EEZ THEES A POOOOOOOOOSH??

I have woken up from the dead from almost 100 chips to here
And have been pushing a fair bit. There is a good chance that table is ready to call one of my pooooooooshes.
So do you ?
***** Hand History for Game 2404006372 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14149859 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Friday, July 22, 04:21:58 EDT 2005
Table Table 13872 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: spadedeuce ( $1530 )
Seat 7: StikBoy32 ( $1725 )
Seat 9: bmx_reed36 ( $1880 )
Seat 10: twosor2think ( $2865 )
Trny:14149859 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to spadedeuce [ Jd Kd ]
twosor2think folds.

[clutch]

If your read is correct, no. Otherwise, it's close.

[HesseJam]

Yes, it is still a push, I believe. I'd almost want to be spite called here.

Actually i am also interested in a dry technical sense.If the chances of getting called were average.

[tshort]

You have over 10BB, I don't think you have to push. Without the circumstances, I would raise to about 400 here. If someone calls (which would be an incorrect play almost always), you have position in post flop play. If they come over the top, it depends on my read on the player whether I call.

I think a push would work fine also. If they are loosening their calling range, it will only help you in this situation.

[slavic]

[ QUOTE ]
You have over 10BB, I don't think you have to push. Without the circumstances, I would raise to about 400 here. If someone calls (which would be an incorrect play almost always), you have position in post flop play. If they come over the top, it depends on my read on the player whether I call.

I think a push would work fine also. If they are loosening their calling range, it will only help you in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your giving the BB 2.5 to 1 on his call. He's right to call with many hands here and see a flop.

[Superfluous Man]

To answer the question posed in your topic, yeeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSss ssssss! Your opponents will be pretty damn reluctant to call here without a big hand, and may even fold small aces and small PPs.

[GtrHtr]

could somebody run pokerstove on this (I don't have it at work) using villain range 55+, AT+ and post the equity of this hand please. Thanks and I'm guessing 30% for hero's hand for the record.

[me1tdown]

Not sure I did this right:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

801,358,272 games 2.834 secs 282,765,798 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 63.7915 % 62.97% 00.83% { KdJd }
Hand 2: 36.2085 % 35.38% 00.83% { TT-55, ATo-A5o, KTo-K5o, QTo-Q5o, J5o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o }

[curtains]

I would push for sure. In terms of chip EV its clearly +EV, but whenever you are on the bubble with about 10x the BB and others are close to you, things are never so clear.

[proell]

Is it even a clearly +EV move?
What do you think the calling ranges are?
any pair, A7+, KJ+, possibly QJs? (slightly tigher for SB)


With that range I think this is a fold. And I may be being too conservative, if Hero has really been pusing the table around he might get calls from any A.

I think this is a fold, though admittedly a difficult one.

[slavic]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it even a clearly +EV move?
What do you think the calling ranges are?
any pair, A7+, KJ+, possibly QJs? (slightly tigher for SB)


With that range I think this is a fold. And I may be being too conservative, if Hero has really been pusing the table around he might get calls from any A.

I think this is a fold, though admittedly a difficult one.

[/ QUOTE ]

If his calling is this tight, wouldn't this be an argument for pushing any two?

[proell]

you have to remember the SB is in there as well, albeit with a tighter calling range.

but what I meant was that even with this calling range it is probably -EV to push here (or break-even). If the BB is actually looser that this then it becomes a definite -EV move.

so it seems to only be a +EV move if we can assume the BBs range is tighter than this.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure I did this right:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

801,358,272 games 2.834 secs 282,765,798 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 63.7915 % 62.97% 00.83% { KdJd }
Hand 2: 36.2085 % 35.38% 00.83% { TT-55, ATo-A5o, KTo-K5o, QTo-Q5o, J5o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o }

[/ QUOTE ]

almost but you left out some key hands like JJ, KK, QQ, AA etc. The range I posted is one I'd be comfortable insta calling our hero who admits he has been pushing a lot, so here are the numbers:

726,016,896 games 1.453 secs 499,667,512 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.6623 % 61.31% 00.35% { 55+, AJs+, ATo+ }
Hand 2: 38.3377 % 37.98% 00.35% { KJs }

so interesting. you could go either way based on read. If it was me, I'd probably pass on this one. If you think he'll call with a much wider range, perhaps.

[bmxreed36]

I'll try to help. Since I was the big blind here and apparently he has been pushing alot, my calling range is probably around 88+, AJ+.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll try to help. Since I was the big blind here and apparently he has been pushing alot, my calling range is probably around 88+, AJ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

so close and yet so far. Although I found someone tighter than me...lol.

[Matt R.]

Since you're the shortest stack on the bubble, I think KJs is too strong to lay down from the button. I'd probably call an all-in even if I raised to 2.5-3x the BB (given your image), so I think all-in is the best play.

[GtrHtr]

FWIW the math only changes slightly:

20,540,416 games 1.032 secs 504,399,627 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 65.1054 % 64.71% 00.40% { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 34.8946 % 34.50% 00.40% { KJs }