Pushing over a raise with 88?

[pergesu]

***** Hand History for Game 2421024521 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14242060 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Monday, July 25, 07:41:54 EDT 2005
Table Table 13789 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: waxy12 ( $1540 )
Seat 2: blasterdan ( $395 )
Seat 3: papalukas ( $1560 )
Seat 4: lukbox ( $570 )
Seat 7: pattywack85 ( $960 )
Seat 8: WorldBTR ( $895 )
Seat 10: mcgheeworld ( $2080 )
Trny:14242060 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to pattywack85 [ 8s 8c ]
blasterdan folds.
papalukas raises [250].
lukbox folds.
pattywack85 is all-In [960]

[tigerite]

Whenever I do this, I'm usually looking at overs or an overpair. I've stopped it now unless I'm desperate, or have JJ+.

Then again they usually call me, if you have some kind of read that makes you think he'll lay it down I guess it's okay, but the problem is someone after you may choose to "look you up"..

[SammyKid11]

Barring reads, I can't say I love this play. You've got almost 10xBB and you've gotta figure you're a coin-flip at best here, completely dominated at worst. Not much in the way of FE unless you know this particular player (which I assume you would have mentioned in the post).

[Sabrazack]

I want JJ+ or AK here i think, maybe TT. It is an EP raise which even at the 20+2 can mean something.

[wiggs73]

I wouldn't do this without a read. As others have said, I think you're going to get called too much here in a coin-flip-at-best situation to make this profitable.

[durron597]

I'm looking for spots to do this. You can only steal so many blinds before you have to win a showdown, I'm trying to find spots to raise here with a lot less. Though last time I did it with suited connectors and got called by QQ; my flopped flush draw and gutshot both missed. Oh well.

That said, I would only do this with a read on the raiser that he could hava a blind stealing hand as opposed to a range like AQ+ 99+.

[gumpzilla]

I think this is okay. I think you'll move him off of a fair number of hands, and if he does play many hands here then I think your 88 will hold up okay against his calling range.

[Ixnert]

I do this now and then, but I like it a lot more if we're both a couple of positions later (e.g., him in the CO, me in the SB, say), where he's a lot more likely to be doing it with a blind-stealing hand.

That said, we don't always get to choose the spots we'd most prefer...

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is okay. I think you'll move him off of a fair number of hands, and if he does play many hands here then I think your 88 will hold up okay against his calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]

he'll be getting close to 2:1. i think he's calling with 99+, AQ+, and probably folding AJ. 88 does pretty bad against that range. and it does worse against the range that the remaining players call with (something like JJ+, AK).

if you were the BB pushing over the button/CO, i'd like it. i'd fold in your spot.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

he'll be getting close to 2:1. i think he's calling with 99+, AQ+, and probably folding AJ. 88 does pretty bad against that range. and it does worse against the range that the remaining players call with (something like JJ+, AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, what range do you think he's opening with? 88 doesn't do great against that range, it's true, but we also need to consider what fraction of his hands he's folding. I don't tend to like assuming that players at low buyins that I have no read on understand position, so I think the range on the initial bet is probably somewhat broad. Estimating against the range you've presented (no Stove on this computer) that 88 is about 35%, and assuming no calls in between you and the original bettor, it looks to me like you're +chip EV provided he folds 40% of the time you push. We should fudge this upwards because we're not taking the intermediate players into account, but if he's raising with some junkier hands - just adding any pair and AJ to that range, because I don't see him folding a pair and I think limping is not that appealing with these short stacks - you're already pretty close to this cutoff. I think that he'll be folding often enough.

[Unarmed]

Geez perg we've already had this conversation! /images/graemlins/grin.gif
Don't think, hey I have 88 with <10BB, think, hmmm what hands are UTG+2 raising into the field with 15BB with and how does my hand stack up against that range.

[J Chap]

Recently, I pushed my 88 here and was called by an overpair. THAT SAID,

I still think 250 is a pretty widely-used 2.5xBB steal attempt, and is often folded when reraised. Yes, he certainly could have a monster and just be fake-blind-stealing, but I think we're overestimating the likelihood of his calling the all-in. Haven't you seen a million cases where someone will make this 2.5BB raise - even from EP - and then, when reraised all-in (or for more than half of their own stack), think about it for like forever and then lay it down?

i think it was either Gigabet or some other strong poster who mentioned that UTG+2 is one of his favorite blind-stealing positions. Seems like a solid choice of his, to the extent that people with this level of position-based timidity might be lingering in his tourneys.

OK - I've said my piece. I don't want to overplay my level of certainty.

J Chap

[Isura]

I've been cutting down on this type of move lately. That smallish raise usually means a dominated hand, or AK "wanting action". Sometimes you run into the idiot who does it with KJ, but then it's usually a minraise. So I'd lay it down without a read, you still have 9bb to play with.