I think it's fine. He's likely to call your turn bet so you'll usually have to fire again on the river. But you could easily be inducing him to fold a better unimproved ace. You might even be ahead against a hand like KQ or KJ, which helps offset those times you're up against a big pocket pair.
parappa
07-25-2005, 10:47 AM
I think this is good so far, but what's our river plan? If we check/fold, I think that we've put to much into the pot, so I think we have to bet a blank.
DeathDonkey
07-25-2005, 10:48 AM
Rocks don't steal. Am I misreading the post, isn't this guy like 9/6??

-DeathDonkey
jrz1972
07-25-2005, 11:10 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Yuck. This is closer to a preflop fold than anything else.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

This is closer to a preflop 3-bet than it is to a preflop fold.
tiltaholic
07-25-2005, 11:21 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Rocks don't steal. Am I misreading the post, isn't this guy like 9/6??

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. i don't think i can 3-bet him for that reason.

i was thinking along the lines of aaron's post, ie, that he has overcards a lot more than a big pair here.
topspin
07-25-2005, 11:24 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Rocks don't steal. Am I misreading the post, isn't this guy like 9/6??

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. I guess it would have been nice if we knew how many hands tilt had on this guy to get those numbers, but they make this guy seem more like a rock than the TAG that was our hero's original read.

It would be interesting if someone that had Pokerstove compared our hand with a likely range of hands for someone with a PFR of 7. Getting 5:1 closing the action, this still seems like a profitable call but I don't have the numbers to back it up right now.
tiltaholic
07-25-2005, 11:34 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Rocks don't steal. Am I misreading the post, isn't this guy like 9/6??

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. I guess it would have been nice if we knew how many hands tilt had on this guy to get those numbers, but they make this guy seem more like a rock than the TAG that was our hero's original read.

It would be interesting if someone that had Pokerstove compared our hand with a likely range of hands for someone with a PFR of 7. Getting 5:1 closing the action, this still seems like a profitable call but I don't have the numbers to back it up right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's a tight aggressive rock. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

he is 9/6, his agg. was something like 2.5-3ish.

i had about 200 hands with him yesterday.
Entity
07-25-2005, 11:38 AM
&lt;jedi mind trick&gt;
This is not the flop you were looking for. Move on.
&lt;/jedi mind trick&gt;
Entity
07-25-2005, 11:42 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yuck. This is closer to a preflop fold than anything else.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

This is closer to a preflop 3-bet than it is to a preflop fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. If he's got ~200 hands on this guy (which he mentioned) it's closer to a preflop fold than a 3-bet and it's an easy fold if you're routinely trying to outplay tightttttttt aggressive players on flops like this.

Basically, the Donkey is correct on this one.

Rob
tiltaholic
07-25-2005, 11:45 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yuck. This is closer to a preflop fold than anything else.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

This is closer to a preflop 3-bet than it is to a preflop fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. If he's got ~200 hands on this guy (which he mentioned) it's closer to a preflop fold than a 3-bet and it's an easy fold if you're routinely trying to outplay tightttttttt aggressive players on flops like this.

Basically, the Donkey is correct on this one.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

doh.

i call too much out of the blinds it seems.
TomBrooks
07-25-2005, 11:47 AM
After your flop raise and Button's call, check the turn with the intention of checkraising. That ought to do it. You have 99! Ya, that's the ticket.
Entity
07-25-2005, 11:52 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yuck. This is closer to a preflop fold than anything else.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

This is closer to a preflop 3-bet than it is to a preflop fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. If he's got ~200 hands on this guy (which he mentioned) it's closer to a preflop fold than a 3-bet and it's an easy fold if you're routinely trying to outplay tightttttttt aggressive players on flops like this.

Basically, the Donkey is correct on this one.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

doh.

i call too much out of the blinds it seems.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't get me wrong. I think the preflop call is fine here. But I think the intent of outplaying a player who has a very narrow range in general here on this flop is pretty bad.

Rob
tor
07-25-2005, 11:57 AM
[ QUOTE ]
He's not tricky. He's like cashback on Discover card, only better.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes me wish 2+2 allowed signatures to be displayed.
tiltaholic
07-25-2005, 12:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yuck. This is closer to a preflop fold than anything else.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

This is closer to a preflop 3-bet than it is to a preflop fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. If he's got ~200 hands on this guy (which he mentioned) it's closer to a preflop fold than a 3-bet and it's an easy fold if you're routinely trying to outplay tightttttttt aggressive players on flops like this.

Basically, the Donkey is correct on this one.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

doh.

i call too much out of the blinds it seems.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't get me wrong. I think the preflop call is fine here. But I think the intent of outplaying a player who has a very narrow range in general here on this flop is pretty bad.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, ok, i see what you are saying. i thought you were referring to pf.

i'm trying to get a handle on flop textures on which to "outplay" opponents...i may have overestimated the my chances here.

if he's more of a "by the book" 16/9 tag, then i'd likely 3-bet pf and lead that flop (would be nice if i had one of my suit though)
tiltaholic
07-25-2005, 04:10 PM
hi all
thanks for the comments.
he folded to the turn bet.
at the time, i thought i picked off a pot with my snazzy read...but maybe i just got lucky instead.
sirana
07-25-2005, 05:04 PM
grunch

I fold this flop with only my two overcards and the wheel draw. I think you are only rarely ahead and might be behind to highPP,AK, AQ. Even if you're overcard outs were completely good (which they aren't) you are only getting 7:1 (assuming CO doesn't call) which is not enough to call or raise this.