Another very close one. Value bet it?

[DcifrThs]

im trying to work on blind war close value bets. the villian is 22/18/2.38 over 500 hands

all fold to button (fish) on my right he folds i raise A5cc in the sb and the villian calls.

flop is 8s5d4d i bet he raises i 3bet he calls.

turn is a 3x i bet he calls..

river is a 4c. check to induce a bluff from a diamond draw and since a 4 will now raise and he can also have an 8 to reduce the value bet? or bet b/c he can have an a high flush draw or a worse 5 or 22 or a draw w/ a 3 and will call?

it is unknown to me whether he will bluff raise the river.

-Barron

[Nigel]

Barron,

I would check call if you will not pay off a river raise.

Pick off a bluff, save money if he checks through an 8 thinking you're getting cute with a 4 on the river, or, get free info. If he is a strong value bettor himself, he may well bet anything that he would call with here, with the exception of K/A high.

More good seems to come from check-calling here against this unknown.

Cheers,

Nigel

[DcifrThs]

i didn't say i WOULDN"T call a raise..just unknown whether a raise could be a bluff

-Barron

[elindauer]

Hi Dcifr,

I bet, for the following reasons:

1. I don't think he is checking behind with anything that beats me.

2. I don't think he is going to bluff his missed draw all that often. Your check shouts "I am going to call".

3. I'm not sure enough about 1 and 2 to feel good about check-folding.

4. There are plenty of worse hands that will call.

5. River bluff raises are not common.

So, given that I'm going to call if I check, I think the extra money gained from weaker hands calling outweighs the times I lose the pot to a bluff raise.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[rigoletto]

I think this is very hard to answer without knowing anything about BB's perception of you. Eric makes some good points, specifically if BB know you to be agressive with draws HU, but if he has only seen you bet made hands you should probably check/call. Given your usual style (or my perception of your style) I would never call a bet from you here with a worse hand.

[The Truth]

I like check/call.

[DeeJ]

I think you sum it up nicely. People rarely bluff-raise the river, however. You don't say at what limit this is - 30/60?

Normally I would check-call the river here against a typical oppo, but since he's normally aggressive I think you are probably just ahead with a bet.

[hockey1]

Check call and I don't think it's all that close, especially if there's any possibility whatsoever that he might bluff raise the river.

[Senor Choppy]

I'm betting. The only hand you'd rather check against is one with a 4. Even a flush draw might have an ace, or maybe even a good king, you're probably better off betting against that, too. Bluff raises on the river are too uncommon to change your play when it's HU, IMO.

[TStoneMBD]

[ QUOTE ]
Check call and I don't think it's all that close, especially if there's any possibility whatsoever that he might bluff raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. i didnt think this one was close either.

[astroglide]

nobody seems to have mentioned a gutshot here. people will raise the flop with something like 97 here a lot, and that's another hand that might bluff if you check. i see way more hands bluffing than i do worse ones calling. not very close in my book.

[Turning Stone Pro]

Close call, Barron, but I think he would bet an 8 if you check, and I think you would have to call in this situation, and I dont think he is going to raise you with an 8 if you lead, and I think he will call with a ton of hands you can beat, so . . .

bet it!

TSP

[elmo]

Have we decided that we won't call a raise if we lead? If we are willing to, it is very relevant whether or not our opponent is capable of a bluff-raise. This play should be hugely profitable if your opponent will raise 2 flush cards.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you sum it up nicely. People rarely bluff-raise the river, however. You don't say at what limit this is - 30/60?

Normally I would check-call the river here against a typical oppo, but since he's normally aggressive I think you are probably just ahead with a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you haven't noticed (which i hope you haven't b/c it shouldn't matter to some degree) i have been recently leaving the limit out of my hand posts. it shouldn't really matter but this is 100/200.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
nobody seems to have mentioned a gutshot here. people will raise the flop with something like 97 here a lot, and that's another hand that might bluff if you check. i see way more hands bluffing than i do worse ones calling. not very close in my book.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think a flush draw with an ace, one that got paired(2 small suited cards w/ a 3 or K3 etc..), or a flush draw with the 3 AND an ace are the 3 most likely hands calling here...why do you think the gutter is more likely than those?

-Barron

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
why do you think the gutter is more likely than those?

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't say a gutshot was more likely, i said nobody had mentioned one. there's a wide range of hands that could be played the way he did.

[ QUOTE ]
i think a flush draw with an ace, one that got paired(2 small suited cards w/ a 3 or K3 etc..), or a flush draw with the 3 AND an ace are the 3 most likely hands calling here

[/ QUOTE ]

are you talking about calling the turn or calling the river? you've got an ace, so that's not so likely. most people will reraise decent aces/suited aces preflop, so it's even less likely. he'll call the turn with way lesser draws if that's what you're talking about, and as far as the river i think it's too bullet-pointed of a range to make it a value bet.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
as far as the river i think it's too bullet-pointed of a range to make it a value bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is an excelent point...but he also may be good enough to check and get to see my hand if i check.

is there any value gained from him knowing i can play 2nd pair like this? what i mean is, could there be enough "other value" meta game etc. value from the bet that could offset the difference if the value is almost "barely there"

RESULS:

i bet he called and i dont remember what he had but it was probably a worse kicked 5.

this one was just a close one that after i bet i wished id checked b/c i realized i just didn't want to be called or raised.

-Barron

[Nigel]

Barron,

If you bet and he calls, he sees your hand anyway. If you bet and he folds his T7, 96, or who knows what garbage he was holding (that he would have compelled to bet if you checked to him), you really lose out on some nice info on him, plus that BB.

I really think the metgame implications favor you checking here given the fact that you have no reads on this player as of yet.

Nigel

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Barron,

If you bet and he calls, he sees your hand anyway. If you bet and he folds his T7, 96, or who knows what garbage he was holding (that he would have compelled to bet if you checked to him), you really lose out on some nice info on him, plus that BB.

I really think the metgame implications favor you checking here given the fact that you have no reads on this player as of yet.

Nigel

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont get to see unshown hole cards.

-Barron

[stoxtrader]

I like that you included the description for the button.

I check-call here.