TPMK river decision, 2/4 party full table

[spahk]

this kind of situation comes up a lot. i'm still unsure what to do. SB villian in this hand is (i think) a winning player. a little on the aggressive side. i have a tight image.

Party Poker (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
3 folds. Hero raises to $15. 3 folds. SB calls $13. 1 fold.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks. Hero bets $25. SB calls $25.

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB bets $80. Hero?

thanks in advance.

[stu-unger]

i think i call expecting to chop a really high percentage of the time, maybe i suck. i just dont see a 3, a boat or AK playing it this way. maybe he missed a check raise on the turn but i call and expect to see another ace.

[kongo_totte]

With the turned flush draw, I bet the turn.

[Voltron87]

fold, its sort of close.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I usually call and regret it. I still think you're ahead enough of the time to make this a call, though. That check behind on the turn induces enough bluffs to make this a call.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
With the turned flush draw, I bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I definitely check with the turned flush draw. Why let him c/r you off it?

[spahk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With the turned flush draw, I bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I definitely check with the turned flush draw. Why let him c/r you off it?

[/ QUOTE ]

my thoughts exactly, but is this check inducing bluffs i can't call?

people seem to be all over the place on this one, but i feel like it is a pretty common situation. how often do i have to chop for a call to be +ev here? how often am i ahead?

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think you're ahead of a K a fair amount of the time. I think it's close, but I think it's a call. Obviously you will be behind a 3 or AK some of the time as well. And some of the time you'll be chopping (although it is hard to come up with an ace hand that calls the flop bet.) Probably you're behind a 3 40%, ahead of a king 20%, ahead of a lower pocket pair 20% and chopping with an ace 20%. Something like that? Obviously those numbers are PIDOOMA and could be very far off and are also dependend on the playing style of the opponent.

[spahk]

thanks for all the replies. i couldn't see how an ace called the flop bet unless it was with a king or 3. a plain king leading the river for the full pot when the ace hit seemed unlikely as well. that's more of a check-call-to-snap-off-bluffs kind of holding. i figured at the time that it was a big hand or pure bluff. i folded.

[MTBlue]

Please elucidate me on why people are thinking that villain called the flop bet with just ace high?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Because people do that sometimes. It would not be at all impossible for villain to have, say, AQ here. Particularly if he had a backdoor flush draw to go with his backdoor straight draw, overcard, potentially good queen outs, potentially best hand, and potentialy to win the pot by bluffing later in the hand.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With the turned flush draw, I bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I definitely check with the turned flush draw. Why let him c/r you off it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet the turn here. What would Hero do here if he had AK? He would raise preflop, bet the flop and bet the turn. Villian pretty much has to fold if he can't beat a pair of kings, as that is what you are clearly representing to him. He may look you up once with a middle pp, but would probably give it up after a turn bet. This is a perfect opportunity to fire the second bullet after a continuation bet. I would bet out here any spade, king, or ace.

If you make a lot of continuation bets (which I do), you have to find spots like these to fire the second bullet. It's effective if used sparingly, and if you pick the right spots. I had a similar hand today where I openraised in the CO with A9. SB called me. I play with him often and he told me after the hand that he had TT. Flop came K34r. He checked and I made a continuation bet, which he called. When another K came on the turn, he checked, I bet again 2/3 pot and he folded his tens. That king was a perfect card to fire the sencond bullet with.

Here in Hero's hand, villian can really only c/r us if he has 3x or 44 or KK. If he does c/r us, well we have to fold. And we miss that 20% opportunity we had to catch a flush on the river, which is beat by two of the three hands that villian would checkraise us with anyway, and we get off cheaply. He's laying down middle pocket pairs here most of the time, and that's a hand we want to get him off of. If he calls with a bare king, we still have a chance to make a nice chunk of change if we hit our flush on the river, or our ace might be good there also.

[spahk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With the turned flush draw, I bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I definitely check with the turned flush draw. Why let him c/r you off it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet the turn here. What would Hero do here if he had AK? He would raise preflop, bet the flop and bet the turn. Villian pretty much has to fold if he can't beat a pair of kings, as that is what you are clearly representing to him. He may look you up once with a middle pp, but would probably give it up after a turn bet. This is a perfect opportunity to fire the second bullet after a continuation bet. I would bet out here any spade, king, or ace.

If you make a lot of continuation bets (which I do), you have to find spots like these to fire the second bullet. It's effective if used sparingly, and if you pick the right spots. I had a similar hand today where I openraised in the CO with A9. SB called me. I play with him often and he told me after the hand that he had TT. Flop came K34r. He checked and I made a continuation bet, which he called. When another K came on the turn, he checked, I bet again 2/3 pot and he folded his tens. That king was a perfect card to fire the sencond bullet with.

Here in Hero's hand, villian can really only c/r us if he has 3x or 44 or KK. If he does c/r us, well we have to fold. And we miss that 20% opportunity we had to catch a flush on the river, which is beat by two of the three hands that villian would checkraise us with anyway, and we get off cheaply. He's laying down middle pocket pairs here most of the time, and that's a hand we want to get him off of. If he calls with a bare king, we still have a chance to make a nice chunk of change if we hit our flush on the river, or our ace might be good there also.

[/ QUOTE ]

i actually check AK on the turn quite often here, but your point is well taken. do others also believe that typical sb villains need trips or better to put in a check-raise on the turn? if that is true, firing again seems much more attractive.

wrt this specific hand, i have a hard time believing that villain is making that river bet if he did have a middle pair, so i'm not sure checking there cost me anything.

in general, i am of course making my share of continuation bets when i miss the flop. firing second barrels can get pretty expensive, though. i don't like to make them unless i have a pretty good reason for it.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With the turned flush draw, I bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I definitely check with the turned flush draw. Why let him c/r you off it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry. Got postitions mixed up.