+/- bubble%

[JayKon]

What is your and your normal SnG buyin, SNG Tracker +/- Bubble % and ~games


Mine is $11, +5% & 137.

[Sabrazack]

22, -4% and 700. -4% is due to me having been overly agressive over like 300 tours before i restrained myself abit.

[HesseJam]

I am playing the SnGs for a month now and always wondered what +/- bubble% means. Can anyone clue me in?

What's a good figure for that and why?

[tigerite]

I already answered this...

Normally from 4-handed to ITM, being as there are 4 people left and 3 go on, you'd expect to be 75% ITM. For every % point you are over or below that, there is your +/-.

[Mr_J]

Well, it means the % you get ITM when on the bubble. So if there are 4 of you left, you should have a 75% chance of getting ITM. A high figure here isn't necessarily good, and could mean that you're not being aggressive enough on the bubble.

[playtitleist]

Thus, the calculation is:

Firsts + Seconds + Thirds / Firsts + Seconds + Thirds + Fourths

You then measure against 75%. But you need a LARGE sample size, because of the multiple variables including bad beats, short stacks, large stacks, good luck, disconnects, etc.

[schwza]

this seems like a pretty useless stat. the # of chips you have when you get to 4-handed is going to have a huge effect.

[playtitleist]

at first glance, "A high number isn't necessarily good" sounds absurd. But, Mr_J is correct. If your percentage is only 50, but 90% of those are wins, you are better off than if your percentage is 80 with 90% of those being third.

[Nicholasp27]

not useless, but not the whole puzzle either; just a piece

if u have a low +/-% but feel u are pretty aggressive in the bubble, then that may tell u to look and see if u are always getting to bubble shortstacked, in which case u may wanna work on getting more chips earlier

however, it could also be low because u are more aggressive going for first and if ur 1/2/3 ratio is 50/25/25, then u shouldn't worry as much about a low +/-

[Moonsugar]

Just a piece of helpful advice: +/- bubble isnt the target you should be shooting for. $/hr brought to you by high ROI should be the goal. If we compare 2 players and 1 just tries to make the top 3 and one tries to maximize earnings then the 2nd player may have a lower +/- bubble % but since he will have more chips when he does make the bubble he will win more money.

I think NewtBuggs had a post that showed a really awesome finish distribution if you want to look for that.

[HesseJam]

Thanks for all the answers.

LARGE sample size means > 5000?

[Hood]

[ QUOTE ]
Thus, the calculation is:

Firsts + Seconds + Thirds / Firsts + Seconds + Thirds + Fourths

You then measure against 75%. But you need a LARGE sample size, because of the multiple variables including bad beats, short stacks, large stacks, good luck, disconnects, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's correct.

I copied the stat (and most of the others) directly from SNG spreadsheet. I can't really comment on it's usefulness.

[JayKon]

[ QUOTE ]
Just a piece of helpful advice: +/- bubble isn't the target you should be shooting for.

[/ QUOTE ]
It isn't.

[ QUOTE ]
$/hr brought to you by high ROI should be the goal.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, yea.

I was (and still am) trying to figure out how useful the stat is in relation to the other stats. Of course the ultimate goal is to make more money.

Also, the two most useful comments were bubble ITM% related to stack size and Bubble % related to finish position. Anyone with further thoughts?

I'm really hoping more people will provide their stat as there isn't enough feedback yet to even get a feel for its usefulness.