$215s - Bubble Spot I Hated

[Unarmed]

Maybe this is a dead easy call for some.
Villain is stupid tight.
Guy to my right has folded his last two SBs for me.
No one here understands keeping the short stack alive.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t3055)
SB (t3940)
Hero (t1495)
UTG (t1510)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG Pushes.

[curtains]

I think I would wince and call. It's really painful but you just have to, way too many hands he would allin that A4o beats, and if you fold he gets a 2-1 chip lead.

[WebGuySteve]

I would probably also call here, though, I can see the argument for folding and pushing any 2 at him on the next hand as he will probably fold a lot of hands since he just won the previous one. This is especially so given your read.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is stupid tight.
Guy to my right has folded his last two SBs for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't these two factors possibly be enough to turn this into a fold?

[ChrisV]

Ugh. I think I fold. I'm hoping I can steal the BB off Mr Stupid Tight next hand. If not, hopefully I can invest my last thousand at even money. That'll give me the same chip EV as investing my last 1000 in the BB here would, assuming im 33% to win. And frankly, I doubt I am. I think I'm much more likely to be 30% or 25%.

[ChuckNorris]

I think that at least in 55's and lower even ridiculously tight players (although maybe not some of the tightest of the ridiculously tight /images/graemlins/tongue.gif) start pushing a lot of hands in villains place here. Looks like a call to me.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. I think I fold. I'm hoping I can steal the BB off Mr Stupid Tight next hand. If not, hopefully I can invest my last thousand at even money. That'll give me the same chip EV as investing my last 1000 in the BB here would, assuming im 33% to win. And frankly, I doubt I am. I think I'm much more likely to be 30% or 25%.

[/ QUOTE ]

F*ck I'm happy you're posting again Chris /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. I think I fold. I'm hoping I can steal the BB off Mr Stupid Tight next hand. If not, hopefully I can invest my last thousand at even money. That'll give me the same chip EV as investing my last 1000 in the BB here would, assuming im 33% to win. And frankly, I doubt I am. I think I'm much more likely to be 30% or 25%.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I would fold here, too. I didn't realize that was why until I read Chris' explanation... but, yep.

The problem with calling with a weak ace is that you can't ever be a 60% favorite. Even on the off chance he has a weaker ace, you still aren't a 60% favorite. On the other hand, calling against a wide-range pusher with a hand like K-Ts gives you a reasonable chance of being more than a 60% favorite (vs. Q-9 or something)... while still being only slightly worse than 50-50 vs. a weak ace.

I think this is something that a lot of players don't understand well (despite Eastbay's kickass work on the topic). When you have to make a tough calling decision on the bubble, it's not merely about whether your hand rates to be ahead... but rather how likely you are to be significantly ahead or behind. A weak ace is a really poor calling hand in this regard, because of it's up-side limitations and it's downside liability. You can very easily be a 30% dog (v. A-big), without any chance to be a 60% favorite.

Irieguy

[Newt_Buggs]

Unless UTG is terrible I doubt that you're only 33% against his hand range. What do you think he's doing if he gets delt something like QJ, folding? Its possible, but I wouldn't count on it

I still fold though

[curtains]

On second thought I now lean towards folding, but it does depend on some things.

[microbet]

It's tough enough to call here without your read on villian being tight and without a SB that is taking it easy on you.

In this game I think your prospects are still pretty good if you fold.

I have been going sans SNG-analyzer for bit, but I think with a fairly tight range on villian this will be -$EV.

[curtains]

Yeah again I agree, I think I acted too quickly this time.

[AliasMrJones]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is stupid tight.[\quote]

I fold and push any 2 at the next available opportunity. If he weren't stupid tight my answer might be different.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe this is a dead easy call for some.
Villain is stupid tight.
Guy to my right has folded his last two SBs for me.
No one here understands keeping the short stack alive.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t3055)
SB (t3940)
Hero (t1495)
UTG (t1510)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG Pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]


btw the fact that "no one understands keeping the short stack alive" is not really an insult towards them, but to yourself for stating it as though it was something very important.

[microbet]

I was wondering who the short stack was and giving the benefit of doubt I was just taking that as information that no one was trying to keep anyone alive.

I really only think about keeping a stack alive when I have a big lead over two other people and there is another tiny stack and the two middle stacks really seem to want to race for 3rd.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
btw the fact that "no one understands keeping the short stack alive" is not really an insult towards them, but to yourself for stating it as though it was something very important.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea why you took the time to point this out, but whatever. The fact is, its quite relevent. If big stack understands the effect a short stack has on the game, he's more likely to push any two cards the next hand if I fold this. This issue is magnified because the BB on the next hand is tight as a nit and clearly just trying to make the money. Does that seem important to you?

[microbet]

It does seem to be getting to the point where some big stacks would certainly thinking about pushing at the medium stacks, if not intentionally yielding to the smaller stack. If you don't expect big stack to have a wide pushing range on the next hand, that is certainly relevant.

Curtains has a well documented and long history on the 'keeping the bubble alive' issue.

[curtains]

I just thnik the whole concept of intentionally keeping the short stack alive is overrated. That doesnt mean that I don't take advantage of the situations that occur when they are alive, but I don't find them so +EV that I'll go out of my way to keep them alive.

Anyway I think we are arguing about the wording. I think you were saying that the big stacks werent attacking in spots they obviously should be, due to the presence of two shortish stacks.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
btw the fact that "no one understands keeping the short stack alive" is not really an insult towards them, but to yourself for stating it as though it was something very important.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea why you took the time to point this out, but whatever. The fact is, its quite relevent. If big stack understands the effect a short stack has on the game, he's more likely to push any two cards the next hand if I fold this. This issue is magnified because the BB on the next hand is tight as a nit and clearly just trying to make the money. Does that seem important to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

btw I understand the effect that a shortstack has on the game but it doesnt mean I go out of my way to keep them alive. This is basically what I meant.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. I think I fold. I'm hoping I can steal the BB off Mr Stupid Tight next hand. If not, hopefully I can invest my last thousand at even money. That'll give me the same chip EV as investing my last 1000 in the BB here would, assuming im 33% to win. And frankly, I doubt I am. I think I'm much more likely to be 30% or 25%.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I would fold here, too. I didn't realize that was why until I read Chris' explanation... but, yep.

The problem with calling with a weak ace is that you can't ever be a 60% favorite. Even on the off chance he has a weaker ace, you still aren't a 60% favorite. On the other hand, calling against a wide-range pusher with a hand like K-Ts gives you a reasonable chance of being more than a 60% favorite (vs. Q-9 or something)... while still being only slightly worse than 50-50 vs. a weak ace.

I think this is something that a lot of players don't understand well (despite Eastbay's kickass work on the topic). When you have to make a tough calling decision on the bubble, it's not merely about whether your hand rates to be ahead... but rather how likely you are to be significantly ahead or behind. A weak ace is a really poor calling hand in this regard, because of it's up-side limitations and it's downside liability. You can very easily be a 30% dog (v. A-big), without any chance to be a 60% favorite.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I still don't understand why this breakdown matters. The way I see it, all that matters is how often my hand will win against his range. Why worry about never being a 60% favorite when all the 54-46 edges will add up in the long long run anyway?
Calling with KTo because you have a higher win% against his range than you do with A4o makes sense to me. Calling with it because you're more likely to be further ahead...doesn't.

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
I still don't understand why this breakdown matters. The way I see it, all that matters is how often my hand will win against his range. Why worry about never being a 60% favorite when all the 54-46 edges will add up in the long long run anyway?
Calling with KTo because you have a higher win% against his range than you do with A4o makes sense to me. Calling with it because you're more likely to be further ahead...doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason you should care about being a 60% favorite some of the time is that in order to have an edge against his range, you need to have that edge to make up for all the times that he's way ahead (better aces and big/medium pairs). If you could safely say that you're a 54% favorite over every hand he's pushing, it would be fine. But clearly, this isn't the case.

[skierdude1000]

I think I'd fold it here

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


I still don't understand why this breakdown matters. The way I see it, all that matters is how often my hand will win against his range. Why worry about never being a 60% favorite when all the 54-46 edges will add up in the long long run anyway?
Calling with KTo because you have a higher win% against his range than you do with A4o makes sense to me. Calling with it because you're more likely to be further ahead...doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ilya, you already know that KTs is going to do better than A4o against his push range.

I was trying to explain why the weak ace is such a bad calling hand. Everybody knows that A4 is favored against KTs. Every SNG pro knows that KTs will do far better than A4o against a pusher. A few SNG pros understand that even 9-7s will do better than A4. But this is counterintuitive, so I thought I would comment conceptually about why the weak ace blows so bad. You can't use Eastbay's PT while you're 8-tabling and action is to you on the bubble... but you might remember this thread.

Irieguy

[Jay36489]

Why does the 97s do better then A4o? If hes tight you would think 97 is dominated more then A4.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I still don't understand why this breakdown matters. The way I see it, all that matters is how often my hand will win against his range. Why worry about never being a 60% favorite when all the 54-46 edges will add up in the long long run anyway?
Calling with KTo because you have a higher win% against his range than you do with A4o makes sense to me. Calling with it because you're more likely to be further ahead...doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ilya, you already know that KTs is going to do better than A4o against his push range.

I was trying to explain why the weak ace is such a bad calling hand. Everybody knows that A4 is favored against KTs. Every SNG pro knows that KTs will do far better than A4o against a pusher. A few SNG pros understand that even 9-7s will do better than A4. But this is counterintuitive, so I thought I would comment conceptually about why the weak ace blows so bad. You can't use Eastbay's PT while you're 8-tabling and action is to you on the bubble... but you might remember this thread.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes perfect sense. Sorry if I sounded a little confrontational, I was just confused.

I

[lastchance]

I disagree a bit. Obviously, it's about how much you're ahead or behind, but it's really about ranges, and how well you fare against certain ranges.

There is no way I'm ever calling 97s here. I think you can easily call A4 if opponent's pushing range is very, very wide. A4 gets a lot better as opponent's range gets wider.

[raptor517]

well, i havent read the 230958093285023 responses, but i would imagine it would say, this is an easy fold.. if hes super tight, A4 isnt ahead of much, and i would push ANY 2 utg on this so called super tight bb. holla