Win 7 SNGs in a row and make $1MM, haha

[nate_king1]

www.noblepoker.com (http://www.noblepoker.com)

"$1,000,000 Sit ‘n’ Go Challenge

Noble Poker is thrilled to announce its exciting new promotion - The Million Dollar Sit & Go Challenge..

The search is on to find the world’s best Sit & Go player!

The first player who wins 7 consecutive $10 Sit & Go tournaments will walk away with a cool million!

As with our other Jackpot Sit & Go tournaments, there are additional prizes to be won:

* Win 6 tournaments in a row and you’ll get $75,000!
* Win 5 consecutive tournaments and we’ll pay you $25,000
* Finish in one of the top 2 positions of this tournament 5 consecutive times and you’ll take an easy $300.

Noble Poker’s Jackpot Sit ‘n’ Go Concept:

Last month Noble Poker introduced its unique and exciting “Jackpot Sit & Go” concept, in which players can win huge jackpot prizes when playing Sit & Go tournaments. click here for more details about our existing Jackpot Sit & Go tournaments.

Our current Jackpot Sit ‘n’ Go tournaments (named “Maui” and “Rio”) offer initial Jackpot Prizes of $15,000 and $25,000. Both are progressive prizes and their sum increases as more players enter the tournaments.

On July 3rd Fresh3030, Doug Evenhus from Montana won an incredible jackpot prize of $18,500 after winning five consecutive $5 Sit ‘n’ Go tournaments in our Maui Promotion. In addition, Noble Poker will be taking Doug on a courtesy trip to Las Vegas to meet the Noble Poker team at the WSOP.

As a result of the extreme popularity of our Jackpot Sit ‘n’Go Tournaments, we’ve decided to expand this concept. Until today, we have been offering Jackpot prizes of $15,000 and $25,000. Now, we are taking this concept to the next level and are offering a Million Dollars!

Noble Poker’s Million Dollar S&G Challenge will commence on August 1st. In the mean time you can practice for the “main event” by playing at one of our existing Jackpot S&G Tournaments (“Maui” and “Rio”), each offering exciting jackpot prizes. .
See you at the tables!"

I really don't believe this? Just saw an ad today. Are they kidding? I just checked the odds of winning 7 in a row.

00.000001% how i figured .1x.1^7 correct?

[dmmikkel]

Its something they do to attract colluders

[Slim Pickens]

I can't count zeros. You want (1e-1)^7=1e-7 or one in ten million. There was an earlier thread on this too.

[citanul]

they review the hhs. so there's no possibility of colluding really.

as for the original post, if this were OOT, there'd be a big pile of poop or something.

citanul

[KingMedicine]

im thinking if you are an SNG pro (that is you play a lot of SNGs, not necessarily that youre amazingly good) and you play a ton a day, you might be able to score the 300$ prize for top 2 in 5 consecutive tourneys. looking over my last 1000 SNGs, ive done this 3 times. not a ton of money, but an extra 900$ for 1000 SNGs helps the ROI a smidge.

Someone figure out the math of getting in the top 2 in 5 straight 10s for 300$.

[Slim Pickens]

It's about one in one thousand. It's also a total waste of time and money in all cases.

[microbet]

Sounds like the whole thing is about the same as rakeback. Maybe better.

Since getting sng tracker I've played 500 games at $50 on Party with 20% ROI and I've won 5 in a row. I had a 4 in a row as well. The best streak I had was the 4 in a row, then a 2nd, then 1st, 7th,1st.

so 6 of 8.

almost

[Slim Pickens]

...except you can only get it by playing the 11's. It's a nice bonus for those who play the 11's. Maybe they'll offer this at other levels too.

[dmmikkel]

[ QUOTE ]
they review the hhs. so there's no possibility of colluding really.

as for the original post, if this were OOT, there'd be a big pile of poop or something.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

It is possible. Just have like a ton of accounts to work with (from completely different people) and dump chips over the entire SNG and make it look like they lost it fair and square

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
they review the hhs. so there's no possibility of colluding really.

as for the original post, if this were OOT, there'd be a big pile of poop or something.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

It is possible. Just have like a ton of accounts to work with (from completely different people) and dump chips over the entire SNG and make it look like they lost it fair and square

[/ QUOTE ]

it's amazing that you think that you have thought this through more than someone who is willing to give away $1m for the achievement.

citanul

[adanthar]

Here's how I would do it, if I were to try it:

a)Win 4 or 5 SNG's in a row (pretty doable)
b)Immediately stop playing and recruit about 6 people I know to sign up and play 100-200 tournaments for background coloration
c)Go back in for the sixth and seventh SNG's with 3 additional bogeys in the game controlled by me via conference call
d)Swear bitterly when their 97s CO steal push sucks out on my aces all in PF and then not sleep for a week /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

(btw, speaking of aces PF, lots and lots of opportunities to fold preflop on your 7'th SNG and it wouldn't even be wrong. lol.)

[skierdude1000]

I bet its rigged to hell so that by #5, you are getting all 72o and 53s

[curtains]

Forgive me Im confused. Why wouldnt it be wrong to fold AA preflop when you need to get first place?

[adanthar]

You know that '3 people push PF, you have AA, what do you do' retarded post that we all hate?

It starts being more interesting when losing costs you a million dollars and you have friends in the tourney that can do things like undetectably dump off chips with second pair.

[ChoicestHops]

I definitely don't see how this is not +EV.

[Slim Pickens]

Uh... if you can play a higher level for the same menial ROI...

[trdi]

There is no way those SNGs are going to be fair. Instead of making me play there, they've done the opposite. I could easily come to a table where 3 players are "working" for one player and 3 players for another one. Me...I don't have a teeeam! /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[A_Junglen]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way those SNGs are going to be fair. Instead of making me play there, they've done the opposite. I could easily come to a table where 3 players are "working" for one player and 3 players for another one. Me...I don't have a teeeam! /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, sit n go turf war

[Iamafish]

That site sucks anyway.

[Big Limpin']

Sorry for bump, but its a subject i want to talk a little about. Its been brought to my attention that noble poker has updated their software to allow movable windows. Before, you could run multiple tables, but they would all be stacked upon each other in the same 800x600 window. Major pain in ass (and possible disaterous concequences) from tables popping to the forefront right when you are about to pull slider all the way to right and click push.

So yeah, if they now have distinct windows, that issue is gone. So now, to win 7 in a row. I've personally never won 7 in a row on any site (dont think so anyways, id prolly remember that), but ive for sure won like 3 or 4 in a row several times. So lets say you took a run at this. And i am talking several weeks/months here.

Lets say you were quad tabling (continuously). Whenever you took a 1st, you would stop re-opening new tables. THerefore, every time you won, you would be playing 3 tables. If you should be so lucky as to win the next one that completes, you would then be just 2 tabling, and then perhaps 1 tabling if the gods smiled.

If we take it as intuitive that your P(1st) increases as # of simultaneous tables decreases, then your P(grandslam) ought to increase. Now dont get me wrong, its still a super longshot. But getting a grand slam in this manner must be somewhat more likely that in just continuous quadding, or playing in sets.

So lets say that playing in this manner for a few weeks or months will produce a handful of grand slams. Remember, these are 10+1s we are talking about. Im sure the "elite" of this forum could place 1st 20% of the time. Especially at noble, which is on par with pacific in my (limited) experience. There would for sure be resultant grans slams. ANd more than a few im sure.

OK, so you have won 4 in a row. You take a break, get some fresh air, strech legs, maybe go for a jog, whatever gets your brain thinking correctly. Then you come back and SINGLE TABLE, TEN DOLLAR TOURNAMENTS, AT A FISHY SITE. I am convinced that the best 2+2ers could get 1st >25% of the time in this scenario. I think even i could. ANd im like a B- 2+2er. I dont even think >0% would be too unreasonable for a Giga-esque player if he is one tabling with weak competition. Having already pulled your G.S., you only need win 3 in a row. give a hypothetical sharks a 1/3 chance of winning, thats only 1:27....even dude with 1/4 chance of winning...only 1:64. hell, even the blind monkey who pays rake is only 1:1000 against.

Now im not saying that its likely you would win $1,000,000. Say you got 3 grand slams in a month (optimistic, but hey, noble 10+1s remember), and were 1:50 to get 3 more wins single tabling. thats only 1:17 against. and remember, you are obviously CRUSHING the game while trying, granted thats insignificant $ for you 215 8-tablers.

BL' who has pulled these numbers/odds out of his ass, but feels they are at least ballpark reasonable.

Anyone want to discuss?

( and boo moderator for locking the most recent noble 1MM thread)

[KramerTM]

Big Limpin...

Better yet. What if we got the top 10 best SnGers from 2+2 in the same room and idid it your way. Someone run the numbers on this. I'd say it would be about 1/50,000 at worst.

Comments?

[bjb23]

hey bl, what are the starting stacks/blind structure for these sngs?? obviously this would have a huge impact on P(win).

bj

[valenzuela]

Aleomagus got 7 4ths once, so it can be done!! my record is 5 wins on a row( BUT two were 6 handed only, it was on $1 sngs and it was on UB with longer structure.)

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
Big Limpin...

Better yet. What if we got the top 10 best SnGers from 2+2 in the same room and idid it your way. Someone run the numbers on this. I'd say it would be about 1/50,000 at worst.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont get it /images/graemlins/confused.gifare you trying to be funny here?

[Big Limpin']

working only on memory of sng structure there, i believe they are timed levels, and 1k stacks. read this to mean that there is an extended bubble, even more extended ITM, and longer still HU, thus my optimistic projections on p(1) for a very good player.

[viennagreen]

so you're saying, basically, play sets of four until you grand slam, then single table?

i just looked through my old finish distributions for the 50s where i had a 20% ROI (i import HHs into PT, but also keep an Excel spreadsheet where i enter in finishes as they occur)----

over a period of 5000 SNGs of mostly 4-tabling, the most 1st place finishes i had in a row was 4 (on 4 different occasions).... the most ITM in a row i had was 8.

with a 20% 1st places--- chance of 4 in a row are 1:625

with a 25% chance at 1st place single tabling, chances of getting 3 more in a row are 1:40000.... is that right?

1:40000 chance is still pretty slim...

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
Big Limpin...

Better yet. What if we got the top 10 best SnGers from 2+2 in the same room and idid it your way. Someone run the numbers on this. I'd say it would be about 1/50,000 at worst.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is kind of intrigueing, I might be interested in doing this while playing 215s if other people would also do it and we split the million should anyone hit 7 in a row... I have a feeling that the EV would still be much lower then using that time to just play my regular game though.

[Big Limpin']

dude, point taken, but those are 55s, in a structure that rewards small edges played over and over and over. (partly becasue the SnGs dont last so long). What do you think you could acchieve at a fish(ier?!) site, playing in a TIMED LEVEL game (read more skill divergence ITM), and playing TEN PLUS ONES?

For a PP 20%er at 55s, you should be embarassed if you cant get a 30-40% ROI in these games.

Adjust your "odds" to reflect that,say, 20/15/15 dist'n when quadding, and 25/20/15 for the final 3 when single tabling.

This isnt meant to be rhetorical, i honestly dont know the results of calcs for these #s, but the odds of scoring 1MM are exponentially increased with ROI jumps.

IF you do in fact run the numbers, im very interested to hear how this affects the odds.

BL' - who feels he may have been misudterstood as to believing this is a get rich quick sceme....naw man, i just think its a pretty cool overlay for anyone who is in the 10+1 range bankrool wise, and wants to gambool at retiring in their mid-twenties /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
dude, point taken, but those are 55s, in a structure that rewards small edges played over and over and over. (partly becasue the SnGs dont last so long). What do you think you could acchieve at a fish(ier?!) site, playing in a TIMED LEVEL game (read more skill divergence ITM), and playing TEN PLUS ONES?

For a PP 20%er at 55s, you should be embarassed if you cant get a 30-40% ROI in these games.

Adjust your "odds" to reflect that,say, 20/15/15 dist'n when quadding, and 25/20/15 for the final 3 when single tabling.

This isnt meant to be rhetorical, i honestly dont know the results of calcs for these #s, but the odds of scoring 1MM are exponentially increased with ROI jumps.

IF you do in fact run the numbers, im very interested to hear how this affects the odds.

BL' - who feels he may have been misudterstood as to believing this is a get rich quick sceme....naw man, i just think its a pretty cool overlay for anyone who is in the 10+1 range bankrool wise, and wants to gambool at retiring in their teens /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ] that would be cool!!!

[viennagreen]

i did run the numbers for a 20% first place distribution when quadding and 25% for single tabling...

the results are 1:40000, if i'm not mistaken

(.20*.20*.20*.20)(.25*.25*.25)

and, as a guess, i would say a 20/15/15 distribution is around 60% ROI... at the very least, it's 50%

i think-- i might be having a brain fart or something... but it seems to me that your luckbox would have to be running at max power.

also--- how feasible is it to even play 4 tables at a time over at Noble? do tables fill very quickly?

oh-- and i'm not misunderstanding and thinking that you're onto a get-rick-quick kick.... i'm curious about the "potential" also.... just--- hard to justify making $16/hr (around $20 hr if you count the probability of hitting the five consecutive 1st or 2nd place $250 prize in there) on a very slim chance.

however--- if i was a 10s or 20s player on the Party skins, i would move over to Noble for this in a heartbeat.

[viennagreen]

using your 20/15/15 distribution for quadding and 25/20/15 distribution for single tabling, you have these chances for the extra incentives:

7 wins in a row, $100K = 1:40000
6 wins in a row, $75K = (.20*.20*.20*.20)(.25*.25)=
.0001= 1:10000
5 wins in a row, $25K = (.20*.20*.20*.20)(.25)=
.0004= 1:2500
5 1st or 2nds, $250 = (.35*.35*.35*.35)(.45)=
.00675= 1:148

i just think that even with a super fishy game, these distributions are optimistic.

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Big Limpin...

Better yet. What if we got the top 10 best SnGers from 2+2 in the same room and idid it your way. Someone run the numbers on this. I'd say it would be about 1/50,000 at worst.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont get it /images/graemlins/confused.gifare you trying to be funny here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not trying to be funny. Trying to be rich.

Seriously though, I think this would be a fascinating experiment. Make a damn good film/book much like Bringing Down the House.

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Big Limpin...

Better yet. What if we got the top 10 best SnGers from 2+2 in the same room and idid it your way. Someone run the numbers on this. I'd say it would be about 1/50,000 at worst.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont get it /images/graemlins/confused.gifare you trying to be funny here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not trying to be funny. Trying to be rich.

Seriously though, I think this would be a fascinating experiment. Make a damn good film/book much like Bringing Down the House.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah i DO get what you mean now....you meant to get 10 good players in the same physical room, all hovering over one comp, and making decisions by committe.
WHen i first read you post, i read it to mean have 10 pro SnGers all playing against each other at the same online table. Which would obviously be the hardest game ever at 10+1s /images/graemlins/smile.gif lol Thats why i thought you were making some kind of ironic joke that i didnt get

Yeah war-room decision making WOULD probably be the most edge possible. We would essentially play perfect poker, as we all have leaks, but in different areas, so any persons donk reccomendation would be voted down 9-1 or 8-2.

But man, having to split $1MM ten ways, what a buzz kill /images/graemlins/tongue.gif....pfffff, $100k, thats only like a few step highers, small potatoes man.

BL' - Forming a Noble Poker "Ocean's Ten"

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
using your 20/15/15 distribution for quadding and 25/20/15 distribution for single tabling, you have these chances for the extra incentives:

7 wins in a row, $100K = 1:40000
6 wins in a row, $75K = (.20*.20*.20*.20)(.25*.25)=
.0001= 1:10000
5 wins in a row, $25K = (.20*.20*.20*.20)(.25)=
.0004= 1:2500
5 1st or 2nds, $250 = (.35*.35*.35*.35)(.45)=
.00675= 1:148

i just think that even with a super fishy game, these distributions are optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose you are correct thats its still very unlikely. But also, these stats are, say, 40K:1 for winning 7 consecutive games starting from any arbitrary "game #1".

My brain could be playing tricks on me here, but wouldnt that # be divisible by the number of games you play? So if you played 1,000 of them, you ought to have (40,000)/(1,000) odds against. THats only 40:1? It seems too low, so please correct me.

Thinking another way, say you played 1,000 games, and are 20% first palce...you would expect to place 1st about 200 times. So from each of these 200 1st, you would be (0.2*0.2*0.2)*(0.25*0.25*0.25) = 0.00125 = 1:8000 to continue with 6 more firsts. (as opposed to 1:10k, as 3 of 6 are single tabling as opposed to 2 of 6 in your starting calc.)

So if i take 1:8000 odds, but do it 200 times....man, thats still only 1:40? Maybe those numbers *are* right.

If it took you a month to do 1000 games, thats $1,000,000/40 = $25k overlay per month.


Of course, these numbers all hinge on my assumption of P(1st)=0.20 when quadding, and P(1st) = 0.25 when single tabling, which may be overly optimistic.

But to mention it again, these ARE 10+1 games, at a very fishy site, and have timed blinds, so you get more hands ITM, and ought to have a resultant high P(1st) if you are indeed much better than average.

Im not even sure these numbers would be realistic if *I* were to play, but anyone think they would be reasonable for the absolute creme de la creme of the SnG world?

BL' - who kinda just started talking about this cause he thought it would make good discussion, but now may have talked himself into giving this a college try! /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[Big Limpin']

Regarding overomtimistic P(1st) estimates, lets see how downgraded results would affect the numbers.

How would 15$ ist when quadding, and 20% when single tabling be? As opposed to 20 and 25.


(0.15^4)*(0.20^3) = ~250,000:1.

thats quite a jump from 40,000:1 !

Doing 1000 games, that drops chance of a million from 40:1 to 250:1. bah /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Clearly theres is an inverse exponential relationship here. So i guess the overlay hinges vcery critically on what P(1st) you can get.

*sidenote: you would tailor your game to maximize P(1st) over maxROI.


Well, i think we have pretty much done the %'s do death now, can we steer this dicussion to what a obtainable max P(1st) whould be?

I am quite sure that you gould get higher P(1st) at noble 10+1 in relation to party 10+1 (timed blinds, 1k stacks)

SO, what could a 215 pro get at party? Anyone want to take a guess? Curtains? Dali? Rap? Gig? If you played jsut for first, with no regard for getting ITM 2nd/3rd, what do you think you could achieve quadding 10+1s at Party? 20%? And then what about 1-tabling them? 25%?

BL'

[Big Limpin']

Hell i cant stop posting here, im getting excited now! And im not even drinking yet.

OK, check this. lets say that there was no million for 7 deal. *JUST* the $75,000 for 6 in a row.

(0.2^4)*(0.25^2) = 10,000:1 (optimistic stats)
or
(0.15^4)*(0.2^2) = 50,000:1 (i feel this is even pessimistic?)

Lets split the difference and call it 20,000:1

Again, if you played 1000 a month, thats 20:1 against to win 75K. Overlay of about $3750 a month.

Now add in the cool million, say you will win your 7th game 25% of the time after scoring that 75k (you would for sure take 2 days off, study your game, sleep well, amybe get a few pros on MSN to give advice on hands...)

Call it 80:1 you would win a $925,000 more in any given month. Thats another $11,500 overlay a month.

So combine the two, and you are talking about a $15k a month overlay.

*standard disclaimer...yes guys, i *know* that this is not a fiscally responisble way to look at it if you pay for bills with poker as your job. Win next to nothing most every month (jsut whatever ROI you can pull for the 10+1s), and then maybe 2 years down the road the gods smile at you.

But still, it think its pretty cool overlay.

BL' Who think s he will play 100 of these next week to try to get an idea of what kind of P(1st) he can get...will report back.

[KramerTM]

I suppose it would have to be about the thrill of vistory in this case instead of the money. Not to mention the book deal will bring in about $1 million per person.

[gildwulf]

I'm in for the 10 if you'll have me...I can be Seth Green! My expertise is fish demolition and luckboxing the 50s:) Also, you could just do it over Skype or MSN to prevent collusion detection....

[Seth Money]

You have to remember that you have to be the 1st to do this as well. Any subsequent person that gets it done does not win

[Jay36489]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Big Limpin...

Better yet. What if we got the top 10 best SnGers from 2+2 in the same room and idid it your way. Someone run the numbers on this. I'd say it would be about 1/50,000 at worst.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont get it /images/graemlins/confused.gifare you trying to be funny here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not trying to be funny. Trying to be rich.

Seriously though, I think this would be a fascinating experiment. Make a damn good film/book much like Bringing Down the House.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah i DO get what you mean now....you meant to get 10 good players in the same physical room, all hovering over one comp, and making decisions by committe.

[/ QUOTE ]

ehhh... 1 person to a hand please...

[cball86]

im in for the 10, about 1500 30's under my belt. already have a noble account ready to go that ive been playing on for 2 months. is anyone serious about this? i think its +ev to at least give it a shot.

[Newt_Buggs]

I'm intrigued, but just wanted to throw out a couple of things:

1. Your idea of having 10 pros in a room is interesting and I think would be fun, but 10 is far too many. Realistically you would only want 3-4.

2. Many of the top SNG pros are already making 15K a month or more playing low variance SNGs. This would probably be a high variance, -EV proposition but based on your numbers it might not be very -EV.