66 PF decision

[DavidC]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero folds...

The PFR is something like 15-7, and the PFRR is 22-7

Here's what I'm thinking:
I have no guarantee that the limper will call (though the limper's loose). If he doesn't, and it's 4 bets, I'm looking at something like 3:1, and it's going to get ugly.

Since the PFR guy is only pfr 5 (large sample, like 150+ hands on both villains...), chances are that he has a good enough hand to cap with.

However, both opponents are aggressive post-flop.

[Xiphoid]

I'd fold as well.

[toss]

Isn't 4 to the flop enough for any pair to call? UTG will probably call one more bet and CO will probably come too. Even if its cap its still a call right?

[Xiphoid]

You may be right. I always like to have a few more players to pad the pot to make this cold-call.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't 4 to the flop enough for any pair to call? UTG will probably call one more bet and CO will probably come too. Even if its cap its still a call right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I was getting somewhere between 10:2 (5:1) and 16:3, with the worst case being something like: 13:3. I hadn't calculated it quite precisely at that time, though.

Also, my position sucks, as I'm stuck in the middle of two players who are aggressive, thinking players.

Thing is, for me to take 13:3, since I need 22.5:3 (actually, when you consider that there's going to be a rake of at least a SB I need 23.5:3 odds) in implied odds...

That leaves me having to make up 10 SB, or 5 bb, on later streets.

Not only does the pot have to get up 5 BB, but it can't be my money: i.e. if I put in 2 bb and they put in 4 bb, that's 6 more bb in the pot, but since 2 of it's mine, I didn't make any money.

Also, let's say I get exactly 5 bb in there against AA and KK on a 569j2 board.

Did I get my odds? No. Because they had 2 outs on each street to hit their top set... Therefore I need to get MORE than the 5 bb.

That leaves me with a few questions (I was looking to get these answered):

AGainst two aggressive opponents, am I going to get more than 5 BB worth of EV (i.e. not taking into account their chance to win the hand) into the pot, on the rest of this hand?

Now that I think of it, probably... If I can get 2 SB from each on the flop, then one from each on the turn and river, that's 6 bb... not really enough. I guess I have to count on either more money going in on the flop, or on getting multiple bets in on the turn.

So how the hell do I go about maxing the set value? Clearly I need to get the cash in there on the turn, I guess... and depending on the nature of the board, if it's a medium two-tone, it's great, because I can call along on the flop and it looks like I'm on a flush draw, and they can whipsaw me to their heart's content.

Should I be looking to checkraise the turn? If the flop is capped between those two guys on a low board, and the BB leads into me again (indicating aa?) then do I raise at this point? I don't think that the original pfr behind will be raising with KK... So should I just get my raise in and hope that the original PFR calls two cold on the turn, then I bet the river and get two calls? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Keep in mind that I'm not putting them on AA and KK right now, but I'm curious about how to max out my money here.

--Dave.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I was getting somewhere between 10:2 (5:1) and 16:3, with the worst case being something like: 13:3. I hadn't calculated it quite precisely at that time, though.


[/ QUOTE ]
If you call MP3s going to be getting really good odds and will probably call. I would guess it's very likely you're going to be getting 17-3 on your call. And if it doesn't get capped, the worst you can do is 11-2.

I think you have to call getting almost 6-1. Yes you have to pick up some extra bets postflop but this is somewhat easier with aggressive opponents.

However, this is definitely a close call and you're not giving up a lot by folding (and you're reducing your variance).

[Redd]

I'd call it. I'm not that worried about being sandwiched between TAGs because this hand plays pretty straightforwardly postflop. You're likely getting MP3 to come along and there's no guarantee it'll even be capped. And you'll make a fortune when you do hit.

[elindauer]

Call. It's not always capped, and when it's not, you have a highly profitable call. When it is capped, it's obviously closer, but you're still doing fine. This pot is going to be a monster.

Good luck.
Eric

[baronzeus]

Whattttttttttttttttttttt

/images/graemlins/frown.gif

I call this every time. Flopping a set will rip the balls off of PFR and 3bettor like 80% of the time. You'll usually get like 6 or 7 extra big bets in a pot like this, making it a good call.

[dantheman_05]

i dont think you put nearly enough thought into this post...go back and put some real effort into it..stop being lazy

[toss]

is this sarcasm?

[dantheman_05]

yes, but a lame attempt i guess

[Entity]

I can't remember the last time I folded a pocket pair in this situation.

[B Dids]

If you never fold once you've limped in, you won't ever be making that bad of a decision. People folding here need to stop.

[krimson]

[ QUOTE ]
You may be right. I always like to have a few more players to pad the pot to make this cold-call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a "cold-call". We already have 1 sb on the table so the odds this call is laying us is pretty nice, even if it gets capped and reduces these odds a bit further we are guaranteed some good action if we hit our set. I call this 100% of the time.