Damn donkeys

[TiltsMcFabulous]

Party Poker (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds, MP1 (unkown) raises, SB (unkown) calls, Hero calls </font>.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Sb bets, Hero calls.

What do you think of the river call?

[clownshoes]

I think youre done most of the time against this bet. No reads?

Also, up until now I always thought your name was TITSmcfabulous. Mustve been your avatar.

[JacksonTens]

River bet killed you. Its just so obvious, better luck next time.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[ArturiusX]

I hate that river call a lot. Hes callng down, suddenly decides to bet out, I dont think even a bluffer bluffs here.

[dantheman_05]

do you make this flop play often (say when u limp ep and there is a raise from lp)? why not 3 bet preflop? i fold river btw

[baronzeus]

He raised preflop here. I don't see him bluffing this river when a large portion of his hand range includes a king. This is a probable fold

[Harv72b]

You do realize that even if he's "bluffing" with AQ, you still lose?

I would need a read on this player as phenomenally bad and/or LAGgy before I even considered calling a river bet with AJ UI, getting only 7:1.

[TiltsMcFabulous]

[ QUOTE ]
He raised preflop here. I don't see him bluffing this river when a large portion of his hand range includes a king. This is a probable fold

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he called preflop.

My theory with the call was that either he was chasing a king or he wasn't. If he had AK, he probably would have reraised the LP raiser preflop or at least raised the flop. Something like KJ or KQ was possible, but he's unlikely to call on the flop and turn with those against this board. If he had the 7 or some straight/PP I would have heard about by on the turn.

I felt pretty strongly that there was a sufficient chance I was ahead given the pot odds I was being offered to call. I thought he was quite unlilkely to be chasing a K, and there was a decent chance he was just taking a stab. I was 90% convinced I was ahead on the flop and turn.

~ Tilts

[baronzeus]

My mistake.

I agree that there's a chance he's "bluffing" but I really don't think that even given the pot odds this is a good call. This is absent a read, of course.

[TiltsMcFabulous]

[ QUOTE ]
My mistake.

I agree that there's a chance he's "bluffing" but I really don't think that even given the pot odds this is a good call. This is absent a read, of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think that a busted spade draw is just about as likely as a king here? Many 3-6 players will take a shot at a scare-ish card with a busted draw on the river. Given the action (and for the reasons I explained earlier), I put the chances of him having a K at about 25%, a 7 at 10%, and a PP at 10%, and a better ace at 5%. That's about 50% of the time he's ahead, and even that might be generous.

I figured on a busted draw at 25%, a weaker ace at 10%, and a pure bluff with garbage at about 15%, so 50% of the time I am ahead.

It took me a long time to call, but when I did I was certain that the 8:1 odds I was being laid were more than sufficient. He only has to be bluffing or on a busted draw 12.5% of the time for me to break even on the bet, and if I am ahead a mere 25% of the time I am ahead I am making a good profit, not to mention many Sklansky bucks.

In the end, I really thought this was a clear call, but I was curious to see the responses here. I'll have to ponder them more, as the consensus seems to be it was an obvious fold when I thought it was (after some analysis) an obvious call.

~ Tilts

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
My mistake.

I agree that there's a chance he's "bluffing" but I really don't think that even given the pot odds this is a good call. This is absent a read, of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[TiltsMcFabulous]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My mistake.

I agree that there's a chance he's "bluffing" but I really don't think that even given the pot odds this is a good call. This is absent a read, of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then what about what I just wrote?

There has to be only a 12.5% chance he is bluffing for the call to be break even. You don't think he has a busted draw, crap ace, or nothing at all more than 12.5% of the time?

~ Tilts

[brettbrettr]

What do you think he could be drawing to on that flop?

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
There has to be only a 12.5% chance he is bluffing for the call to be break even. You don't think he has a busted draw, crap ace, or nothing at all more than 12.5% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are getting 7:1, not 8:1, to call the river bet (the bet you put into the pot to call with is the ":1" in the equation, because you are not "winning" this bet, merely risking it). So he has to be buffing with a worse hand 14.3% of the time, not 12.5.

Personally, again absent a specific read on this player, I don't think he's bluffing even 10% of the time. If you did in fact catch him on a bluff in this hand, congratulations--but that doesn't make your call correct based on the odds being offered.