Monster draw on flop (PP $100 6-max)

[snappo]

Button is 27/10 over 70 hands.

Important Stacks:

Me (SB): $126
Button: $148
BB: $22

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG, CO limps, Button limps, I call, BB checks

Pot: $5
Flop: 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="red">I bet $4</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, 1 fold, <font color="red">Button raises to $15</font>, I ?

[NYCNative]

...Call and lead with a pot-sized bet on the turn whether you hit or miss your draw. Betting it like this he either has a small set or a made straight and he's protecting it or he's just trying to steal it thinking you didn't get any part of it.

[snappo]

[ QUOTE ]
...Call and lead with a pot-sized bet on the turn whether you hit or miss your draw. Betting it like this he either has a small set or a made straight and he's protecting it or he's just trying to steal it thinking you didn't get any part of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is his hand range really that narrow? What about a higher flush draw or two pair?

Would he really be on a steal facing 2 overcallers?

[snappo]

Also if he does have a set or made straight what will betting out on a blank turn accomplish?

[NYCNative]

Didn't see the other person in the pot. Probably not stealing.

Yes he *could* be on a better draw but with two people in the pot is he really making such a big raise on the strength of a draw? If just one of the people in the hand have a made hand, they won't get away from it and might even push back. So this is why I think he has the made hand and he's protecting it. Making a big semi-bluf makes more sense HU.

[Voltron87]

go all in on the flop

[snappo]

Assuming the only hands that call me are 2 pair or better:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.3030 % 44.84% 01.46% { Jd8d }
Hand 2: 53.6970 % 52.24% 01.46% { 77-55, 98s, 75s, 65s, 43s, 98o, 75o, 65o, 43o }



I am a fairly small underdog and am even a favorite vs. an overpair. How can I figure out what my fold equity would have to be to make this +ev? I'd think it wouldn't have to be very much at all.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Personally, I call and hope to keep the other two guys in (or at least one of them). Fold equity here is pretty much non-existent so there is no point in pushing, IMO. He'll pay you off plenty once you hit.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I call and hope to keep the other two guys in (or at least one of them). Fold equity here is pretty much non-existent so there is no point in pushing, IMO. He'll pay you off plenty once you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. what are you talking about, fe is non existant?

2. i dont think we're getting paid off big on our 4 card straight. we'll get some more $$ out of the hand if we hit our flush, but not much.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
1. what are you talking about, fe is non existant?


[/ QUOTE ]
I struggle to recall the last time someone raised a multi-way pot and then folded in the same betting round.
[ QUOTE ]

2. i dont think we're getting paid off big on our 4 card straight. we'll get some more $$ out of the hand if we hit our flush, but not much.

[/ QUOTE ]
This guy most likely has a set. He'll pay off plenty if we hit our 4 card straight. Probably two more half pot bets.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. what are you talking about, fe is non existant?


[/ QUOTE ]
I struggle to recall the last time someone raised a multi-way pot and then folded in the same betting round.
[ QUOTE ]

2. i dont think we're getting paid off big on our 4 card straight. we'll get some more $$ out of the hand if we hit our flush, but not much.

[/ QUOTE ]
This guy most likely has a set. He'll pay off plenty if we hit our 4 card straight. Probably two more half pot bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

i really disagree with both those points.

[TheWorstPlayer]

OK.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd think it wouldn't have to be very much at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right, but i think you nuked the best line you had for this hand by leading the flop.

fim

[snappo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd think it wouldn't have to be very much at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right, but i think you nuked the best line you had for this hand by leading the flop.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

c/r all-in? that would be one massive overbet.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd think it wouldn't have to be very much at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right, but i think you nuked the best line you had for this hand by leading the flop.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

c/r all-in? that would be one massive overbet.

[/ QUOTE ]

nope.

fim

[snappo]

Well then I assume you mean check/call? Let me know before I give my thoughts on that in case that's not what you meant.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
Well then I assume you mean check/call? Let me know before I give my thoughts on that in case that's not what you meant.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, check/call

fim

[snappo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well then I assume you mean check/call? Let me know before I give my thoughts on that in case that's not what you meant.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, check/call

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm gonna dwell on that for a little while.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well then I assume you mean check/call? Let me know before I give my thoughts on that in case that's not what you meant.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, check/call

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm gonna dwell on that for a little while.

[/ QUOTE ]


when i'm considering the way to play a draw, i look at:

1. the quality of my draws
2. the preflop action
3. the number of plyers in the pot
4. my position
5. my stack size WRT the pot
6. my opponents likely holdings
7. the transparency of my draws


the way I see it, 1-6 make this one to play in low gear.

fim

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think 3, 4 and 5 are the deciding factors for me here in agreeing with check/call.

[snappo]

Thanks a lot for all the replies and insights they were very helpful. Anyway I did shove figuring I had good equity if 2 people called (although that probably isn't correct but at the time...) and combined with whatever little fold equity I did have it probably wasn't too -EV. But I like the check/call line a lot now.

If the turn is headsup and a blank falls though I'm not sure how to play it. If I check and he bets can I really call now? My hand would be so transparent and my implied odds would be so low I couldn't see it being +EV.

If I hit my flush on the turn how much can I make. It will be obvious and I feel I would only get action from a higher flush or at best a set/2 pair will call 1 more bet hoping to fill up, maybe a second bet on the river maybe not.

If I hit my straight there will be 4 on the board, only 1 on my hand so again it will be obvious won't it? I think I see the advantages of check/call on the flop but I don't understand the turn.

Results:

Hero calls 126.35 (All-In), BB calls 21.85 (All-In), UTG folds, Button calls.

Turn: A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot:

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has 8d Jd (flush, ace high).
BB has 8h 3d (one pair, aces).
Button has 7c 6c (two pair, aces and sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins . </font>

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Also if he does have a set or made straight what will betting out on a blank turn accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

[fuzzbox]

The pot is a little small to shovel all your chips in. Why not call and see a turn. You can still call a pot bet on the turn to try and hit your hand on the river.

Course - you could just shovel all your money in and hope he folds, but I dont think thats the best play given the pot size and stack sizes on show here.

[FiReSiStAnT]

was is UTG....sorry

[snappo]

[ QUOTE ]
was is UTG....sorry

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? /images/graemlins/confused.gif