Satellite hand 10 places from bubble

[blockafor]

Regular satellite (non-turbo). 35 left. 25 get seats to a WCOOP event. I have 18K and am sitting 20th in chips. UTG+2 (no reads) raises 4x to 8K and has me covered by about 5K. Folded to me in LP w/AK. Push? Fold?

[bobbycharles]

You have 9x BB so if you are playing you have to push.

That being said, at this stage in the tourney, most players are trying to protect their stack and get to the bubble. This means the villain, possibly being a TwoPlusTwoer, knows this and is raising with anything from any two face cards to a monster, realizing he probably won't get called.
If he is just called he can wait for the flop. If he's reraised and covered, it depends on his hand. Since he has you covered, but would be crippled on a losing toss up, I think he folds a push by you unless he has a hand. He wants to qualify just like you. The other option is he's a donk, and calls with a marginal hand, gets lucky and knocks you out.

In this situation, I'm folding and waiting for an opportunity to steal a blind or two myself and sail into the qualifier.

[adanthar]

Let's put it this way: depending on the stacks (a LOT depends on the stacks) you should give serious consideration to folding QQ here.

[teamdonkey]

table conditions would really, really affect my decision here. If you're 20th with only 9BB, this thing is going to be over in 4-5 orbits. A couple of successful steals and you're in. Any giant stacks on your left? Will you have the chance to steal a couple times?

i wouldn't fold QQ here, but AK probably.

[LotsOfOuts69]

I agree, I would reraise all-in with QQ,KK,AA and fold everything else.

You can definitely steal your way in, if you can avoid a showdown the rest of the way, that would be most ideal.

--LoO

[blockafor]

I don't have much experience in these satellites and made the fatal mistake of pushing and the initial raiser hesitated but then called w/KK. At this table, blind steals had been going uncontested for awhile so I should have focused on that instead of playing behind a pf raiser.

If 25 seats are getting paid, and I'm in the top 25 in chips, at what point (how many people left) can you slow down your play and just coast by picking up blinds? 60 left? 50 left? 40 left? Whenever the rest of the table slows down? Any other methods to judge this?

I appreciate the advice.

[betgo]

I don't think pushing was a terrible play. The raiser could have had a weaker hand and folded or called a 3-1 dog. If you steal, you could run into a big hand that way too.