Should I have called this flop bet and chased?

Were my pot odds correct to call this bet on a draw?

$5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (1007552), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:39:08 ET - 2005/07/21
Seat 2: bwconvention (5,090)
Seat 7: teverage (4,260)
Seat 9: dcr26 (4,150)
dcr26 posts the small blind of 100
bwconvention posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bwconvention [Jc Qd]
teverage raises to 400
dcr26 raises to 600
bwconvention calls 400
teverage calls 200
*** FLOP *** [Kd 2d Th]
dcr26 bets 400
bwconvention calls 400
teverage raises to 1,200
dcr26 folds
bwconvention has 15 seconds left to act
bwconvention calls 800
*** TURN *** [Kd 2d Th] [5s]
bwconvention checks
teverage bets 2,460, and is all in
bwconvention has 15 seconds left to act
bwconvention folds
Uncalled bet of 2,460 returned to teverage
teverage shows [9h 9s] (a pair of Nines)
teverage wins the pot

[wiggs73]

The pot is offering you 4.75:1 to call the raise on the flop. Your odds of hitting on the turn are 6.5:1. So you should fold unless you think there's a good chance of getting a free look at the river, which after the raise, I doubt there is.

just so i understand better why are my odds as such? i fig.
it was close but called anyway. ty

[wiggs73]

600*3 pre-flop. 400*2 on the flop, plus the 1200 raise. So the pot is at t3800 and it costs you 800 to call. 3800/800 = 4.75 so you're getting 4.75:1 on your money.

You have 6 outs for a straight. There are 52 cards in the deck - 2 in your hand - 2 in his hand - 3 on the board. 45 cards left. That leaves 39 cards that don't help and 6 that do. 39/6 = 6.5. 4.75 < 6.5 so don't call.

Your odds would change if you had 2 shots at catching the straight, but it's highly unlikely that you will after that raise, so I didn't factor that in.

cool, thanks for the lesson.

[wiggs73]

No prob.

FWIW, with the pot where it is and the guy leading with a bet of 400 into a t1800 pot, I'd probably make a play and raise the flop here. His bet seems weak to me. Also, you would have invested about the same amount of chips but taken the lead in the hand. If you get played back at, you can probably assume you're beaten. You get a lot more info this way for the same price. And you also keep hands like 99 from making the same sort of play on you.

what would be a good flop bet you think?

[wiggs73]

I probably would have popped it to 1600 or 1700. I think it's a good spot for a semi-bluff. You're chip leader so you have plenty of fold equity, you had what appears to be a weak bet made at you, the pot is large and worth trying to take down, and you have some outs incase you get called.

I'm going to bed now, I'll have to let someone else hop on this thread with you.

thanks again Wiggs

[kuro]

Why not fold preflop? Looks like sb and button are about to go at it with the minraise and minreraise. If you stay out of it you increase the liklihood that one of them busts.

QJ 3 handed facing a weak raise?

[ajohnson16]

[ QUOTE ]
600*3 pre-flop. 400*2 on the flop, plus the 1200 raise. So the pot is at t3800 and it costs you 800 to call. 3800/800 = 4.75 so you're getting 4.75:1 on your money.

You have 6 outs for a straight. There are 52 cards in the deck - 2 in your hand - 2 in his hand - 3 on the board. 45 cards left. That leaves 39 cards that don't help and 6 that do. 39/6 = 6.5. 4.75 < 6.5 so don't call.

Your odds would change if you had 2 shots at catching the straight, but it's highly unlikely that you will after that raise, so I didn't factor that in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn't it technically be 39/8 since you don't know that he's holding 99? That would give you 4.5-1 on your money, thus making it the correct call.

[kuro]

You're getting ready to play a big pot 3 way out of position with QJ against donks that have both expressed interest in the pot and your call doesn't close the action. That's a tough spot to be in. Minraise either means that they have a hand or they are setting up a bluff. Either way you're going to have a tough time post flop unless you flop well.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
600*3 pre-flop. 400*2 on the flop, plus the 1200 raise. So the pot is at t3800 and it costs you 800 to call. 3800/800 = 4.75 so you're getting 4.75:1 on your money.

You have 6 outs for a straight. There are 52 cards in the deck - 2 in your hand - 2 in his hand - 3 on the board. 45 cards left. That leaves 39 cards that don't help and 6 that do. 39/6 = 6.5. 4.75 < 6.5 so don't call.

Your odds would change if you had 2 shots at catching the straight, but it's highly unlikely that you will after that raise, so I didn't factor that in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn't it technically be 39/8 since you don't know that he's holding 99? That would give you 4.5-1 on your money, thus making it the correct call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming that he has a king, which would be the worst case here, because then a queen or jack hitting doesn't help. We need to hit a straight to have the best hand.

If he turned over his cards and showed 99 you'd actually have the odds to call because then you could hit an ace, of which there are 3, a queen or jack, of where there are 6, or a 9 of which there are 1. So your odds would then be 3.5:1 and it's an easy call. We can't know that we have 2 overcards to a pair though, so I was assuming that he'd need to hit the straight in order to win.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting ready to play a big pot 3 way out of position with QJ against donks that have both expressed interest in the pot and your call doesn't close the action. That's a tough spot to be in. Minraise either means that they have a hand or they are setting up a bluff. Either way you're going to have a tough time post flop unless you flop well.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the deep stacks, I don't mind seeing a flop here. Just need to proceed with caution even if you get a piece of it. For example, if the guy bets like he actually has something, just fold the OESD.

[fnord_too]

I hate the mini-reraise pre flop.

I don't like your lead on the flop, it accomplishes nothing (400 into an 1800 pot, yuk!). I prefer pushing when it gets back to you. Villain is way underbetting the pot (seems to be a theme), put him to the test. If called you are only slightly worse than a 2:1 dog to make your hand, and if villain has something less than top pair, you are better still by a lot. (Also, you have backdoor flush possibilities, which adds to your chances if called).

I think you should call preflop, and c/r the flop.

When I first read (and responded) to this hand I thought you had JdQd, which is a monster draw. The hand you have is still pretty good, though, and a perfect semi-bluffng hand here.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]

You have 6 outs for a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think discouting the two diamonds when it is three way is too conservative. I would count all 8 outs, though maybe count it as 7.5 if you want to err on the side of caution. Also, hero has a BDF draw, and his pairing outs may be good.

Note to OP, you may want to end the hand history at where you have your qustion in the future and ask what people think you should do at that point. In this case it would be something like:

"Villain raises to T1200, Hero ???"

Then post the results after some discussion.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You have 6 outs for a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think discouting the two diamonds when it is three way is too conservative. I would count all 8 outs,

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh huh... you see, basically what this comes down to is that I'm an idiot. You indeed have 8 outs to a straight, making the odds of hitting 4.6:1, making it slightly correct to call, and making me slightly dumber than average. Good times.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate the mini-reraise pre flop.

I don't like your lead on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero didn't do either of these things.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hate the mini-reraise pre flop.

I don't like your lead on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero didn't do either of these things.

[/ QUOTE ]

DOH! I was thinking he was the dcr guy. Non converted hands hurt my brain.

Edit - and his screen name is the same as his 2+2 name. I am so friggin observant. Meh, more coffee!!