Commerce 100-200 AQo

[Klepton]

Same table as my first hand, like around an orbit later. I haven't played a single hand since the first one either. BB is the very tall white guy with a shaved head that wears sunglasses and says "nice hand" to everyone that wins the hand. Probably the guy that thinks very hard about every decision.

MP1 limps, I raise AQo, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop is 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB bets out, MP1 folds, I call.

Turn K /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets, I raise, BB thinks for 2 seconds and calls.

River K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB checks, I insta-bet...

[smurfitup]

i really don't understand the bet on the river... if he calls you on the turn with a pair, the second king sure as hell won't scare him from calling you again... if he was drawing, he won't call anyway... maybe you'll get a call from a8 or aj or something, but for the most part, it looks like the guy is calling with anything that beats you and folding anything that you beat... i check the river and take the free showdown...

[sam h]

Kind of hard to tell much from your description of BB, but I doubt many players at this level will fold a better hand on the river here after calling the turn. In a game with high levels of distrust, which I assume is the case here, I would just fold the turn.

[DpR]

I do not agree with the other posters that you have no fold equity here at all. He could have called the turn still thinking he was behind (to a K or and overpair to the flop). OR, if he is thinking a little more could call the turn to make sure you are not bluffing, yet plans to fold the river to your bet (since you would take a free showdown if you had no pair). I actually think the latter play is a bit more expert if you know your opponenet is not making deperation river bluffs (which I find generally to be true among TAGs online).

Now you take your thinking to his level and bet the river anyway, knowing he may release now (since he knows you wouldnt bet the river w/o a hand). I think this is a good play - but only if your opponent may be thinking as I described.

Generally speaking I do not think there are a ton of players playing that way (and certainly not any average players). Most players are calling the river if they call the turn. IMO, more advanced players may fold the river though (this is in fact a play I occasionally make vs. specific opponents).

[golferbrent]

You insta-bet... anytime the dreaded insta-bet occurs it usually results in a lost hand and some more lost money. The bettor can't possible fold any hands that are better then your hand. The next king will certainly make it even more likely of a call IMO.

The play on the end is to check and hope he missed his st8 draw. Otherwise you are just spewing chips... b/c if he can make a call on turn with a pair he certainly is going to call on the end. The fact that you put a raise in on the turn makes the pot larger which increases the likely hood of a call down in a heads up pot as well.

Unfortunately, I believe you lost this hand... but you won the first hand. Which was fortunately a bigger pot...

[surfdoc]

I agree hero may have some fold equity. I have no idea how this game plays but couldn't BB have a pair/draw combo hand like 78s that he may release on the river?

[JAA]

Many only somewhat thinking players decide on the turn whether or not to call you down in this spot if they have any pair. It is true he could have a draw, but you don't gain anything by betting...I disagree with those who think you have a non-negligable amount of fold equity. ESPECIALLY with the K pairing on the river. This tends to make people (usually rightfully so) even more skeptical that you caught a K on the turn.

Just my 2c - Jags

[kurosh]

I play it the same. I like it.

[Kovner]

I think I'd want to have a specific read that he lays down in spots like this, before making this river bet.

[Mikey]

I honestly like the play.

You took advantage on the turn of a scare card and you raised implying you had AKo or even AA.

When he leads the turn and then you raise and he thinks for 2 seconds and then calls and doesn't reraise....

he usually has a hand like
98
67

or quite possibly a straight draw.

If you bet on the river and you put him as a thinking player he'll usually lay all those hands down believing you have an over pair. If he reduces your hand down then the only think he can beat on the river is a bluff.

I like the play and I'd do the same thing...

Good hand.

[samdash]

What if they have somekind of pair+gutshot hand and decide to call the turn bet and check/fold the river unimproved. Their logic is similar to yours - they feel a bet on the river after this will only be for value for the very reasons you list. From the description, it sounds like this guy could be someone to try this against. Also, making this kind of bet and getting called is probably very good for your image as it might make people think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the whole call the turn, calling you down thing. I could see people becoming very passive against someone who made this play thinking they're a total nut. In general you're right of course, but I'm sure Klepton was well aware of the ideas you list at the time.

[Klepton]

he tapped his cards and folded...

that way he did it I assume it was a 9 or 7, but sure it could have been nothing also.

[Paluka]

BB might have had JT here also. I'm not sure the river bet is worth it, I dont' think this guy folded a pair.

[Aces McGee]

For those posters who don't like Klepton's river bet, I'm curious to know how much that is influenced by the turn card pairing on the river. Are you more likely to bet if the river is a blank?

Thanks.

-McGee

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
For those posters who don't like Klepton's river bet, I'm curious to know how much that is influenced by the turn card pairing on the river. Are you more likely to bet if the river is a blank?

Thanks.

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

River bet is definitely better if river is a blank.

[mike l.]

"that way he did it I assume it was a 9 or 7, but sure it could have been nothing also."

dude it was nothing. there's no way someone in that game is calling the turn and then mucking the river with a pair. i wouldve checked when that last K came. he probably had and open ended straight draw. they tap the table and smile when they think you are naive enough to show your hand without a showdown.

[anatta]

Well known to normally check here. Picked the type that betting just might be okay, but that is a BAD BAD river. Thinking going on across table, no doubt aware that ace high would raise the turn and take a free showdown...therefore calling the raise and see river action. Concludes bet means the goods. Bad river though and that is enough to stop betting.

Just might see an unorthodox one pair laydown, but not when king pairs, Bayes type thoughts arise.