Curious line by villain, whats the read?

[DJ Sensei]

24+2 qualifier tourney, top 2 get seats in a 100+8, 3rd gets a second chance.

Villain #1 is of questionable skill and is prone to playing weak hands, so I don't give his raise much credit.
Villain #2 has also been known to play weak hands.


Seat 1: notinvolved ($1,990 in chips)
Seat 2: notinvolved ($1,480 in chips)
Seat 3: notinvolved ($1,530 in chips)
Seat 4: villain #1 ($1,650 in chips)
Seat 5: notinvolved ($1,480 in chips)
Seat 6: notinvolved ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 7: notinvolved ($1,285 in chips)
Seat 8: villain #2 ($1,430 in chips)
Seat 9: hero [K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif,Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif] ($1,320 in chips)
Seat 10: notinvolved ($1,335 in chips)

Blinds are 10/20

PRE-FLOP
villain #1 bets $50, folds, villain #2 calls $50, hero calls $50, folds.

FLOP [board cards 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif,K /images/graemlins/club.gif,2 /images/graemlins/club.gif ] Pot = $180
villain #1 bets $75, villain #2 calls $75, hero raises to $200, villain #1 calls $125, villain #2 raises to $1,305 and is all-in, hero ?


I'm fairly sure its an easy fold after the push (right?), but am more interested in the read on the villain, given his unconventional line.

[Profit]

you know as i started typing a response that move is more unusual than i originally thought. My first response is a weak king, protecting vs the flush. But since you raised, im not sure if he would put you on the flush draw and instead you would think he would be able to beat just a king to make such a move. However, with #1 just calling he may have put him on flush draw and decided to take down this pot right now with his king. i think i fold here simply because i still have ~50bb's. If i call here, #1 may come along with his flush draw. Putting in random possible cards the best i see you being here is a ~52% favorite.

[ChuckNorris]

I think a flush draw could be a reasonable, yet still curious hand for villain. First he calls, hoping that you call too to give him good odds, but after the raise changes his mind and decides to semibluff. His raise does look pretty scary. A set is unlikely I think because the all-in is such a big raise. Could be TPTK or TPGK too.

[Matt R.]

Who were in the blinds in this hand? I think I'd put him on 44, 22, or a semi-bluffed flush draw most of the time. Without a read, I'd definitely fold this. AA, AK, KK, or a weaker K would also kind of make sense, but I wouldn't expect to see it that often from a decent player (but without a read, I wouldn't completely discount these hands). Anyway, if you did call, I'd expect to see the 22, 44, or 2 clubs with equal frequency, and since it's really early I'd go ahead and fold.

[DJ Sensei]

villain #1 was UTG preflop, villain #2 and I were MP

[valejo]

Dan,

I think it's probable he is holding twos or fours in the hole. He calls the flop bet trying to avoid scaring out you (a potential extra $75), but likes your raise enough to go ahead.

Of course he could be holding something else, but this makes the most sense to me. Regardless, I think it is easy to fold here.

[DJ Sensei]

My best estimate of his hand was either the nut flush draw or a set.

With the flush draw, he just called the continuation bet in position on the preflop raiser, my raise probably meant a strong king (or possibly a set). After the preflop raiser called too, the pot was big enough for him to push his nut flush draw on a +EV semibluff.

With the 44 or 22 set, similar reasoning applies. He coldcalls the bet from the preflop raiser with position, hoping to get more out of him on later streets. When I raise and #1 calls, he sees the big pot and decides to get it all in, hoping to get called by a flush draw or a strong king.

I think AA or KK are unlikely, given the preflop action. AK is a decent possibility too, although I think AK would probably also usually reraise preflop.

In any case, I think folding is a good move this early in the tourney, still have plenty of chips, and probably am either well behind or not far ahead.