The expectancy of deep stack play? (Theoretical)

[TStoneMBD]

Pretense:

Question (1a)

A novice poker player is playing heads up no limit against a skilled player.

Let's define the novice as an intelligent person, who is familiar with psychology and other strategic games, but has only played no-limit holdem 7 times.

Let's define the skilled player as a limit pro, who is skilled at short-handed play, but isn't quite as good at no-limit.

The blinds are 1/2 and each player starts with $1000 in chips.

What can we predict the probability is of the skilled player winning this match over the long run?

(ie: 85/100, 72%, etc.)
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For more detailed discussion, let's slightly alter the pretense.

Question (1b)

A novice plays against this skilled player 10,000 times in consecutive matches. Neither player knows much about each other's abilities, but will retain the knowledge of their play after each session as it tends to happen in real life.

What can we predict the probability is of the skilled player winning this match over the long run?



Thanks in advance!
-mbd

[KaneKungFu123]

who cares?

[TStoneMBD]

maybe the question is unanswerable, but i think its important for understanding how to maximize game selection. the main reason why i want to know is that a friend and i had an arguement over this, but i am also curious myself.

[Yeti]

1a) Depends on what strategy the novice chooses. ~ 85/100

1b) Depends how smart the novice is and how fast he learns. Still, I'd imagine the novice has around a 1/10000 chance of winning this.

- figures courtesy of my anus.

[fimbulwinter]

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who cares?

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[Offsprung]

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who cares?

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Obviously the original poster. No sense being a jackass about it. Just leave the thread alone if you don't care.

I'd say around 70-75% of the time the skilled player wins.

[wacki]

TStoneMBD, I know you are a smart person. I also know that you are a good small stakes player. However, this is kind of an odd question. It is not a question indicative of a skilled player such as yourself.

To answer you question though, unless the novice is bobby fisher, or has read a crapload of books/threads on NL, the pro comes out ahead. (i.e. does he even know about pot odds? does he know the % of times a trips will fill? etc...) I refuse to to put a percentage on it because I simply don't think this is answerable in any sort of detail.

Is this answerable at all or do we base our answers on guesses?

[Dr. StrangeloveX]

With 500bb the novice will probably be better off moving in every hand, rather than playing postflop. So, random hand v [reasonable calling handset] taking into consideration the average number of blinds won before expert picks up a calling hand. Expert probably wins around 75-80% of the time here.

[amoeba]

this is all dependent on what you mean by good.

[Xelent]

I don't want to hijack your post or anything, but I was thinking of something similar.

Let's say blinds 1K/2K with 500K each. Freezout NLHE Daniel Negreanu v.s. me. A semi-skilled NL player that can beat stakes up through 2/5 and 5/10 without too much problem, but still has a lot to learn about the game and makes plenty of stupid errors. What percentage of the time should I win this match? The general style I would start with is to get aggressive in marginal or gambling (50/50) situations.

[Xelent]

What hand do you consider a calling hand vs preflop move ins every time in 500BB NL game?

[BobboFitos]

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What hand do you consider a calling hand vs preflop move ins every time in 500BB NL game?

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run a simulation using pokerstove with aa v random, kk v random, etc. if you wait until you're only say 80-20 you'll be folding alot.

alot of hands offer a slight to marginally good advantage, but i think that would be a spot (in the freezeout setting) vs cash game setting where you would "wait for a better spot."

also, if novice has even somewhat of a minor move in strategy, (like folding bottom 15% hands HU) his % of winning goes way up.