10-20 NL At Commerce with Bottom Set

[FatalError]

Hero is in BB with ~10k in chips and 22

UTG+2 limps, folded to SB (~7-8k) who makes it 80, hero calls, UTG+2 calls

Flop is K82 with 2 spades, SB checks, Hero bets 150 and both players call

Turn Offsuit 6, SB Bets 200, Hero makes it 600, UTG+2 folds, SB Makes it 1200 Immediately, Hero just calls here (First mistake???)

River Offsuit 3, SB Bets 2000 leaving himself 3000, Hero...

Comments? Reraise turn? if not whats the river action, SB has been pegged as slightly crazy

[ShortySaurus]

you played it fine you have to call that river. If villain has KK then you got set over set and there is nothing you can do.

[thabadguy]

Is the King a spade?
I think i call this. Real Hands that make sense here(given that villain is "slightly crazy" are AA(most likely with the As) and AsKs. If he has KK, its a weird weird way to play that flop. I think you have to call.

[chuddo]

the ol "mackeral in the moonlight."

one question is whether this player would open from the blinds with 88 after limpers, solely to build a pot with stacks this deep.

if so, you can't rule out being against 88 here, or the more obvious with the raise KK.

he may have risked someone hitting a free good one on him in order to disguise his hand and hope to get paid by a bluff, or a moderate holding.

also taking the chance of hitting a gin card that completes a flush and fills him up.

when he check-calls the flop after raising from the sb, then weak-leads the turn, it seems as if he is begging to be raised on the turn.

then after you oblige him he goes ahead and min-raise 3-bets you? strange things are afoot at the circle-K.

i really think there is a very good chance you are in a rough spot here as it seems villian is begging to be called on every street. after all of the action you have handled, he can't be wanting anymore of it with just AK.

i think the only way your hand is definitely good is if villain is very sophisticated, and yet misread you for the nut flush draw.

if that were the case he may be setting you up on the turn solely to take pot on a non-flush river. but that scenario is more unlikely than an oddly played top set, soo....

"one minute it is real shiny, the next it stinks."
all hail the matador.

[FatalError]

Not the replies i was expecting, this hand was actually played by a friend and he thought it was a close raise as did i, neither of us thought folding was an option... i seem to see my opponent show AA or AK here alot, but he might fold these to a river raise alot... is that what makes it out of the question? Failing that it's an autocall?

[ChewyMint]

Definately an autocall. I expect to see AK or AA here more often than not. If its set over set on an uncoordinated board, you're going broke.

ChewyMint

[flawless_victory]

no effing way am i raising this river... but calling looks good... youre getting a good price.

[chuddo]

if i am calling, i am raising. that typically doesn't make much sense or apply in most situations, but for me it does here.

if i am confident enough my hand is good to call 2k more here i am going to go ahead and push the rest of it in. calling just seems so ugly here.

if i just call on the end, and villain shows me KK or 88, im not going to be patting myself on the back for saving 3k. im going to be pissed i couldn't sniff it out and find the fold.

if i call on the end and he shows me AA, AK, or K8, im going to be just as pissed for not getting it in there on him and pick up a possible 3k more.

it isn't often im folding bottom set on a completely uncoordinated board getting 2-1 on my river call, but it has been made.

i think if i were in this spot i would go into the tank, start talking my ass off to get any sort of reaction, and go with the gut on the fold or the push.

if i found a fold i might say that i missed my flush draw and ask if he had a big one, as people seemed inclined to show their top sets or aces to busted draws for some reason. and if im shown aces i probably throw up.

[soah]

Without any read it's pretty impossible to definitively put him on a hand, but he's clearly representing a monster (Donks play top set like this constantly). Does he have it? If he doesn't have it, then what does he actually have, and how much will he pay off with a worse hand? That's the type of stuff you should figure out before the hand even takes place... posting it on 2+2 won't answer any of those questions. This hand isn't about math or fundamentals. It's just about knowing your opponent.

[FatalError]

Hero calls, Villian shows AA...

Villian had 3k left, anyone want to take a guess at how much EV Hero leaves on the table here when he doesn't raise? My guess is it isn't much because of how often villian gets off his hand along with how often villian DOES have a set

[flawless_victory]

this guy played his hand really freaky... if you push on the end, do you really belive this guy is gonna call with AK/AA? sometimes maybe... hard for me to comment on this wierd hand bc i have never played in this game... i have played in games where i would push the river almost every time, and ive played in games where i could prob lay down on the turn for the baby threebet (yikes!)...
on the river you are getting ~5.5:2 (waaay better than 2:1). that is a good price... i think call is the best play here... its not like you need to be a fav against his range to call.

[thabadguy]

Unless he is really crazy or you two have history, i dont see him calling an allin on river with AA.
OOC, did he have the As?

[Double Down]

In response to the person who said that if he is going to call, he should push, that is incorrect and here is why. Because by this point, there are only 2 hands that he could have that the hero beats: AA and AK. And if the hero pushes, there is a good chance that the villain would lay them both down. The hands that won't lay down? 88, 66, KK. If this was a solid player, I wouldn't have put him on AA because AA wouldn't rereraise on the turn. A lesser player might. If it is a good player, I put him on a bigger set because on the flop he was slowplaying, but then realizing that you bet at it, knew that you would play back at him on the turn so he can come out firing and expect a raise. He would also want to come out firing just in case you bet with the flush draw on the flop and he wouldn't want you to check behind on the turn and get a free card. Even against a bad player, I might lay down because AA (maybe Ak) is playing back at you, but even the odds of that seem slim. 3 66's, 3 88's, 3 kk's, and only 6 AA. I would call but I wouldn't like it.

[chuddo]

like i said i am making my river decision and it is going to be completely read dependant. only against a complete unknown and someone that i cannot even get the slightest read on would i consider calling.

and if someone is going to play AA this terribly/fantastic then i think they are more likely to call on the end to a push, particularly if they do not have the As and can suspect a bluff.

someone that is bored and does not have plans to lay in the pool all day like myself should run a few EV cals with some numbers.

20% has us beat (KK/88) calls every time we lose.
40% has AA/AK calls our push and we win.
40% has AA/AK or less and folds to our push and we win.

find the respective EV's of pushing and calling and folding both in those spots.

now find the EV's when ranges go to:
lose/calls push/folds push
30/35/35
50/25/25
60/20/20

then for fun coming up with general equations if ya'd like.