Weak Overcard Outs-Clearing

[W. Deranged]

Hey folks,

I was playing some 3/6 kill against some 2+2ers yesterday and had the great satisfaction of making one of those questionable outs clearing raises that works out perfectly and actually did promote my hand to a winner.

Which got me thinking about playing suspect overcards on draw heavy boards and the conditions necessary for making an outs clearing raise with weak overcards.

So I've got some poll questions for y'all. In all of these assume that:

1. SB if a half-thinking but annoying donk who calls down way to much and likes to fold the river a lot.

2. The player immediately to your left (wherever you are) is a solid 2+2er.

Have at it! I recommend everyone vote before reading/posting replies.

Note: #1 is kind of a "warm-up." It's more interesting, though, if the board is only two-tone and you don't have any backdoors.

[Derek in NYC]

These seem very straightforward. #1 and #2 are clear raises given your flush draws and overs. Im surprised to see people saying call with #3. I fold this if the 3-bettor is anything near a decent player.

Edited to add: I just noticed the gutshot here and the fact that this was a 5-handed game. My bad. I'd probably raise the gutshot if I thought I could get the button to fold, otherwise, I call and hope I can get in cheaply.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
T Im surprised to see people saying call with #3. I fold this if the 3-bettor is anything near a decent player.

Edited to add: I just noticed the gutshot here and the fact that this was a 5-handed game. My bad. I'd probably raise the gutshot if I thought I could get the button to fold, otherwise, I call and hope I can get in cheaply.

[/ QUOTE ]

...and so the subtlety emerges...

#1 and #2 are obvious raises in my opinion. I'm surprised how many votes for calls there are for #2. I'd like to see an argument there.

#3 is the interesting one, largely because I think it is very game/player dependent. This is the one I'm really interested in with the poll.

[W. Deranged]

I really would like to here some analyses on hand #2 and #3. Fair amount of divergence of opinion...

[Two_Slick]

[ QUOTE ]
I really would like to here some analyses on hand #2 and #3. Fair amount of divergence of opinion...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I just went back and re-read it and when I voted I missed your description of player #2. I suppose we're raising here expecting him to fold to agression on the river and folding if he comes back at us (if we don't improve).

Against an unknown I think I'm just calling here and folding the turn UI. Is that too weak?

EDIT: I missed the gutshot in #3 too... jeez I'm out of it today. I'm not folding in #3 with the gutshot + overs.

[SeaEagle]

1 = easy raise, just on value.

2 = close between a call and a raise. If you think you can buy the button and get a free turn card, it's a raise, otherwise it's a call.

3 = close between a call and a fold. You don't have much of a hand and can't really expect to win unimproved even if you fold out the button. However you have at least 3 solid outs and are getting 10-1 to continue.

In general, I'm not a big fan of buying outs in a 3-handed pot. You are not going to fold out sb so you're putting in an extra bet in a smallish pot to try to buy two cards from the button. In, say, a 5-way pot, your raise has more value because it can fold out more hands and the bigger pot gives you a better multiplier on your extra bet.

[callmedonnie]

I was a bit torn on hand one because I am confident MP2 will reraise. However, you will likely clear out donk, so call two bets there is no big deal. Definite raise.

Hand two, I am assuming that small blind leading the flop?

Hand three looks like an easy lay down to me.

[dcarlc]

1) I am calling. He basicly called 3 cold in SB, I think he flops a set, maybe has pocket 9's with /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, I don't think you win this hand with out improving.

2) Raise, If 2+2er has big pocket pair or AK-AQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gifyou will know. SB is betting his pair with a draw every time being the annoying Donk that he is.

3) I fold, If button has a hand your got a knife in a gun fight. I would just move on, I don't think it pays for the times the button has a real hand and I think the blind is not going anywhere, don't think he is bluffing into that strength. again he called 3 bets preflop.

[Two_Slick]

I don't think you can raise #3 though. The button will be getting 5 to 1 to call and would be correct to call with many of the hands he would 3-bet. Too many draws for me to fold though. Hand #3 is a tougher spot for sure.

[Derek in NYC]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand three looks like an easy lay down to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This true without the gutshot and backdoor. But on a discounted basis, you've got 3-4 outs to the gutshot, say 2-3 outs to make TPWK, and a backdoor flush draw to the third nut flush which is probably worth 1 out. So you're probably looking at 6-8, which makes it easy to play on. So the only real question in my mind is whether to raise or call, and this depends on opponents. If you can fold the 3-bettor, its a clear raise, because you can buy the button and wont get pushed off hands as easily. If he's going to reraise the flop, then its more of a pickle, b/c you're potentially going to get jammed between the SB and the button. Obviously, folding hands like AQ and KQs are great for you, so there's also some value to raising to clean up outs.

[W. Deranged]

Note there is no backdoor flush draw in hand three, which may be very significant for this hand.

[Two_Slick]

[ QUOTE ]
1) I am calling. He basicly called 3 cold in SB, I think he flops a set, maybe has pocket 9's with , I don't think you win this hand with out improving.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're giving the donk way too much credit for a hand here. I put him on having 2 cards /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Two_Slick]

[ QUOTE ]
However you have at least 3 solid outs and are getting 10-1 to continue.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not to mention your overcards still have a tiny amount of value (maybe .5 or 1 out) + the implied odds when you hit your straight. I'm not folding until I see the turn. I hate getting raised here by the button, but the SB is along to pad the pot probably. To those who voted raise... I don't see anyway you can raise this (what do you do when you get 3-bet by the button?).

[Moneyline]

IMO the flops in these hands are a lot worse than they first appear. No offense meant to OP, but this probably makes them bad candidates to determine what you should typically do with overcards. Anyway, the reason I think they are bad for your hand is because they are as coordinated as a non-monotone flop can get. This makes it much more likely than usual for you to lose when you catch a pair. On flops like this I think you need a much better hand than normal to win at showdown.

This isn't a problem for hand one, because with all your nut outs you will have a much better hand than usual if you catch a good card. In hand 2, however, your draws are far less appealing. Spiking a queen here will win you less than usual because of the coordinated board. Spiking a T or 9 will win you even less because A) you're very unlikely to get paid off by a worse hand with 4 to a straight staring your opponents in the face, and B) you often won't have the best hand when you catch a T. The only real "concealed" draw you have is a rather unlikely backdoor flush.

I think the pot is too big to fold on the flop, but I also think that your draws are too weak to merit a raise because on this board you'll often run into straights, flushes, and suited connectors that flopped 2 pair.

[W. Deranged]

Moneyline...

Good points. FWIW, I picked this flop in particularly because I think it has a lot of interesting things going on. The polls really are not about "what to do with overcards." I'm most interested in how everything (particularly the nature of the players in the pot and board texture) affect the decision.

[Derek in NYC]

Man I must be reading too quick!

[hobbsmann]

Apparently I'm a LAG because I raise all three of these.

[W. Deranged]

1. Hand #2 is pretty clearly a raise here. You have so much equity from the combination of draws here that failing to raise can only hurt. Allowing the TAG behind you to raise is bad. Take control of the hand. Anyone who votes for a call is playing too tight-weak here in my opinion and is not maximizing their chance to win the hand.

#3. This was the hand that I actually played the other night. Many advocate a fold, which isn't bad, but I urge everyone to consider the players involved. The 2+2er may realize the move I'm making but will also realize that his equity against two opponents may be poor and that his odds given the flop raise are slim. Donk in SB will shut down after my raise and may give up the pot to me. All my Qs, 10s, and 9, likely become clean outs if a raise forces button to fold.

Folding is safe here and I actually don't think calling is offensive, but given the reads I think max value is certainly in raising. Short-handed pots like this I like to focus on getting as many hands as I can heads up with the fish, particularly if there is money in the pot dead already.

[Entity]

I raise #1 and #2 (1 is easy, 2 is close), and fold #3.

Rob

[spamuell]

In hand 2, what hand range do you put the TAG on the button who cold-called your CO openraise on?