TT Preflop vs. tight player

[housenuts]

I've only just started using PokerAce HUD because my computer before couldn't run it, or PV or anything of the sort. I have over 35,000 PT hands so my database is decently large.

2/4 @ Stars
I was just dealt TT in the CO. UTG raised and it was folded to me. Now I had the ability to check out his stats.

I see after 539 hands he is 15.2/5.94/2.15 (vpip/pfr/af)
I start thinking anything he is raising with UTG is a race or he is way ahead so I fold.

This is a situation before that I wouldn't have even thought twice about 3-betting.

Please help me along as I learn the intricacies of how to incorporate PT stats into my decisions.

Thanks.

[Entity]

Against a true 6% PFR (99+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+) it's still a fairly easy 3-bet IMO -- we've got value against his range, can knock the blinds out fairly easily, and often against this sort of player can take it down on the flop/turn if he doesn't improve.

Rob

[Harv72b]

This fold makes me cringe.

For starters, it's not really a "race" unless you are both definitely going to see all 5 community cards. Rather, it's an opportunity for you to isolate with position vs. an EP raiser. If has AK/AQs (I'm assuming he folds any other unpaired hand from UTG, given his stats), you're a slight favorite. If he holds AA-JJ, you're a 4:1 dog. BUT, you have position postflop, and if you hit your 2-outer you are likely going to be able to extract a good number of bets from an overpair.

Hands like this are why postflop play is such a huge part of LHE.

In order for me to fold TT here, I pretty much have to know that my opponent is only raising if he has a higher pocket pair.

BTW, against almost any player's raise from UTG, you are either way behind a higher pair or just ahead of two overcards.

[housenuts]

i thought it was a bad fold after i did it which is why i posted it here.

i look forward to starting to play with these "pre-made" reads. it's been too long going sans-read. it's pretty hard to get reads when 4-6 tabling.

now if i could only learn how to incorporate them!! /images/graemlins/mad.gif

how much to your winrate do you figure it adds?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
i thought it was a bad fold after i did it which is why i posted it here.

i look forward to starting to play with these "pre-made" reads. it's been too long going sans-read. it's pretty hard to get reads when 4-6 tabling.

now if i could only learn how to incorporate them!! /images/graemlins/mad.gif

how much to your winrate do you figure it adds?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it adds much unless you really learn to complement numbers with real reads.

Rob

[setzf]

According to pokerstove your a 47-53 underdog to the 6% hand range so I don't see why 3 betting would be "clearly" correct. Still if this is his hand range I would 3 bet for a few reasons, you have position and stand to win more from him on average than vice versa, to shut out the blinds, to give him the opportunity to cap which would give you more information about his hand. So I'd estimate against a true 6% hand range you're a slight favorite given position and the other factors.
But....if his pfr is 6% then his UTG pfr is presumably lower. If you take away the bottom 3 hands from his range (88, ATs, KQs) you're a 42-58 dog, probably good enough for a call, and if you take away 99 then you're a big underdog and a folding would be right. Plus none of this takes into account who is in the blinds and what they might have.
Plus I think its important if you know more about his post-flop play. If hes tricky and aggressive i'd be more inclined to fold, if hes straightforward I'd be more inclined to raise. Of course I'd have to be extremely inclined to actually fold /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
According to pokerstove your a 47-53 underdog to the 6% hand range so I don't see why 3 betting would be "clearly" correct. Still if this is his hand range I would 3 bet for a few reasons, you have position and stand to win more from him on average than vice versa, to shut out the blinds, to give him the opportunity to cap which would give you more information about his hand. So I'd estimate against a true 6% hand range you're a slight favorite given position and the other factors.
But....if his pfr is 6% then his UTG pfr is presumably lower. If you take away the bottom 3 hands from his range (88, ATs, KQs) you're a 42-58 dog, probably good enough for a call, and if you take away 99 then you're a big underdog and a folding would be right. Plus none of this takes into account who is in the blinds and what they might have.
Plus I think its important if you know more about his post-flop play. If hes tricky and aggressive i'd be more inclined to fold, if hes straightforward I'd be more inclined to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokerstove assumes both of you make it to showdown. This is VERY important.

Rob

[setzf]

yes you are correct, I feel kind of dumb for not thinking about this.

he is 15.2/5.94/2.15?
imho, fold preflop

you'r big underdog if he had a bigger poket pair and small favorit if he had high(suited) cards.

yes, you have positions and could win whis pot on flop (after 3-beting preflop), but for this actions you should know such his parameters as Went to SD & Won at SD.

[lerxst337]

First, I must admit. I hate this situation. You know enough about a player that the decision to raise or fold is close, but not enough to feel good either way. It would be nice to see what he has played UTG before. If he only raises UTG with AA-JJ, and AK, you're in big trouble. He's not a REALLY aggressive player, but probably aggressive enough to 4 bet with any of these. Plus, there are 24 combinations of these pairs, and only 16 of AK. Now, if he would also raise with say KQ or AQ, and/or say pairs down to 88, I'd love to play this, especially if he'd be kind enough to just call 3 bets.

Short answer, if he's only raising AK, I'm folding. If he raises AQ too, it's close, but I'll begrudgingly raise. Anything more, let's play!!!

[TemetNosce]

Read Entity's comments above.

When finished reading them, read them again.

Repeat this process until you understand and the thought "that the decision to raise or fold is close" with TT here is not a part of your thought process anymore.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
According to pokerstove your a 47-53 underdog to the 6% hand range so I don't see why 3 betting would be "clearly" correct. Still if this is his hand range I would 3 bet for a few reasons, you have position and stand to win more from him on average than vice versa, to shut out the blinds, to give him the opportunity to cap which would give you more information about his hand. So I'd estimate against a true 6% hand range you're a slight favorite given position and the other factors.
But....if his pfr is 6% then his UTG pfr is presumably lower. If you take away the bottom 3 hands from his range (88, ATs, KQs) you're a 42-58 dog, probably good enough for a call, and if you take away 99 then you're a big underdog and a folding would be right. Plus none of this takes into account who is in the blinds and what they might have.
Plus I think its important if you know more about his post-flop play. If hes tricky and aggressive i'd be more inclined to fold, if hes straightforward I'd be more inclined to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokerstove assumes both of you make it to showdown. This is VERY important.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

it is very important, that's ture. but probably villain will raise with even fewer hands from UTG. against a 4.2% range hero is an 18% underdog for example. i don't think it is unrealistic, to assume that this is a very possible range.
don't understand me wrong, i think a 3-bet is the correct play here (because of position, momentum and the blind money), but i think it is very close.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
According to pokerstove your a 47-53 underdog to the 6% hand range so I don't see why 3 betting would be "clearly" correct. Still if this is his hand range I would 3 bet for a few reasons, you have position and stand to win more from him on average than vice versa, to shut out the blinds, to give him the opportunity to cap which would give you more information about his hand. So I'd estimate against a true 6% hand range you're a slight favorite given position and the other factors.
But....if his pfr is 6% then his UTG pfr is presumably lower. If you take away the bottom 3 hands from his range (88, ATs, KQs) you're a 42-58 dog, probably good enough for a call, and if you take away 99 then you're a big underdog and a folding would be right. Plus none of this takes into account who is in the blinds and what they might have.
Plus I think its important if you know more about his post-flop play. If hes tricky and aggressive i'd be more inclined to fold, if hes straightforward I'd be more inclined to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokerstove assumes both of you make it to showdown. This is VERY important.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

it is very important, that's ture. but probably villain will raise with even fewer hands from UTG. against a 4.2% range hero is an 18% underdog for example. i don't think it is unrealistic, to assume that this is a very possible range.
don't understand me wrong, i think a 3-bet is the correct play here (because of position, momentum and the blind money), but i think it is very close.

[/ QUOTE ]

While it's typically true that a player is raising less hands from UTG than LP, in a 15/6 player, it's generally the case that they are an all-around 6% player, as they aren't stealing with a particularly large range of hands. I'd say a person with a 6% PFR is still raising about 6% of their hands UTG.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
According to pokerstove your a 47-53 underdog to the 6% hand range so I don't see why 3 betting would be "clearly" correct. Still if this is his hand range I would 3 bet for a few reasons, you have position and stand to win more from him on average than vice versa, to shut out the blinds, to give him the opportunity to cap which would give you more information about his hand. So I'd estimate against a true 6% hand range you're a slight favorite given position and the other factors.
But....if his pfr is 6% then his UTG pfr is presumably lower. If you take away the bottom 3 hands from his range (88, ATs, KQs) you're a 42-58 dog, probably good enough for a call, and if you take away 99 then you're a big underdog and a folding would be right. Plus none of this takes into account who is in the blinds and what they might have.
Plus I think its important if you know more about his post-flop play. If hes tricky and aggressive i'd be more inclined to fold, if hes straightforward I'd be more inclined to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokerstove assumes both of you make it to showdown. This is VERY important.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

it is very important, that's ture. but probably villain will raise with even fewer hands from UTG. against a 4.2% range hero is an 18% underdog for example. i don't think it is unrealistic, to assume that this is a very possible range.
don't understand me wrong, i think a 3-bet is the correct play here (because of position, momentum and the blind money), but i think it is very close.

[/ QUOTE ]

While it's typically true that a player is raising less hands from UTG than LP, in a 15/6 player, it's generally the case that they are an all-around 6% player, as they aren't stealing with a particularly large range of hands. I'd say a person with a 6% PFR is still raising about 6% of their hands UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

under this assumption, the 3-bet is not that close of course.

[Erik W]

A 6% preflop raiser is often around 4.5% UTG.
That is like JJ+,AJs+,AQ.
Is it still a raise 3-bet then?

[Hoi Polloi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i thought it was a bad fold after i did it which is why i posted it here.

i look forward to starting to play with these "pre-made" reads. it's been too long going sans-read. it's pretty hard to get reads when 4-6 tabling.

now if i could only learn how to incorporate them!! /images/graemlins/mad.gif

how much to your winrate do you figure it adds?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it adds much unless you really learn to complement numbers with real reads.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

The galloping green guy is all over this. Against an unknown with these numbers I'm happy to come in for a raise and get it heads up.

As Howard Lederer has said, entering the pot in position for a raise with a strong hand is a very good thing in poker.

Worst case scenario you learn something about your opponent. Best case you win the pot and learn something about your opponent. I don't see a down side unless this guy just sat down, will leave after this hand and you'll never play him again.