Angels/Yankees

[football4me6]

Angels -109
Fade the yanks

[scalf]

ocer, babeee; over

gl

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[wadea]

I agree for this game, since Brown is likely to be terrible. However, although I used to favor it, I'm not sure it's going to continue to be +EV to fade the Yanks on principle. They (mostly meaning Giambi) seem to have turned things around on offense. Their defense just needs to keep them in games and they might be able to keep winning.

-w.a.

[ThaHero]

I'm going to this game tonight. Yay me!!

Wednesday(?) I bet on Santana, and he won. I'm betting on him again tonight. This guy is like 4-1 during night games, or something like that, with a 2.59 ERA. These are all estimates, but it's in the ballpark. Only thing that scares me is that he doesn't have back to back wins yet this season.

Not sure what the over is, but since Brown is pitching I might just bet the over as well. We did pretty well against him last time he pitched against us.

[TheTimeIsUp]

I went to the game yesterday. It is crazy how many Yankee fans are there.

Angels will pick up the clean sweep /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
Wednesday(?) I bet on Santana, and he won. I'm betting on him again tonight. This guy is like 4-1 during night games, or something like that, with a 2.59 ERA. These are all estimates, but it's in the ballpark. Only thing that scares me is that he doesn't have back to back wins yet this season.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your sample size for night vs day is way too small. Especially since there is no real evidence that pitchers (or any players for that matter) play better at night than at day or vice versa.

And the fact that he doesn't have back to back wins means nothing. Why doesn't he have back to back wins? Did he not get any run support in the second games? Maybe he isn't that good of a pitcher? This could be due to many different reasons.

craig

[ThaHero]

I never said it was a lock. He would have had back to back wins one time when he only gave up a run but got no support. I know the sample size is small but I don't really have 100,000 hands to draw from here with a young pitcher. All I have is this year.

If you think the bet is garbage, and that you'll be betting on the Yankees, tell me why. Also give me the plethora of stats that tell you why to bet on them, or why the over or under is good as well.

Santana isn't the only reason I'm betting on the Angels.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
I never said it was a lock. He would have had back to back wins one time when he only gave up a run but got no support. I know the sample size is small but I don't really have 100,000 hands to draw from here with a young pitcher. All I have is this year.

If you think the bet is garbage, and that you'll be betting on the Yankees, tell me why. Also give me the plethora of stats that tell you why to bet on them, or why the over or under is good as well.

Santana isn't the only reason I'm betting on the Angels.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said the bet was garbage. My point was that saying he is 4-1 at night doesn't really mean that much. Either does him being 0-3 during the day. I was also trying to point out that this type of situational concept might not mean anything at all.

I would also say that if you do like LAA that the UN is the more profitable play, as there is a stronger correlation with a home team/under than home team/over. The main reason being that if the home team is winning there won't be a bottom 9th.

craig

[ThaHero]

thanks for the tip

[football4me6]

This post was for fridays game lackey vs. leiter. However, i must say fade the yankees once again and take santana at even money (sportsbook.com).

[homedog]

It's just too obvious to fade Kevin Brown. Homedog loves the Yankees.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wednesday(?) I bet on Santana, and he won. I'm betting on him again tonight. This guy is like 4-1 during night games, or something like that, with a 2.59 ERA. These are all estimates, but it's in the ballpark. Only thing that scares me is that he doesn't have back to back wins yet this season.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your sample size for night vs day is way too small. Especially since there is no real evidence that pitchers (or any players for that matter) play better at night than at day or vice versa.

And the fact that he doesn't have back to back wins means nothing. Why doesn't he have back to back wins? Did he not get any run support in the second games? Maybe he isn't that good of a pitcher? This could be due to many different reasons.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

At least someone here knows what he's talking about....

Really annoys me seeing all these ridiculously small sample sizes for stuff that probably makes very little difference being used as a reason to bet on a team.

If you really wanted to, you could look up how well Santana has done on Saturday night games in the month of July on the road against an AL Central opponent. That doesn't mean you'd gain any useful information.

[ThaHero]

For the record, this is only my 3rd time betting on baseball in my life. Im a novice, and never claimed to be an expert.

So I have a question. Is it a rule of thumb to NOT bet on rookie pitchers? Or wait till the 3rd portion of the season to bet on baseball games?

Oh well the Angels won, and the over is good! A fight broke out at the game, like 10 rows away from me. Some guy sucker punched another guy and two females jumped on the attacker. lol. Like 10 Yankee fans were arrested lol. 2 Corona bombs, 2 bets won, life is good!

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
For the record, this is only my 3rd time betting on baseball in my life. Im a novice, and never claimed to be an expert.

So I have a question. Is it a rule of thumb to NOT bet on rookie pitchers? Or wait till the 3rd portion of the season to bet on baseball games?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I think I read in Wong's book that rookie pitchers (or specifically, pitchers making their major league debut) tend to get underbet, and therefore betting on them has been profitable in the past.

[scalf]

sunday play yanks big...angels fade today

gl

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[WackityWhiz]

I hope so

[scalf]

scalf calls another biggie..

gl

yanks beat angels to avoid sweep

gl

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