jt1
07-24-2005, 05:57 PM
PP $5 + $1 three table tourney with about 21 players left. Blinds are 50,100. I have 450 chips left in BB with 9-10o. There are 4 limpers, one UTG who plays every hand, the CO, button, and SB. 250 chips in the pot. I go all-in.
Now let me do the math: If I'm called 25% of the time or less, this play should be EV+. Out of 10 times, I'll win 625 chips when everyone folds. Of the 7.5 times that at least one person calls, I should win about 33% of the time, right? If that is correct, I'll win at least 675 chips 2.457 times out of ten, which equals 1658 chips. The total is 2283 chips. The 4.953 times out of ten where I'll be called and loose, I will loose a total of 2269 chips. 2283 > 2269 so this should be slightly EV+. Am I missing something?
Thanks for answering my question even though I'm not a regular.
Now let me do the math: If I'm called 25% of the time or less, this play should be EV+. Out of 10 times, I'll win 625 chips when everyone folds. Of the 7.5 times that at least one person calls, I should win about 33% of the time, right? If that is correct, I'll win at least 675 chips 2.457 times out of ten, which equals 1658 chips. The total is 2283 chips. The 4.953 times out of ten where I'll be called and loose, I will loose a total of 2269 chips. 2283 > 2269 so this should be slightly EV+. Am I missing something?
Thanks for answering my question even though I'm not a regular.