KJs UTG river decision (Party 30/60)

[steveyz]

First time playing in about 2 month (due to a lot of traveling). No read or stats on any of the opponents here.

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Party Poker (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

I raise, EP folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>

BB checks, I bet, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, I bet, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, BB folds.

River: 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero ???

[CanKid]

I'm betting, I think JT will check behind here but would call 1 more bet.

[ShortySaurus]

very easy bet....

[steveyz]

Call a raise or no?

I would check call. You've got 3 people in the hand with a 4 straight as well as the nut straight (Q/J). Those people all called 2 cold preflopo. Your hand is behind to A/K, K/Q, Q/J, K/10 and as of the river any hand with an 8. You also chop with any other K/J. If it's raised are you planning on calling? I dont see how you can call or want to call if the river is raised here.

I just saw your post above mine. Like I said I can't see how you call a raise here. All you beat is a pure bluff. There are too many legitimate hands that are raising this river for you to think your K/J is good here. That's why I don't see how this is an easy bet.

[goofball]

I don't see how this is an easy bet either. What range of hands have you assigned to your opponents here?

[elindauer]

Without reads, I bet for value and don't think it's close. If I give my opponents much respect... well, how could they have played their hand this way? They just have to be the loose passive payoff machines against whom a river value bet is clear.

Good luck.
Eric

[ike]

Some awful pair. What range of hands are you putting them on that we're in trouble? Sure if they were any good they'd have to have us beat here, but I keep betting these rivers and I keep getting called by Ax awful pair.

[samdash]

Where do you find these guys? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[steveyz]

Without a read, would you call a raise?

The flop and turn are definite bets. The fact that no one raised the turn should tell you that the nut straight isn't likely.

I think a bet here is marginal and will probably even out in the long run. I'd give it a 50/50 as to whether you're winning or not. You're likely to not get more than 1 caller if you're winning, and a straight is definitely going to raise. If you're raised you have to fold as there are very few hands you can expect to be raised by and still beat (I can't think of any, except a bluff).

However if you check/call then you know that the JT, QT, or AT will be checking behind you most likely, while the straight (and/or 2 pair) will be betting. So then the portion of the time you're winning you'll get nothing for it, while the portion of the time you're losing you still will be calling.

So checking/calling means half the time you win nothing and half the time you lose 1BB (-.5BB), versus betting out and losing 1BB half the time vs winning 1BB half the time (0BB). Given their passive play in the rest of the hand, I think that you can throw a bet out here and expect AT to call.

[highlife]

[ QUOTE ]
However if you check/call then you know that the JT, QT, or AT will be checking behind you most likely, while the straight (and/or 2 pair) will be betting. So then the portion of the time you're winning you'll get nothing for it, while the portion of the time you're losing you still will be calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

alot of players with a T will bet the river here, especially the player on the button. some may even bluff in a threeway pot.

check/call, you often may get someone to bet a worse hand which makes up for the value you are losing by not betting (along with the possibility of being raised).