Check/call or bet/call?

[baronzeus]

Folding is clearly wrong, but my read says he probably just completed a draw. I think check/call is right, but I'm not sure.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ???

[blackize]

Id be afraid, very afraid and just check call. Both of the obvious draws just arrived.

[Catt]

I really don't like giving a free river to the A, K or Q of hearts. What sorts of hand ranges are you putting Villains on that they might contain an 8? Or is it only the flush draw that you think is realistic?

[Brunger]

While he could have a draw he could also just have overcards and would fold to a bet but if given a free card could easily out draw. Is he the type of player that would raise a draw on the flop here as I believe a lot would. I would bet/call.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't like giving a free river to the A, K or Q of hearts. What sorts of hand ranges are you putting Villains on that they might contain an 8? Or is it only the flush draw that you think is realistic?

[/ QUOTE ]


Villain is 46/4 so this can be A8s/K8s/Q8s, any really any decent hearts hand.

[Paxosmotic]

Can't give a stronger single heart infinite odds here. Bet/call the turn, check/call or check/fold the river. Folding is wrong on the turn, but I don't know that it's wrong on the river if he just completed a draw.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Can't give a stronger single heart infinite odds here. Bet/call the turn, check/call or check/fold the river. Folding is wrong on the turn, but I don't know that it's wrong on the river if he just completed a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the problem here is assuming he has a higher heart here. I don't think his call on the flop has any indication as to this statement. Also, there are a lot more hansd that raise me here than check behind.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really don't like giving a free river to the A, K or Q of hearts. What sorts of hand ranges are you putting Villains on that they might contain an 8? Or is it only the flush draw that you think is realistic?

[/ QUOTE ]


Villain is 46/4 so this can be A8s/K8s/Q8s, any really any decent hearts hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, but against an 8 you have a redraw to the flush, and against a made flush you have a redraw to a higher flush unless one of them has the A, K, or Q. If their hand ranges include A7s, K8s, Q8s, then certainly they also include hands like AT, A9, A7, A5, etc. My point is that your hand is extremely vulnerable here and checking is, IMHO not a good plan unless you have some really strong read on their post-flop play (i.e., they wouldn't call the flop with a gut, TP, etc. and would need a FD or OESD to call one small bet on the flop).

If you're raised things look really pessimistic, but that fact shouldn't prevent you from betting your vulnerable made hand.

[Bodhi]

I don't understand how you can have such a good read on someone who plays more than 40% of his hands.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand how you can have such a good read on someone who plays more than 40% of his hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

He was fairly aggressive, meaning he had the capability to fold on the flop.

[ArturiusX]

Bet-call. We have outs vs a baby flush/a made straight. If he had T4 or some misc crap we'd hate to give the free card here.

[brettbrettr]

I'm betting this.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 46/4 so this can be A8s/K8s/Q8s, any really any decent hearts hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
Or 22, 33, 44, A2 with or without a heart, KQ, KJ, .................

I think it's a pretty easy bet/call. You certainly shouldn't be worried about the hearts. It's just not likely. And sure an 8 is possible. But there are just sooooo many possible hands here for someone that is this loose that I can't see checking the turn.

[baronzeus]

I'm not surprised you guys all said bet. Until today I bet this 100% of the time. But today I was reading Ciaffone and he said something to the effect of "when you have outs and there is a good chance you are beat, checking is the right move" in this situation on the turn. I'll try to find the specific passage.

Ciaffone seems a little weak tight for this forum's liking anyhow.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not surprised you guys all said bet. Until today I bet this 100% of the time. But today I was reading Ciaffone and he said something to the effect of "when you have outs and there is a good chance you are beat, checking is the right move" in this situation on the turn. I'll try to find the specific passage.

Ciaffone seems a little weak tight for this forum's liking anyhow.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's reminiscent of the section in HEPFAP which says to bet when you have no outs and check when you have outs. A section which I've never understood and have smiled and nodded at since the first time I read it.

[Catt]

The Ciaffone statement is fine. The difference in opinion (at least mine) is "good chance you're beat." There is simply very little about this hand that suggests that the chance you are beat is "good" IMHO.

HEPFAP makes a point of the need to check lots of hands on the turn (good and "bad" hands); but I think this view flows from a belief that your typical opponent's flop peeling stadards are significantly different from the standards I see employed in our games.