Snapping off a Bluff (5-10 deep stack example)

[aggie]

Villian (5k) is a extremely LAGGISH with bad fundamentals but good instincts and player reading abilities. I have him covered.

4 Limpers to me in the cuttoff and i raise with AsKh. Villian (SB) and 2 of the original limpers call. Villian is getting frustrated with me as i have been making many big preflop raises and punishing limpers. I'm almost certain he called with less than a premium hand

pot (~325)

Flop (2s-4h-5c)

Checked around

Turn 6d (2s-4h-5c)

Villian leads out for 100 and it's folded to me. I have a strong feeling he's bluffing and that i'm ahead. If i call, he's very likely to bluff again on the river (he's likely to bet 200-400 no matter what he has). If i raise, he's very capable of playing back at me if he thinks i'm restealing (which he has seen me do many times before).

What's my move?

[xorbie]

What's his range right now? Any pp? SC? It really depends on how well AK UI holds up, and how much I might make if a K or A falls on the river and he check/calls or I call (raising seems wrong here because he could have spiked two pair with a suited ace, and raising a K here might get him to 3-bet a river which you may or may not be comfortable calling).

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
What's his range right now? Any pp? SC?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think villian is unlikely to check a overpair to me on the flop. He may have flopped a set, but as i said, i have a pretty good read that he is weak when he bets on the turn (although i'm far from certain). This guy loves to bluff when nobody seems interested in a pot but usually doesn't bet enough when he is bluffing.

[THATWACOKID]

If you feel that you are ahead and he's capable of playing back I think you should call him down.

What's wrong wiht folding (besides for the fact that it's not fun)? I also think it's a nice change of pace for your image.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
hat's wrong wiht folding (besides for the fact that it's not fun)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting 4-1 and i'm pretty sure i'm ahead.

Granted, i may get outdrawn, i'm going to face another bet on the river, and I may be wrong (In which case i'm behind already)

[xorbie]

I dunno about calling though. I mean, what are you trying to represent? I feel like he pretty much has to put you on either AK or a some sort of draw, and is going to bet the river again 100% of the time, so really you have to decide right now if your hand is good (which you seem to think it is). The question is, what are you doing if the turn comes a Q or J and he bets again (or bets strong?)

[Big_Jim]

Since you feel that villian is capable/likely to put in a re-raise (that you have to fold to) if you raise him on the turn, I think that calling down is the way to go.

Unless you frequently slowplay hands, the turn raise looks very much like a re-steal, making it even more likely to make a play on you.

If you raise the turn, you'd need to raise it to $400 or so, to avoid suspicion, and if he calls or plays back, you're either outplayed or behind.

If you call the $100 now, and the 200-400 on the river, you're calling basically the same amount. Admittedly, you let yourself get outdrawn sometimes, but if he is really willing to bet any two cards on the river, then this line should be profitable.

Furthermore, since you have such a good read on his play, you may be able to fold the river, if you think he caught his card.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian leads out for 100 and it's folded to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the miniscule size of the bet relative to the pot indicative of his hand range at all?

[THATWACOKID]

A call looks weak which means he'll more than likely fire again on the river. If you've been raising a lot preflop then a set/straight is very possible. Calling here would pretty much mean you would have to call the river, unless he bets huge.

If you've been raising preflop I like a raise here. What would your plan be if he plays back?

[THATWACOKID]

Does this guy tilt at all? Would he start spewing if you called him down and won with your ace high?

[thabadguy]

If you raise, waht do u plan on donig if he 3 bets?

[THATWACOKID]

I don't think there is any way he can call if he three bets.

[thabadguy]

Aggie said that villani is capable of playing back if he thinks aggie is restealing, in this case i dont think raising i a good idea.
Call him down

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
A call looks weak which means he'll more than likely fire again on the river. If you've been raising a lot preflop then a set/straight is very possible. Calling here would pretty much mean you would have to call the river, unless he bets huge.

If you've been raising preflop I like a raise here. What would your plan be if he plays back?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, if i call here the plan is to call anything reasonable on the river as well. If i raise here and he reraises i'm definitely folding.

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise, waht do u plan on donig if he 3 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Is the miniscule size of the bet relative to the pot indicative of his hand range at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes...I think villian is much more likely to bet this amount with either a 3 (a stright) or a bluff. If he has a hand that requires protection, he's unlikely to bet so small. So based on betsize alone, he's probably got either nothing or a monster

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Does this guy tilt at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

[ QUOTE ]
Would he start spewing if you called him down and won with your ace high?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe, but proably not dramatically. He was a big winner for the session so i don't think losing one minor pot was going to set him off. Althogh it would rub him the wrong way /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ML4L]

Hey aggie,

Given the information you provided, call the turn and call the river, checking behind if checked to. I don't see what there is to discuss...

ML4L

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the information you provided, call the turn and call the river, checking behind if checked to. I don't see what there is to discuss...

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks ML4L,

Yea, i guess you're right. What's probably not as clear as i originally made it sound is whether villian would bluff back at me if i raised. The chances of that were probably pretty small although they certainly did exist. I wanted to get a feel for whether it was better to let villian draw cheap to his 3-10 outer or to risk being rebluffed by a worse hand. In the actual hand i called the turn and had villian drawing dead to 3 outs.

[ML4L]

Hey aggie,

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given the information you provided, call the turn and call the river, checking behind if checked to. I don't see what there is to discuss...

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks ML4L,

Yea, i guess you're right. What's probably not as clear as i originally made it sound is whether villian would bluff back at me if i raised. The chances of that were probably pretty small although they certainly did exist. I wanted to get a feel for whether it was better to let villian draw cheap to his 3-10 outer or to risk being rebluffed by a worse hand. In the actual hand i called the turn and had villian drawing dead to 3 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if villain would rebluff the turn 0% of the time, I would always call rather than raise if I felt that there was a good chance that I stood to collect another bet on the river. If he's going to give up on most bluffs on the river, raise the turn. Also, the fact that this guy is betting 1/3 pot on the turn/river makes raising the turn better than if he were betting full pot on the turn/river. But, I still think it's a call based on the information provided.

ML4L

[FoxwoodsFiend]

Seems like a call-if you're ahead, only a call gets him to put in money without putting in enough on the turn or river to really put you to the test. Where is this 5/10 game? Did they start spreading new games up in Foxwoods?

[cero_z]

Hi aggie,

I don't get involved much in spots like this, where you kind of have to be a super hero to make it pay. But, sometimes you just want to put on your red cape and jump off the highest thing around. In that case...

if the guy hadn't seen me call down a couple of decent-sized bets with AK-high before, then I'd think for a while before calling, to make sure he thinks I have a very weak hand (like the one I have or something else bad like A4s). Then, if I thought he bought it, I'd call a big bet most of the time, and fold to a small bet somewhat more often than put odds indicate. The idea is to induce as many bluffs as possible, since presumably he doesn't think you can call again with just AK. If he thinks this and has a real hand, then why would he bet big? If he bets small, you can't automatically fold, because he may reason that "you wouldn't call a second bet with 'nothing' anyway, so why waste chips when [he's] wrong?" But, you cannot let him value bet you with a mediocre hand here--that's why I think it's important that he hasn't seen you call down with AK before.

People are saying that a check-behind is automatic on the river, but you have to consider his range. If it's one of those times when he might have nothing or a little something, but never a big hand, then a substantial bet (300 or so) is called for on the river, to ensure that you always win, as opposed to only winning when AK is good. But, maybe this guy's good enough to realize that you might call with AK and then bluff the river. Hard to say from here.

Good post, in any event.

[aggie]

yea....this was foxwoods....The 5-10 is a 1k minimum buyin and plays very deep. It usually only runs on the weekends (including Friday). It's the biggest semi regular NL game that's going these days.

[ML4L]

Hey cero,

[ QUOTE ]
if the guy hadn't seen me call down a couple of decent-sized bets with AK-high before, then I'd think for a while before calling, to make sure he thinks I have a very weak hand (like the one I have or something else bad like A4s). Then, if I thought he bought it, I'd call a big bet most of the time, and fold to a small bet somewhat more often than put odds indicate. The idea is to induce as many bluffs as possible, since presumably he doesn't think you can call again with just AK. If he thinks this and has a real hand, then why would he bet big? If he bets small, you can't automatically fold, because he may reason that "you wouldn't call a second bet with 'nothing' anyway, so why waste chips when [he's] wrong?" But, you cannot let him value bet you with a mediocre hand here--that's why I think it's important that he hasn't seen you call down with AK before.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis. It sounded like we didn't need to factor in bet size because Hero thought Villain would bet smallish no matter what, but in spots where that is not a given, your take regarding bet size is correct (unless the guy is good...).

[ QUOTE ]
People are saying that a check-behind is automatic on the river, but you have to consider his range. If it's one of those times when he might have nothing or a little something, but never a big hand, then a substantial bet (300 or so) is called for on the river, to ensure that you always win, as opposed to only winning when AK is good. But, maybe this guy's good enough to realize that you might call with AK and then bluff the river. Hard to say from here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this if the Villain is any good. By the same token that you would feel good about calling a river bet if Villain led big, what better hand do you think Villain is checking and folding to a substantial river bet? What hand does Hero represent? Unless he knows you to check behind on the flop with decent hands, you will surely get called on the river by bottom pair. Also, betting the river opens you up to a check-raise bluff which it sounds like this opponent is capable of making (although, if he had no pair, he would probably just lead the river again). Anyway, I don't think that you get a better hand to fold often enough to bet the river under most circumstances.

Mike

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]


People are saying that a check-behind is automatic on the river, but you have to consider his range. If it's one of those times when he might have nothing or a little something, but never a big hand, then a substantial bet (300 or so) is called for on the river, to ensure that you always win, as opposed to only winning when AK is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a key point. snapping bluffs and losing anyways sucks.

[lapoker17]

As the PF raiser, I bet that flop in position nearly always. The hand is either over, or then plays much more easily.