Ace-King bubble play, fold preflop?

[diconoclastx]

Villain has been raising often preflop. It could easily be any ace, any broadway, any pair less than TT. Do you call or fold here?

***** Hand History for Game 2417591713 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:14222848 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Sunday, July 24, 18:10:16 EDT 2005
Table Table 11246 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: assassin_sf ( $1400 )
Seat 5: TonyT7 ( $595 )
Seat 8: ChickiePoo ( $5240 )
Seat 9: HERO ( $2765 )
Trny:14222848 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Kd Ah ]
assassin_sf folds.
TonyT7 folds.
ChickiePoo is all-In.
HERO ?

[bluefeet]

"what AK? i didn't see any AK?" - gotta let it go /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[kasey2004]

insta-muck

/images/graemlins/spade.gif Kasey /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[diconoclastx]

OK. What happens if HERO had QQ or JJ here? Which hands will HERO call with in this position?

[bluefeet]

AA, KK. maybe QQ if i was felling frisky. i fold JJ.

[AlphaN3rd]

I was in a similair situation today. I knew that at worst I was dominated, and at best I was a slight underdog.

I foolishly called, and he showed queens.

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
I was in a similair situation today. I knew that at worst I was dominated, and at best I was a slight underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

w00t? Villain should and could be pushing any two here, not to mention weaker aces than AK. (You still have to fold of course.)

[Karak567]

easy fold, if I am the big stack I am pushing any two, but it is still an easy fold

can someone explain why this is such an easy fold? if hero doubles up, he becomes chip leader and in a good position to win the tournament. he's most likely ahead.. why not call?

I agree,

Screw thrid lets win.

is that sarcasm? 1st place is how you win money playing SNGs, not 3rd. i understand that you'd be out of the tournament if you lost, but can someone post the math that shows why this is a clear fold?

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree,

Screw thrid lets win.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find that it's easier to win once I'm ITM. This is an insta-fold. Not even close. If you're seriously thinking about calling here, you need to use the search function and read all the bubble posts you can find.

[11t]

I fold instantly.

It would be a lot cooler if he was doing it with 72os.

[skierdude1000]

Ok I notice a quick trend in this thread.... all the constant posters and big players seem to say insta-fold...

I'm in the pool of people who say call, but I'm guessing this is not +ev play. Someone want to explain how the hell this is a fold? BIG SLICK! I mean, why wouldn't you usually be ahead in this hand?

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm in the pool of people who say call, but I'm guessing this is not +ev play. Someone want to explain how the hell this is a fold? BIG SLICK! I mean, why wouldn't you usually be ahead in this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the relative chipstacks. You are virtually a lock to ITM if you don't do anything stupid. Would your opinion change if the shortstack had 1 chip?

There is a huge difference between AK and QQ in this spot. Name a hand that AK is favored 4:1 over. AKo is only slightly better than 2:1 over 27o. Over a hand such as 56s, it is slightly worse than 3:2. Why would you want to take such a large chance at finishing OTM when there is such a shortstack left in the game? This is the very reason why the bigstacks are able to pwn at bubble time.

You just have to suck it up and let the bigstack have his fun here. He is correct in being aggressive, and you are correct in letting him do it.

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
can someone explain why this is such an easy fold? if hero doubles up, he becomes chip leader and in a good position to win the tournament. he's most likely ahead.. why not call?

[/ QUOTE ]

putting villain on a pretty loose range of: 66+,A7s+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+, there is a 40% chance that Hero will lose this hand. given the sizes of the two remaining stacks, this is an unacceptable risk.

even if you loosen the range too include the top 65% of preflop hands, Hero is 35% to go home. it would be a lot better to push K8s into the short stacks oh the next hand IMO.

[curtains]

It is a clear fold but Im too lazy to write the math. Surely someone else will come to the rescue.

[curtains]

btw forget that range, put villian on range of any 2 cards... as Im sure the villian will be pushing in this spot.

[HonestIago15]

Yo Skierdude

It's not always about whether or not you're a favorite to win the hand. It's about whether or not your chances to win the hand are sufficient to make the hand worth playing. You can have situations where you'll probably be ahead, but not enough to make calling profitable.

Dig?

Remember that though you generally must accumulate chips to do this, your goal is not actually to accumulate chips but to place in the money

[derdo]

It is a marginal call (EV=~0) even if he shows his A7o which is probably the best case. All calling here does is, it takes some of your and big stack's equity and give it to the short stacks.
Think of it as if you were the short stack: Wouldn't you be happy if 2nd stack called an all in raise and risked busting? (even with two aces)