Ugly Bubble situation

[Nottom]

Is there anyway to have avoided my fate here? I hate folding as much as the next guy, but I never saw a spot where I could get my money in and didn't expect the shorty to keep folding until it was too late.

There are a good 4 or 5 decisions here that I very well have completely butchered.

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $4300 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3020 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1570 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $1110 )
Trny:14142904 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 3d 7h ]
Shorty folds.
BigStack raises [1000].
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 1450 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $4750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1270 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $1110 )
Trny:14142904 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 4d Ad ]
BigStack raises [800].
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 1250 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5200 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $810 )
Trny:14142904 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 3s 9s ]
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 450 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5350 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $660 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Td Kd ]
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack folds.
2ndStack does not show cards.
2ndStack wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5150 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3070 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $660 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 9d 6d ]
Shorty folds.
BigStack raises [1000].
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 1600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $720 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $660 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Tc Ad ]
BigStack folds.
2ndStack raises [800].
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
2ndStack does not show cards.
2ndStack wins 1400 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3470 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $520 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $260 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qh Kd ]
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5950 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3470 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $520 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $60 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 7h Qh ]
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack folds.
2ndStack does not show cards.
2ndStack wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3670 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $520 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $60 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qs Ts ]
Shorty folds.
BigStack folds.
2ndStack folds.
HERO does not show cards.
HERO wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3470 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $720 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $60 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Kd 7d ]
BigStack folds.
2ndStack raises [800].
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
HERO is all-In [520]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, Ad, 2d ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7h ]
2ndStack shows [ Th, Tc ] a pair of tens.
HERO shows [ Kd, 7d ] a pair of sevens.
Shorty shows [ 7s, 6d ] two pairs, sevens and sixes.
2ndStack wins 80 chips from side pot #2 with a pair of tens.
2ndStack wins 1320 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of tens.
Shorty wins 180 chips from the main pot with two pairs, sevens and sixes.
HERO finished in fourth place.
HERO has left the table.
The Small Blind left the table. The Dealer button remains in place.

[HesseJam]

You tried to chicken your way into 3rd. You had two good hands KTs (No.4, that was maybe too early), calling 2nd stack with AT and oushing KQ. You could've done something at that time. However, I sometimes play the same like you and settle for 3rd if I sense that the big guys are bullying and, more important, that the smallest stack is very weak (which he was here).
If that was your strategy, why did you deviate at the worst time from it? If you are capable to play the last hand why didn't you raise the better hands with more FE before? You should've stayed put. The small stack was no threat anymore. He could have tripled up to 180 at best (which he did). He still has to post the small blind at 200 and may drop out there. So the overall survival chance for the small stack going through your last hand and the next hand was only 25%.

[tigerite]

Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
If that was your strategy, why did you deviate at the worst time from it? If you are capable to play the last hand why didn't you raise the better hands with more FE before?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I ever had any FE before, with the possible exception of the KT hand (and maybe the 93s hand just prior to it).

[ QUOTE ]
The small stack was no threat anymore. He could have tripled up to 180 at best (which he did). He still has to post the small blind at 200 and may drop out there. So the overall survival chance for the small stack going through your last hand and the next hand was only 25%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I admit, I didn't completely think through the fact that the shorty would still be all-in for the SB next hand and so his chances of winning two hands in a row are pretty slim. I figured by calling I increase the chance of getting rid of him now as well as taking my best shot at rebuilding my stack a bit for ITM play if I luck out and win the pot.

Remember in order for me to not make the money the placing needs to go Shorty, 2ndStack, Me ... any of the other 5 combinations results in either 3rd place money or a double-up. The raiser likely has a very wide range here, and my hand isn't great but should stand up rather well against a random hand and a loose push.

[Olback]

I probarbly would have pushed the k,10 hand. If not then i defintely would have called with the a,10 from the SB.

Also agreeing with other if you wanted to fold into the money then i guess you have to fold the last hand as well.

[HesseJam]

Yeah, KTs should be pushed. Is it so bad if KQ gets called with any two? Pokerstove gives more than 60 %.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]

Remember in order for me to not make the money the placing needs to go Shorty, 2ndStack, Me ... any of the other 5 combinations results in either 3rd place money or a double-up. The raiser likely has a very wide range here, and my hand isn't great but should stand up rather well against a random hand and a loose push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for pointing that out. I overlooked that. Your push has something going for it here.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the 2nd big stack is in the blind, and your 1100 can make a big dent in his 2400 stack that he now has, I don't think he will call as liberally as you think. Most big stacks don't call from the SB without very good hands

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, KTs should be pushed. Is it so bad if KQ gets called with any two? Pokerstove gives more than 60 %.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you want to avoid situations where you are only a slight favourite on the bubble.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]

Remember in order for me to not make the money the placing needs to go Shorty, 2ndStack, Me ... any of the other 5 combinations results in either 3rd place money or a double-up. The raiser likely has a very wide range here, and my hand isn't great but should stand up rather well against a random hand and a loose push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've lost in similar situations before when I pushed a Q T x flop with ATo, and shorty was all in, figured there was no way I could lose to both, as surely both wouldn't have a Q? They didn't, big stack did though, and shorty had T9o and hit a 9 on the river. Hey ho!

[emptypockets]

I think your play was good. Playing for third in your situation makes sense, you just had bad luck.
Seems like Big Stack was a good player, not giving you any chance to push 2nd stack.

[clutch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran it through SNGPT and it comes out as a clear push. Same with KQo. Those are the only spots I see where you may have been able to make a move.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran it through SNGPT and it comes out as a clear push. Same with KQo. Those are the only spots I see where you may have been able to make a move.

[/ QUOTE ]

From SNGPT:
The KQ hand with the BB calling anytwo yeilds an EV of -3.1% not exactly what I would call a clear push.

The KT hand comes down to whether the BB will call as often as he should give the pot odds he is getting. If he will call with only Any Pair/Any Ace any Broadway then it is basically breakeven ICM-wise which is good enough for me in a spot like this. But that range has him calling about 20% of the time and I just don't see this guy folding 4 times out of 5. Certainly looking back on it, it was probably my best chance to do something.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
From SNGPT:
The KQ hand with the BB calling anytwo yeilds an EV of -3.1% not exactly what I would call a clear push.

The KT hand comes down to whether the BB will call as often as he should give the pot odds he is getting. If he will call with only Any Pair/Any Ace any Broadway then it is basically breakeven ICM-wise which is good enough for me in a spot like this. But that range has him calling about 20% of the time and I just don't see this guy folding 4 times out of 5. Certainly looking back on it, it was probably my best chance to do something.

[/ QUOTE ]

He won't call with any two.. look

Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 5: BB ( $2870 )

Thus BB has 2470 as he's put 400 into the blind. To call your push is virtually half his stack.. do you really think he does this just because of pot odds? Unless he's a donk, then he would realise it's -$EV despite being +chipEV to do so.

[45suited]

Nottom, it's easy for people to say in retrospect that folding KTs was terrible. I think that it was the prudent thing to do. You were UTG and if the two bigstacks were at all loose, it would have been a very bad move.

I would've been tempted to go with the AT even though the 2nd stack had min-raised. Again, very close but given his raising range (any two if he has a brain) I might've gone with it.

My only real problem with your play was the last hand. As someone else pointed out, clearly your strategy was to let the shorty bust. He would've been all-in again the next hand pre-flop, so I really don't like your play there.

Those spots suck though and we all know it. I'd be interested to see the numbers on the AT hand vs. an "any two" raise from the 2nd stack.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Nottom, it's easy for people to say in retrospect that folding KTs was terrible. I think that it was the prudent thing to do. You were UTG and if the two bigstacks were at all loose, it would have been a very bad move.

I would've been tempted to go with the AT even though the 2nd stack had min-raised. Again, very close but given his raising range (any two if he has a brain) I might've gone with it.

My only real problem with your play was the last hand. As someone else pointed out, clearly your strategy was to let the shorty bust. He would've been all-in again the next hand pre-flop, so I really don't like your play there.

Those spots suck though and we all know it. I'd be interested to see the numbers on the AT hand vs. an "any two" raise from the 2nd stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

[durron597]

The thing about the KTs hand is that your M is only 2. By winning those blinds and antes you actually have a shot at winning first. With this 1 pot, you can start putting pressure on the second stack because of the microstack and actually have a shot at building a stack here. Once you post the BB next hand it's over, you have to hope you get a hand and try to fold into the money.

Not pushing the KTs is horrible.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
From SNGPT:
The KQ hand with the BB calling anytwo yeilds an EV of -3.1% not exactly what I would call a clear push.

The KT hand comes down to whether the BB will call as often as he should give the pot odds he is getting. If he will call with only Any Pair/Any Ace any Broadway then it is basically breakeven ICM-wise which is good enough for me in a spot like this. But that range has him calling about 20% of the time and I just don't see this guy folding 4 times out of 5. Certainly looking back on it, it was probably my best chance to do something.

[/ QUOTE ]

He won't call with any two.. look

Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 5: BB ( $2870 )

Thus BB has 2470 as he's put 400 into the blind. To call your push is virtually half his stack.. do you really think he does this just because of pot odds? Unless he's a donk, then he would realise it's -$EV despite being +chipEV to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd call with probably half my hands or more there. I don't consider myself a donk.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way that this can be made as an absolute statement. Horrible is way too strong a word. I could buy "questionable" (but I still like his fold, actually). You are way overplaying your hand with the use of the word "horrible". Seriously.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran it through SNGPT and it comes out as a clear push.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is becoming my new pet peeve. if you don't say range you entered, this is as useful as saying "my calculator says it's a push."

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

My only real problem with your play was the last hand. As someone else pointed out, clearly your strategy was to let the shorty bust. He would've been all-in again the next hand pre-flop, so I really don't like your play there.


[/ QUOTE ]

My strategy was not to fold into the money, my strategy was about trying to maximize my EV which just happened to involve a lot of folding. On the last hand I decided to call and try and help knock out the shorty, I explained my reasoning here in a previous post, although it may have been a mistake

[ QUOTE ]
Those spots suck though and we all know it. I'd be interested to see the numbers on the AT hand vs. an "any two" raise from the 2nd stack.

[/ QUOTE ]


Agasint "any two" its a clear call. I didn't put him on any two since he should expect to get a call from one of us the vast majority of the time. Therefore he needs a hand with some showdown value. Against even the top 50% of hands its a pretty poor call ICM-wise.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
My strategy was not to fold into the money, my strategy was about trying to maximize my EV which just happened to involve a lot of folding. On the last hand I decided to call and try and help knock out the shorty, I explained my reasoning here in a previous post, although it may have been a mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

I respect your saying this but it doesn't appear to be the case based on the HH. After folding the previous hands it prolly should've become your strategy in the last hand.

[curtains]

Sometimes you have to grovel for 3rd. I don't see anything wrong with doing so in this situation. Also I think folding the KTs is fine. If the BB is good this is especially so, as I call with a ridiculous range getting over 2-1 (aka I will call you with 98o). If this is the case it's clearly correct to fold your KTd, as it's very important to get 3rd place.

Why isn't anyone on this forum willing to just grovel theyre way into 3rd place sometimes? It's extremely important to make it into the money, and it happens quite often where you should play extremely tight and just hope to get third, even giving up all your folding equity along the way.

[schwza]

i think the KTs should be a push. there's a lot of value that ICM ignores in avoiding the spot you wound up in, where there are two close short-stacks. it means that both of you will wind up folding in a lot of spots you don't want to. hugely +EV for the other two stacks, so pretty bad for you. it's close though. i'd fold K7s, for example.

i'd call the AT hand, too. if you fold and the BB calls and doubles up, your chances of making the money are pretty low, and your chances of getting 2nd+ are quite low. if the BB calls, he's probably ~40-45% to double.

if you call, the BB will only call with a monster. you're way ahead of button's range, who knows that the BB might make a terrible (pot odds-wise) fold. i haven't looked at actual ranges, but i'd guess you're around 60% against button. if you win this hand, you're almost sure to make the money, and could go deeper.

if the BB folds, you're in real bad shape, as you're going to have to fold the next hand (KQ, i like the fold) also to avoid letting the SB fold his SB and take a free shot at the money. if you hadn't gotten the walk in the BB, you'd have had a tough choice: make a horrible (pot odds) fold and have a ~2/3 chance at the money (i'm estimating the shorty has a 1/3 chance of beating you and whichever of the two bigger guys comes in), or risk bubbling when the shorty has T60.

continuing to fold when short is like a mutually assured destruction with the other shorty. AT is good enough to play here, imo. i would fold quickly if i didn't have the shorty covered for this hand, because then when i called he could come in with junk.

your k7s hand is clearly right, imo.

[curtains]

btw I hate your call with K7s in the SB...but these situations are not my specialty. However I would fold and let the shortstack try to win 2 hands in a row, and still save myself some chips for the BB if things go wrong.

[curtains]

btw one thing to note about this situation. You are far and away going for 3rd place. 1st or 2nd is a distant distant dream at this point. I think your ATo fold is just fine, and I suspect the math would prove me right.

No one should be using the phrase "go for first" in this scenario, as we are so clearly going for third place. Of course if a hand presents itself we will play it, but I don't think any clearly playable situations arose.

Please note that my most common money finish is first place. But you have to use reasonable judgement. When you have 700 and so does the shortstack, and both big stacks have 4000+, you are almost always correct in doing whatever you can to secure 3rd place and thinking of 1st+2nd later.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
btw I hate your call with K7s in the SB...but these situations are not my specialty. However I would fold and let the shortstack try to win 2 hands in a row, and still save myself some chips for the BB if things go wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to hope no one here is a calling all-in with a marginal hand with a shorter BB who is already all-in specialist.

[curtains]

Yeah I did mean this situation precisely. /images/graemlins/smile.gif If the BB had MORE chips I would call...like if they were allin with 380 I would call, because then if they survive you are in more trouble and you have some hand value.

I don't know for sure if that's correct but It's what I feel should be right.

Also maybe your call in the game was fine I really don't know. Because it has to go 1/2/3 in order of BB/BUTTON/YOU. I wonder what the odds of that are based on a random hand for the BB. I've never gotten to the math for that situation and compared it to the situation that occurs by just folding the SB.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah I did mean this situation precisely. /images/graemlins/smile.gif If the BB had MORE chips I would call...like if they were allin with 380 I would call, because then if they survive you are in more trouble and you have some hand value.

I don't know for sure if that's correct but It's what I feel should be right.

Also maybe your call in the game was fine I really don't know. Because it has to go 1/2/3 in order of BB/BUTTON/YOU. I wonder what the odds of that are based on a random hand for the BB. I've never gotten to the math for that situation and compared it to the situation that occurs by just folding the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think even if he has 70 chips I need to call. As I can't afford to let him triple up and fold his SB. With 60 chips, its trickier.