Is it just a crap shoot? (Or, just another loser)

[beekeeper]

I believe that winning poker is about skill and guts and not luck.

That said, I don't know if I can take having my Queens busted by any more K4o that connects on the river.

In my local bar game there are usually between 8-12 players, with 1-3 solid players, and the rest all loose, calling/raising stations. No matter what I choose to play, from what position, it's certain that--preflop--one player will call anything with any face card and another will call anything with 2 suited cards--and usually it's more than one for each.

I keep telling myself that I want to play against these players because they are making mistakes and eventually I will profit, but I keep finishing 3rd (just out of the money). My regular game is about to kick off, and I'm considering just dumping this game because it's not profitable. But I play because I like to play and because I think any time I'm playing, I'm getting better.

Last night I evaluated this game, and I kept coming to the same conclusion: to beat this game I have to catch cards at the right time to win.

Here's the factors that make me think this way:

<ul type="square"> --Blinds double every time someone is knocked out, so that the BB can be 1/3rd the average chip stack before the button's passed you 3x.

--Probably 2/3rds of the players will play any face card or any suited cards to the river for any size bet.

--They play two tables until it's down to 7 players, so for most of the tourny we're playing 4,5,6-handed.
[/list]

Is there any way to beat a game like this without catching more than your share of premium cards?

Is it even worth playing in a game like this--what can it teach me about playing skillful poker?

Am I being outplayed?

[SheridanCat]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that winning poker is about skill and guts and not luck.


[/ QUOTE ]

Then you're going to be very disappointed going forward. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Luck plays a big role in poker. Ask all those poor saps who I saw get their Aces cracked by Kings at the WSOP this year. The key is to seize the situations where the luck is less of a factor and capitalize on them.

[ QUOTE ]

That said, I don't know if I can take having my Queens busted by any more K4o that connects on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

The question is, how did K4o get to the river. Did you play passively and let that K4o come along cheaply or did you make him pay?

Here's the deal. When you play a hand correctly and your opponent played incorrectly, you actually won regardless of who was pushed the pot at the end of the hand. It sounds like you know this, you just have to actually believe it.

It's a long run game.

[ QUOTE ]

Is there any way to beat a game like this without catching more than your share of premium cards?

Is it even worth playing in a game like this--what can it teach me about playing skillful poker?


[/ QUOTE ]

It's a bit of a crapshoot, no doubt about it. Any chance of getting them to increase the blinds by time or by hands played? The problem is that as the tables go short, the maniac play of your opponents starts to get more correct.

I'm not sure what this game could teach you. It might teach you about reading tells that allow you to get your money in when you sense your opponent is weak. It appears to be a very fast format.

[ QUOTE ]

Am I being outplayed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably not. It sounds like a luck issue at this point more than a play issue to me.

Regards,

T

[beekeeper]

Thanks, SheridanCat, for another thoughtful post.

I am playing my strong starting hands aggressively--I've learned from trial and error--but honest to god those guys see a face card and think it's a made hand. The only reason I don't go all in when I'm looking at JJ or better is that I know I'll be called (because I have and others have) by not one, but 2-3 three-outers! /images/graemlins/crazy.gif I wish I knew how to play those hands to push them out. I'm open to any suggestions.

Your advice about the maniac play being correct as we get short-handed is well-taken and appreciated. I don't like it because I don't know how to find my edge there, but I know you're correct. I don't want to play like a maniac myself--I'm not comfortable with that style.

I've been working on my reads, but lately have lost a little faith in my ability because some of the regulars whose betting style I had figured out are starting to mix it up more.

Why do I love this game so much?!

Thanks a lot. H

[MrTrik]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that winning poker is about skill and guts and not luck.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you haven't acquired SSH by Miller and freinds do so. If you don't believe that there is a ton of luck in poker and that as luck evens out in the long run, the skill of playing well will win you money -- then this book will help you as others will.

[Pov]

Well just to make sure you don't have unrealistic expectations, I think you should first realize that against a player who is holding any pair, any Ace or any King, your QQ is only going to win 70% of the time if played to the river. That's a huge advantage, but nearly 1/3 of the time you're going to lose. Make sure you keep that in mind.

In a game of no fold 'em you should welcome the poor players, but realize you're going to have to value bet drastically more and bluff drastically less. You've got AK and hit your king? Great, you should be betting that hand, but don't bluff when the flop comes Q high and ragged. If you hit a huge hand, don't slow play, the very players that are busting your QQ overpair are the ones you can bust all day long with obvious straights and flushes. You'll be amazed at what people will call with in these bar games in my experience.

But remember - the quicker the blinds escalate and the smaller your chips in relation to the blinds, the more luck is involved. In these quickie tournaments where you maybe play 40 or 50 hands you've got to hit some flops to win. You're sure not going to fold your way to the podium and you aren't going to bluff your way there either. Both things are still important, but you're going to have to hit cards in between or you simply won't win. That's all there is to it. The higher the luck factor the longer it will take your skill to emerge victorious. Also, it's likely your skill is not well adjusted to short handed play and some of the over-aggressive players may actually be playing closer to correct strategy than you are - it's worth evaluating anyway.

[Sakuraba]

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason I don't go all in when I'm looking at JJ or better is that I know I'll be called (because I have and others have) by not one, but 2-3 three-outers! I wish I knew how to play those hands to push them out. I'm open to any suggestions.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have this totally backwards. Getting called by hands with only a few outs is ideal when you go all in. Even if a few of them call you, you will win more than enough extra the times you win to compensate for the fact that you will not will as often.

If you are not willing to make plays like this, it probably explains why you are not doing well. With this structure (very large blinds), there is going to be a large gambling element to the game, but it is essential that you play these hands aggressively since you can either win the large blinds or force opponents to commit large amounts of chips with very poor odds.

With this blind structure, your opponents may not be playing as poorly as you think. It changes hand values dramatically.

[beekeeper]

Thanks for the feedback. (I guess I should have said "skill and guts more than just luck" /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

I read SSH by Miller about a year ago, when I first started playing, and then loaned it out. More than one post has made it clear I need to get it back and reread it. I obviously need to work on my short-hand game.

A clarification and follow-up question:

I don't know if I made it clear that there will usually be at least 2 and often as many as 4 players playing 3 outers to the river--usually regardless of the bets. If you have enough chips, and they are not short-stacked, you can go-all-in, and that will sometimes reduce it to a heads-up situation.

Should I still be value betting? Is Sakaruba's advice still correct in such a case?

Last night it was my QQ and JJ, but I have had, as have the others, had Aces up, trip Kings, busted consistently. (Just an aside, half of them will play 69o any time they have it).

I understand the logic that in the long run the loose play or mistakes they make is profitable to me, but experience is not bearing that out. If there were more solid players, or a better ratio of solid players to LAGs, would that "charge" these players for their mistakes more than 1-2 solid players can alone?

Thanks for the great advice.

[SheridanCat]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't know if I made it clear that there will usually be at least 2 and often as many as 4 players playing 3 outers to the river--usually regardless of the bets. If you have enough chips, and they are not short-stacked, you can go-all-in, and that will sometimes reduce it to a heads-up situation.

Should I still be value betting? Is Sakaruba's advice still correct in such a case?


[/ QUOTE ]

Check this out, from PokerStove:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: As 9s 3d

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 43.8943 % [ 00.44 00.00 ] { KdKc }
Hand 2: 13.2990 % [ 00.13 00.00 ] { 9c6s }
Hand 3: 05.0124 % [ 00.05 00.00 ] { QhQd }
Hand 4: 37.7942 % [ 00.38 00.00 ] { 8s7s }

</pre><hr />

This cold be pretty typical of a very loose game. You're still a big favorite. So, yes, value bet those babies. Make them pay to out draw you.

Regards,

T