What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)

[brick]

One Attempt
Hole-in-One - Par 3 - 140 yards
I shoot in the low 80's on average and play twice a week in the summer.

If it matters, I'm only betting $1 per attempt.

[ihardlyknowher]

100:1

[Claunchy]

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100:1

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I was thinking that at first, but there's really no way that's close to +EV.

To the OP:
How many holes-in-one have you had in your life? Approximately how many par 3s have you played in your life?

[brick]

I thought about posting that but didn't want to skew the results. There's no way that the sample size is significant.

[2+2 wannabe]

anything less than 10000-1 is definitely -EV

[eric5148]

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100:1

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youhardlyknowgolf

[brick]

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anything less than 10000-1 is definitely -EV

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If I hit 10,000 shots I would make way more than 1.

[ceyoung]

GOLF DIGEST has been the source for acer odds since the 1950s. To update them for the 21st century, we gave the latest numbers for rounds played each year (528 million) and estimated aces (100,000) to Francis Scheid, Ph.D., retired chairman of the mathematics department at Boston University. "It's simple arithmetic," Scheid says for the following scenarios, which assume four par 3s of varying lengths in an 18-hole round.

A player making an ace in a given round: 5,000 to 1

Two players, same foursome, acing same hole: 17 million to 1

Acing a designated hole in a single round: 20,000 to 1

Two players in a field of 200 acing same hole in a single round: 5,000 to 1

Acing the same hole more than once in 1,000 rounds: 1 in 200

Two aces in a single round, same player: 67 million to 1

[2+2 wannabe]

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anything less than 10000-1 is definitely -EV

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If I hit 10,000 shots I would make way more than 1.

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didn't see your average score

you wouldn't make more than 3 for sure

i give you 5000-1 then

edited to show that i didn't read the original post very well

[2+2 wannabe]

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Acing a designated hole in a single round: 20,000 to 1

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[brick]

I don't have an official handicap, but my yahoo handicap is an 8. I usually shoot in the low 80's with some better rounds that bring it down.

[eric5148]

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I don't have an official handicap, but my yahoo handicap is an 8. I usually shoot in the low 80's with some better rounds that bring it down.

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Yahoo uses the same exact formula as the USGA, so it would be the same as an official hndcp.

[2+2 wannabe]

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I don't have an official handicap, but my yahoo handicap is an 8. I usually shoot in the low 80's with some better rounds that bring it down.

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yeah i apologize - i didn't read the original post very well

i was a 10 handicap golfer for 5 years, and had one ace - and probably played 1000 rounds in those 5 years

i couldn't fathom 1/5001 being spectacular odds for me to hit any given ace

what is the actual hole like? tough?

[touchfaith]

I think the fact that he will not be taking 20000 attempts should some how be factored in if it's a bet with a buddy.

You can't spend 5 bucks, drop one in and expect 20K...

Tell him you'll take 15000 to 1 /images/graemlins/wink.gif


I dunno, it depends on how deep the pockets are involved. Is it going to be a running bet, or just go out one day and try?

[brick]

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Acing a designated hole in a single round: 20,000 to 1

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This was for all players.

After thinking about hitting 10,000 shots at a single hole I think about 20 would go in. Of course that is assuming I hit multiple shots at the same hole.
So, for a new hole each time maybe 1000-1 is close.

[brick]

Pretty easy hole. Flat green. Good landing area.

[2+2 wannabe]

1000-1? i know it's only 140 and stuff, but 1000-1 is really low

i *might* give you 3000-1, but that's borderline +EV at best

1000-1 almost certainly is -EV

[2+2 wannabe]

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Pretty easy hole. Flat green. Good landing area.

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in a windy location? up/down hill? ever aced this hole?

[Duke]

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Pretty easy hole. Flat green. Good landing area.

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Wouldn't this matter a lot less if you had to ace it or not, and holing it in 2 means nothing?

~D

[brick]

No wind. Level hole. I've played the hole a few times with average results. Greens will hold the ball.

[brick]

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Pretty easy hole. Flat green. Good landing area.

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Wouldn't this matter a lot less if you had to ace it or not, and holing it in 2 means nothing?

~D

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I think it's easier to roll the ball into the hole on a flat green than a sloped one. I just have to get the ball on line, the speed of the ball could vary slightly, and it might still go in.

[Stuey]

I run a golf tournament each year and I have to buy insurance for the hole-in-one prizes. It costs $149 for 144 golfers with a $6500 prize. So if I was the guy paying out if you made the shot I would only give 30-1 odds.

That being said if I was the guy taking the shot I would want 10000-1 odds at the least. It is a bad bet, you are a good enough golfer to know the reasons why.

[pokerdirty]

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anything less than 10000-1 is definitely -EV

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If I hit 10,000 shots I would make way more than 1.

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Are we talking 9 iron (actual golf) or Putt-Putt here?

[Bulldog]

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I run a golf tournament each year and I have to buy insurance for the hole-in-one prizes. It costs $149 for 144 golfers with a $6500 prize. So if I was the guy paying out if you made the shot I would only give 30-1 odds.

That being said if I was the guy taking the shot I would want 10000-1 odds at the least. It is a bad bet, you are a good enough golfer to know the reasons why.

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I think you'll have to check your math. You are paying about $1 per attempt (149 dollars, 144 attempts) so you are getting about 6500-1 odds.

[Black Aces 518]

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After thinking about hitting 10,000 shots at a single hole I think about 20 would go in.

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Haha no.

[IggyWH]

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100:1

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I was thinking that at first, but there's really no way that's close to +EV.

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While maybe far off from real +EV in reality, with such a small amount staked (he said $1 bet), I don't really see why this is so -EV. I assume anyone here can wipe their ass with a dollar bill and not think twice about wasting a buck.

I don't care if Golf Digest says it's 5000:1, there's no way in hell I'd give anyone that kind of odds on a $1 bet.

[Nick-Zack]

I would never want to fade this bet at anywhere close to true odds. The $1 that can win means nothing while the $10K will sting a little. I guess I would take the bet though with much lower odds - 1000 to 1 maybe.

[brick]

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I would never want to fade this bet at anywhere close to true odds. The $1 that can win means nothing while the $10K will sting a little. I guess I would take the bet though with much lower odds - 1000 to 1 maybe.

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Several people have said this and I agree.

I don't think there are many people on this forum who would give me 1,000 to 1.

[brick]

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After thinking about hitting 10,000 shots at a single hole I think about 20 would go in.

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Haha no.

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I'm willing to bet a few hundred on this challenge. (even money)
Anyone want to take me up on it?
It would take me a while.
100 balls/hour X 5 hours is only 500 balls a day.
About 20 days.

[Black Aces 518]

I would bet $500 on the under, but I would have to be there, so it's not likely. You are out of your mind if you think you can hole more than 1 of every 500 shots on average.

[2+2 wannabe]

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You are out of your mind if you think you can hole more than 1 of every 500 shots on average.

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i tend to agree

but if you're hitting the shot one after another after another i think it'd make this challenge much easier

1/1000 isn't too bad off for an 8 handicapper hitting the same shot over and over with a 9 iron - i still think it's -EV, but as other posters have said, "you can wipe your ass with a dollar"