After the hand...

[HonestIago15]

This post is more about what to do AFTER this hand than the hand itself (although comments on how I played the hand would be welcome, I just moved up to the 20's recently and I'm noticing that being all in with QQ early on is SIGNIFICANTLY more dangerous than at the 10's)

As you may or may not be able to tell from the HH, I was stuck with 30 chips just before the big blind after this hand. My question is: how do you play the microstack after losing a hand like this? Do you even bother trying to come back from it by playing well? My guess is that it's much, much more +EV to just push any 2, hope to lose (or quintuple up) and start a new game so you can make the most of your time. Thoughts?


***** Hand History for Game 2417569882 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14224152 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Sunday, July 24, 18:06:30 EDT 2005
Table Table 14103 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: rrjarvis14 ( $770 )
Seat 2: macflush21 ( $955 )
Seat 3: shilts1982 ( $1005 )
Seat 4: tympty ( $785 )
Seat 5: ybchoi ( $800 )
Seat 6: villacher ( $1275 )
Seat 7: MrDragon999 ( $800 )
Seat 8: chask207 ( $885 )
Seat 9: boatgirl69 ( $725 )
Trny:14224152 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to MrDragon999 [ Qh Qc ]
ybchoi folds.
villacher folds.
MrDragon999 raises [80].
chask207 folds.
boatgirl69 folds.
rrjarvis14 raises [250].
macflush21 folds.
shilts1982 folds.
tympty folds.
MrDragon999 is all-In [720]
rrjarvis14 is all-In [520]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, Td, 6c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ac ]
** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
rrjarvis14 shows [ Kd, Kh ] two pairs, kings and sixes.
MrDragon999 shows [ Qh, Qc ] two pairs, queens and sixes.
MrDragon999 wins 30 chips from side pot #1 with two pairs, queens and sixes.
rrjarvis14 wins 1565 chips from the main pot with two pairs, kings and sixes.

[valejo]

I think it's okay to just call the pre-flop raise and plan to push with an overpair on the flop. Without a read, I'm not folding this pre-flop. Is this a bad beat post?

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's okay to just call the pre-flop raise and plan to push with an overpair on the flop. Without a read, I'm not folding this pre-flop. Is this a bad beat post?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, it isn't. 99 will pay you off right now. Get them to pay you off.

After the hand, you've just got to be desperate, move in a lot, and play as best you can.

[bluewilde]

Yeah, people have posted in the past about comebacks from T15, and today I made it to 2nd despite a low of 90. Certainly you just have to get lucky to make a huge comeback, but it's worth trying to fight it out instead of jumping straight away into a 2nd game on tilt.

[HonestIago15]

Do you really think the very, very slight chance that you'll come back and place in a tournament is worth the time spent? Assuming that you can control your tilt, I would think it would be more profitable long-term to start a new tournament rather than playing one that is almost hopeless.

What's the chance that you'll come back and place in a tournament when it's T15 and you have a stack of 50 chips? If we know this we can work out mathematically which is a more desirable choice: throwing this tournament and starting a new one or trying to win the one you're in.

[HonestIago15]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think the very, very slight chance that you'll come back and place in a tournament is worth the time spent? Assuming that you can control your tilt, I would think it would be more profitable long-term to start a new tournament rather than playing one that is almost hopeless.

What's the chance that you'll come back and place in a tournament when it's T15 and you have a stack of 50 chips? If we know this we can work out mathematically which is a more desirable choice: throwing this tournament and starting a new one or trying to win the one you're in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, sorry, when I made that last post I was multitabling and didn't quite realize this was the perfect place to use an ICM calculator.

Here's the situation under consideration:

10 people left in level 1 of a PP 20+1
8 people at T800
Villain at T1550
Hero at T50

The question: Is it worth attempting to place in this tournament, or should a new one be started?

According to ICM, Hero is worth 0.0069, or .69% of the prize pool - $200. Obviously, .69% of the prize pool is $.1.38, so attempting to win this tournament is worth that much.

Now lets consider the value of throwing the tournament.

Assuming you have a 30% ROI at the 20+1 tournaments and spend an average of 15 minutes playing the first tournament if you DON'T attempt to throw it (I think this is entirely reasonable, considering that sometimes you will double up and remain in the tournament for longer - sometimes even the 40 or so minutes that are left of it if you happen to make the money), then the value of attempting to throw the tournament is

[(15 minutes)/(average tournament time)] * [(ROI) * (22)]

Assuming that the average tournament time at the 20's is 45 minutes, we get

(.333)*[(.3)*22]=

(.333) * (6.6)=

$2.20

So the EV of playing out the tournament for these numbers is $1.38, while the EV of throwing it and starting a new one is $2.20. I realize that this outcome is entirely dependant on the numbers I put into it, but I believe these to be pretty standard numbers for a good 2+2 player.

Any thoughts/comments/flames?

Edited to correct a math typo

[bluewilde]

Well, at T15, whether you really focus and try to win or not, your games probably almost over (or you survive and build back to the point from which it's worth fighting). I wasn't going to argue that it's worth your time to play with anything less than 100 chips, because you have very little control over how the game goes. I just wanted to make the point that with as little as 150/200 chips, you still have enough of a shot to make it worth trying...at least I think you do. But no, 30 chips 50 chips, 15 chips, I thinnk at that point whether you give up and shove or wait two hands and then shove, it's pretty much over.