Folding Nut Flush to Turned SF? 5/10

[fimbulwinter]

woof.

SB is good, has called me a "LAG" before. he is maybe 20/9 and plays good postflop in the 2000 or so hands we've played. he also does know that this is my first time playing this high and has taken a few shots at me in the past, but nothing ridiculous or out of likely +EV range.

two ep's limp, I (1.75K) call on co with A5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, sb (covers) and bb come along too.

7/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif (50)

sb leads for 50, folded to me, I make it $200, he calls

8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (450)

sb pushes, it's about 1500 to me.

i can see a good player making a move like this with a set to try and blow me off the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (which i'd play like this) but it seems pretty reckless given the possibility of drawing dead.

easy fold? easy call? bueller?

fim

[Sandstone]

If SB is a half-way reasonable player, I muck this every day of the week and twice on Saturdays.

I just don't get the impression from your post that this guy has balls big enough to make this bet without actually having it.

[edge]

I'd expect someone with the SF to checkraise all-in here, so his push is a bit weird. Still, I don't think you can really call this.

[Groty]

You told him you really liked your hand by raising on the flop.

If he's holding the SF, isn't the best play for him to check the turn inducing you to put more money in the middle and then pushing? Given your flop play, I can't imagine playing a made SF from the SB any other way.

I'd definately call under these circumstances.

[TheWorstPlayer]

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If he's holding the SF, isn't the best play for him to check the turn?

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I'd definately call under these circumstances.

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Hmm....

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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If he's holding the SF, isn't the best play for him to check the turn?

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I'd definately call under these circumstances.

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Hmm....

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You can lose a lot of money thinking "why would he bet so much if he didn't want me to call?" Generally this kind of thought is only useful in cases where you haven't shown too much interest in the hand, but when you've put in a raise on the flop to show you like your hand, villain's huge bet is far less likely to be a bluff. As Worst Player so eloquently put it, the reason he would bet so much is that players often will think like y <font color="white"> </font> ou just did and pay him off.

[dtbog]

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8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (450)

sb pushes, it's about 1500 to me.

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A couple of people have mentioned that they would c/r the turn if they had the straight flush.

I think that's silly. If the straight flush checks, why the hell would the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif bet this turn? You're not going to extract any value from a worse hand, and you're not going to make a better hand fold -- so if sf checks, A /images/graemlins/spade.gif checks behind.

Also important is the fact that all you did was call preflop, and then put in a raise in position on the flop. Especially if he calls you a LAG, he must be thinking that you could have made this raise with more than just the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif... and he'd have to worry about you having a made flush on the flop that contains a jack, or a flopped straight with the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif, or a good draw that contains the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif. He shows none of this fear.

It seems far more probable to me that he would make this play with the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif than with any other two cards.

Question: if you agree with me and think this is a fold, what do you do with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in your hand?

[fimbulwinter]

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Question: if you agree with me and think this is a fold, what do you do with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in your hand?

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vomit on my keyboard, go broke and cry.

fim

[edge]

I agree that the most likely hand is J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, and you'll see it way more often than the pot odds given to you.

[mythrilfox]

I don't see how having the 6 of spades changes anything. He's not pushing with the 6 anyway, either you're up against the J or you're not.

This seems like a very clear fold to me. If he had the J, how could he expect to get any value out of the hand unless you make a heroic call on his overbet?

[Klepton]

what hand with a 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif or J /images/graemlins/spade.gif leads 50 into this flop?

[kagame]

flopped sf- ignoring the turn...

flopped flush w/OE sf draw

comeon

[fimbulwinter]

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what hand with a 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif or J /images/graemlins/spade.gif leads 50 into this flop?

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QJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif makes sense

fim

[fimbulwinter]

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This seems like a very clear fold to me. If he had the J, how could he expect to get any value out of the hand unless you make a heroic call on his overbet?

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let me bet?

fim

[kagame]

its not a clear fold at all, but the pot size compared to the all in is the key issue

i think the odds are the most important issue, your hand is just not good too large a % of the time

he expects a call from the As, and knows theres a good chance you have it, id say well over 50%

to do this with a set is just mindbogglingly ballsy to me

with his controlled aggressive image the pieces fall into place

you did fold right?

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[fimbulwinter]

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you did fold right?

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

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yeah, i folded.

I think its one of those situations where if presented with the math, he can be making a move a healthy amount of the time here and i still need to fold due to the me drawing dead vs him drawing live thing.

moreover, this is a fun hand to think about, but it's like "folding royals" in that if this is a leak in my game, it's a tiny one due to EV margins and frequency.

meh, it's late. for his sake i hope he had a set cos then i'd be proud as heck of him. nothing makes me happier than seeing somone make a monster semibluff, have some dolt completely miss the represented hand, and have him still complete his draw to win.

fim

[durrrr]

he doesnt have 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif ... FOLD tho

[not_da_nizzles]

With A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif then villain is drawing dead when he's making a move with a set. Call. Then come on here and tell everyone about how you got "out straight flushed".

mj

[TheWorstPlayer]

He has one out to chop.