battle of blinds on bubble

[schwza]

BB had been reasonable/tight.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t790)
Button (t2340)
Hero (t1575)
BB (t3295)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, hero?

[tigerite]

Pushes and it isn't close

[Nicholasp27]

push

u gain 20% of ur stack if u steal...he'll call with &lt;20% of hands if he's being reasonable/tight

i'd feel better about it if he had the 2200 stack, not the 3k stack, but it's still +ev to push, so push it

[wildzer0]

For me, this is an insta-push. I don't have eastbay's calc here so I can't run the numbers, but I think this is pretty clear.

[durron597]

I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

Your stack size is right around the point where UTG folds most hands you are a 60/40 against and calls with hands where are you are 70/30 or worse. And the 300 chips in the pot aren't worth it IMO.

Edit: if UTG's stack and Button's stack were both 1500 or so this is a push. Also if BB's stack and Button's stack were reversed this is a push.

Edit2: if you had 200 fewer chips also it is a push. I think all the details are exactly unfavorable enough to make it not a push.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

Your stack size is right around the point where UTG folds most hands you are a 60/40 against and calls with hands where are you are 70/30 or worse. And the 300 chips in the pot aren't worth it IMO.

Edit: if UTG's stack and Button's stack were both 1500 or so this is a push. Also if BB's stack and Button's stack were reversed this is a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

[SammyKid11]

Well, I ran this through SnGPT and it came out with exactly what Durron said...very close but a push here is slightly -EV. All about the short stack and his level of danger.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I ran this through SnGPT and it came out with exactly what Durron said...very close but a push here is slightly -EV. All about the short stack and his level of danger.

[/ QUOTE ]

Woot @ gut instinct!

I really should buy SnGPT though.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I ran this through SnGPT and it came out with exactly what Durron said...very close but a push here is slightly -EV. All about the short stack and his level of danger.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's a pretty ridiculous statement to drop without saying villain's calling range.

[Nicholasp27]

is it -ev for any calling range of opp? or only for certain calling ranges?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
is it -ev for any calling range of opp? or only for certain calling ranges?

[/ QUOTE ]

i promise it's not -EV for the range of "villain folds everything."

[Nicholasp27]

well, yeah

but i'm more interested in which ranges...cause he said 'slightly negative' which makes me think most ranges may be slightly positive

[rvg72]

I'd push that every time against any reasonably tight BB.

I would bet his calling range is extremely tight here - high pocket pairs or A with good kicker... I think you take those 300 chips over 95% of the time against this guy making this an any 2 push.

But then again some well respected SNG'ers have said fold on this thread so don't take my word for it...

rvg

[schwza]

as a seperate question, what would your calling range be? assume i've been average in terms of aggressiveness.

i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ, maybe more. villain is deep enough that he can call, lose, and still be comfortably ahead of the shorty.

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran this through Eastbay's program using those calling ranges (which I think Durron was right on the money about) and it shows this as being a clear push at +0.9%. 32o is also a push with a +0.5% so according to ICM this is an any 2 push.

rvg

[rvg72]

I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

I ran this through Eastbay's program using those calling ranges (which I think Durron was right on the money about) and it shows this as being a clear push at +0.9%. 32o is also a push with a +0.5% so according to ICM this is an any 2 push.

rvg

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ, maybe more. villain is deep enough that he can call, lose, and still be comfortably ahead of the shorty.

[/ QUOTE ]

My blind defense is a lot weaker than my blind stealing right now but what you listed was right about where I would draw the line.

rvg

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ, maybe more. villain is deep enough that he can call, lose, and still be comfortably ahead of the shorty.

[/ QUOTE ]

My blind defense is a lot weaker than my blind stealing right now but what you listed was right about where I would draw the line.

rvg

[/ QUOTE ]

did you run sngpt for that range? also, what do you think an average villain's range will be there? i'd guess a little looser, but i'm not sure.

[rvg72]

Well SNGPT doesn't give you ranges - it does give you templates but really the ranges that people call with are based on so many factors so really it is experience that tells you what their range might be in any given scenario. SNGPT lets you analyze results based on the ranges you determine for each player.

I'd say the average tight player goes with that range while a loose player would open it up considerably. Any pair, any ace, most kings and probably any 2 face cards.

rvg

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Well SNGPT doesn't give you ranges - it does give you templates but really the ranges that people call with are based on so many factors so really it is experience that tells you what their range might be in any given scenario. SNGPT lets you analyze results based on the ranges you determine for each player.

I'd say the average tight player goes with that range while a loose player would open it up considerably. Any pair, any ace, most kings and probably any 2 face cards.

rvg

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe some confusion.... i was asking if you ran sngpt for whether it's correct to push a6 against this range:

[ QUOTE ]
i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ,

[/ QUOTE ]

and then a seperate question of what range an average BB will have.

[durron597]

Those were examples. The BB probably calls with A7, KT, QJ, 55... that's getting towards the range. I'm not exactly sure.

[grandgnu]

I push, please read HOH-2 and return when you are ready. Your software will not save you. Folding any Ace in the small blind at that point instead of pushing is a mistake unless the UTG player only had enough to be all-in on the next hand. You have twice as many chips as he does, but that can change very quickly. I've seen many short-stacks come back to win from the bubble.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I push, please read HOH-2 and return when you are ready. Your software will not save you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Prick. That aside:

[ QUOTE ]
Folding any Ace in the small blind at that point instead of pushing is a mistake unless the UTG player only had enough to be all-in on the next hand. You have twice as many chips as he does, but that can change very quickly. I've seen many short-stacks come back to win from the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you even pay attention to stack sizes at all? Nearly the entire BB's calling range dominates you, and your M here is over 6. You don't need this pot. There will be better spots. I would rather raise UTG with the 2nd place stack in the BB with A6o than here.

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]

maybe some confusion.... i was asking if you ran sngpt for whether it's correct to push a6 against this range:

and then a seperate question of what range an average BB will have.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok - yes I used SNG power tools for the calculations to confirm my initial thoughts and when I said "I'd say the average tight player goes with that range while a loose player would open it up considerably. Any pair, any ace, most kings and probably any 2 face cards." replace goes with calls. I was referring to what they would be calling with from the BB.

rvg

[schwza]

cool, thanks.

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I push, please read HOH-2 and return when you are ready. Your software will not save you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Prick. That aside:

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. I would push this with any 2 against a tight player in this situation for the reasons I mentioned but I also appreciate other opinions and the reasoning behind them, like Durron's.

rvg

[grandgnu]

Before HOH-2 I was a consistant bubble finisher. After HOH-2 I have been coming from behind as a short-stack on the bubble to win a lot of these sit n' go's.

I'm snagging a lot of 1st and 2nd's now, instead of 4th's and 5th's. The proof is in the pudding. You're welcome.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Before HOH-2 I was a consistant bubble finisher. After HOH-2 I have been coming from behind as a short-stack on the bubble to win a lot of these sit n' go's.

I'm snagging a lot of 1st and 2nd's now, instead of 4th's and 5th's. The proof is in the pudding. You're welcome.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have always tended towards first in my finishes. I think I play the bubble quite well thank you.

This is at best a slightly positive EV push. It is definitely not "clear".

And do you have to phrase every thing you say in the most condescending way possible?

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Before HOH-2 I was a consistant bubble finisher. After HOH-2 I have been coming from behind as a short-stack on the bubble to win a lot of these sit n' go's.

I'm snagging a lot of 1st and 2nd's now, instead of 4th's and 5th's. The proof is in the pudding. You're welcome.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have always tended towards first in my finishes. I think I play the bubble quite well thank you.

This is at best a slightly positive EV push. It is definitely not "clear".

And do you have to phrase every thing you say in the most condescending way possible?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, bad habit I picked up in these forums with all the elitists running around. And, um, "it's not even close, do you see why?" /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[bigt439]

I don't know why someone said that it was -ev given a certain range, because if you use any of the preset ranges, even maniac gives you a slightly +EV. Considering that he is not alway a maniac, it becomes even more +EV (proportionate to what read you have on him). Given that I can not see folding this. Your worst case scenario is +EV (granted very slightly) and the other scenarios are more +EV. To me this seems like as clear a push as any.

[tigerite]

Does it not have to be greater than 0.5% EV from the SB to be profitable though?

PS This is a clear push by the KS chart. So even if you threw your cards face up he'd be wrong to call

[valenzuela]

WTF is M?? Plz dont tell em to buy the book.

[Nicholasp27]

M=your stack divided by (bb+sb+antes)

if u have M&lt;5, then u are in the red zone, 5-10 is orange zone, 10-20 is yellow zone and 20+ is green zone...he talks about how u can play differently depending upon what zone u are in, etc

those 5/10/20 are inflection points

he also says to multiply M by % of people left if &lt;10 at table to get 'effective M' but that won't apply in sngs

otherwise if u have 5k chips with 4 left on table and 100/200 blinds, ur effective M would only be 6.67, which is too low for having 5k chips on the bubble in an 8k chip sng

so just use normal M, which is basically how many times around the table u can last before busting from blinds/antes

[Jay36489]

It doesnt calculate what range BB will have. YOu estimate that and you can see whether a certain push is +EV, or you can see what range you can push that are +EV above a minimum, which is default at .5%.

The numbers for your hand"

If villian calls top 20% which is 33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+
Your range to push which is +.5% EV or greater is
Push hands: 55+,A9o+,A8s+ (11%)

Villian calls w/ top 15% 33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+
Push hands: 44+,A7o+,A3s+,KQo,KTs+,QTs+,JTs (17%)

Villian calls w/ top 10% 55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs
Push hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,92+,82+,73o+,72s+,62+,52+, 43o,42s+,32s (97%)

You mentioed

[ QUOTE ]
i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ, maybe more. villain is deep enough that he can call, lose, and still be comfortably ahead of the shorty.

[/ QUOTE ]

77 is top 9% K-S
A8o is top 16% K-S
KQo is top 20% K-S

so this estimate of range is all over. Basically you don't need that 300, and if you can't put villian on a really tight range, you can not push here.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this. You can't put enough pressure on the BB to make him fold a hand like A9, KQ, or 77. Plus UTG is going to be very desperate very soon.

Your stack size is right around the point where UTG folds most hands you are a 60/40 against and calls with hands where are you are 70/30 or worse. And the 300 chips in the pot aren't worth it IMO.

Edit: if UTG's stack and Button's stack were both 1500 or so this is a push. Also if BB's stack and Button's stack were reversed this is a push.

Edit2: if you had 200 fewer chips also it is a push. I think all the details are exactly unfavorable enough to make it not a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Durron, very good analysis. You could also add in that if the blinds were bigger, say 150/300, this is also now +EV. This is just another example of how complex this game can be, so many minor variations, and it changes the whole landscape.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+

[/ QUOTE ]

This is about what I was thinking.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesnt calculate what range BB will have

[/ QUOTE ]

right.... b/c it would need to be psychic.

[ QUOTE ]
or you can see what range you can push that are +EV above a minimum, which is default at .5%.


[/ QUOTE ]

why isn't the default 0%? if pushing is better than folding by $0.000001, i want to push. (in fact, i would give up a tiny bit of equity b/c of hourly rate considerations. also pushing is fun.)

[ QUOTE ]
77 is top 9% K-S
A8o is top 16% K-S
KQo is top 20% K-S

so this estimate of range is all over. Basically you don't need that 300, and if you can't put villian on a really tight range, you can not push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is k-s? just because that range doesn't correspond with some hand chart doesn't make it not true. so i don't care if you think it's "all over the place."

[Jay36489]

In that case its a VERY marginal push of +.1% EV. No reason to stick your neck out here.

[Nicholasp27]

if pushing is better by .000001, then you shouldn't wanna push, as you can pick a better place to increase your ev...u should be better than your opps...and you may be mistaken on ur opps' calling range

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
In that case its a VERY marginal push of +.1% EV. No reason to stick your neck out here.

[/ QUOTE ]

why should we have a bias towards folding? if we believe it's +.1% we should obviously push. ICM already takes into account the fact that bubbling is bad.

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]

77 is top 9% K-S
A8o is top 16% K-S
KQo is top 20% K-S


[/ QUOTE ]

KQo is 89.6% percentile of starting hands heads up
A8o is 88.4% percentile of starting hands heads up
77 is 96.5% percentile of starting hands heads up

so it is fair that they be grouped together.

Top 12% hand (heads-up) would include:

66+,A7s+,A9o+,KTs+,KQo

rvg

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

why should we have a bias towards folding? if we believe it's +.1% we should obviously push. ICM already takes into account the fact that bubbling is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

ICM doesn't take skill edge into account. Why gamble for +.1% EV when it's such a small increase and we think we will have higher EV situations later?

[Jay36489]

[ QUOTE ]
why isn't the default 0%? if pushing is better than folding by $0.000001, i want to push. (in fact, i would give up a tiny bit of equity b/c of hourly rate considerations. also pushing is fun.)

[/ QUOTE ]

You basically want to take coinflips at this point? Hourly rate? The bubble will probably last no more then 10 mins and you are content to coinflip right now to save yourself 10 mins? If thats your style, more power to ya. Gambooool it up man.
[ QUOTE ]

what is k-s? just because that range doesn't correspond with some hand chart doesn't make it not true. so i don't care if you think it's "all over the place."

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. You are correct in that your opponents will not be playing perfect poker and their ranges will be all over the place. But you should know what the K-S chart (http://www.decf.berkeley.edu/~chubukov/rankings.html) is.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
if pushing is better by .000001, then you shouldn't wanna push, as you can pick a better place to increase your ev...u should be better than your opps...and you may be mistaken on ur opps' calling range

[/ QUOTE ]

it's true i may be mistaken, but we don't know which way i'm mistaken.

as i said in another post, one reason passing on a +EV edge is bad is that taking the edge and busting allows you to start another STT right way, which is +EV.

good point about being able to a slightly more +EV situation later. not sure which is more important.

[Jay36489]

Where do you get those rankings? I took the K-S chart, imported it into excel, then ran the 169 hands and divided by their position.

[Jay36489]

People were talking about taking slightly +EV situations early, not on the bubble. Saving yourself 50 mins is a lot different then saving yourself a max 10 mins, but probably a lot less (more like 3)...

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

what is k-s? just because that range doesn't correspond with some hand chart doesn't make it not true. so i don't care if you think it's "all over the place."

[/ QUOTE ]

K-S = Karlson-Sklansky. It's a list of hands sorted in order of how large a stack it would be profitable for you to push with with your cards face up if it is folded to you on either the button or the SB, I can't remember. The original poster should note that this is different than what you're looking for in a calling hand against somebody who could be pushing a broad range. AKs is the third highest ranked K-S hand, but the reason that it outperforms QQ in that test is that you'll get called by a lot more hands that are only slightly ahead, as opposed to QQ which will be called more rarely but only when it's a total dog. By contrast, if you're deciding to call against an opponent pushing any two, you'd clearly much rather have QQ than AK, so it's not necessarily a good idea to take these things and try and apply them where they don't belong.

[grandgnu]

3rd place money is pointless, bubble lack of money is pointless. Play to win, there are two folds behind you, your hand is VERY strong in this spot, I push everytime. Do you think you'll catch as strong a hand in the next three to four hands when the blind hits you again?

this isn't the time to play tight. If you run into a stronger hand, it happens, what can ya do?

Heads-up I pushed with 4/4 and ran into A/3 and he caught an Ace. Very next hand I had J/J and pushed against A/Q suited and he hit a Queen and I was out in 2nd. Even as a slight favorite I lost two hands in a row and went away (after securing the chip lead with A/K vs. K/7).

You can't be afraid to push with these hands, or you'll be bubbling a lot.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

77 is top 9% K-S
A8o is top 16% K-S
KQo is top 20% K-S


[/ QUOTE ]

KQo is 89.6% percentile of starting hands heads up
A8o is 88.4% percentile of starting hands heads up
77 is 96.5% percentile of starting hands heads up

so it is fair that they be grouped together.

Top 12% hand (heads-up) would include:

66+,A7s+,A9o+,KTs+,KQo

rvg

[/ QUOTE ]

well, BB's range is really anybody's guess. it may be A8+, K2+,QJs. but what it should be is something like "hands that do well against a top 40% hand" or "hands that do well against a top 80% hand," or something like that, depending on BB's perceptions of us.

using hand rankings based on how they stand up to against a random hand (as i think rvg does) isn't really right because 66 looks like a frickin' champion. the problem is that villain knows hero is not likely to push 34o, which is where 66 really shines over a hand like KQ. so smallish pairs are not as good for calling pushes as a random-hand chart says they are.

the same holds true for K-S. K-S ranks 33 above KQ, KTs, and A7o. if villain calls with 33 i'm floored, but if he calls with any of the other three i'm not particularly surprised. do you think 33 is more likely to call than KQ? so it makes sense that a competent villain's calling range will be "all over the place" given according to either hand-value chart.

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]

KQo is 89.6% percentile of starting hands heads up
A8o is 88.4% percentile of starting hands heads up
77 is 96.5% percentile of starting hands heads up

using hand rankings based on how they stand up to against a random hand (as i think rvg does) isn't really right because 66 looks like a frickin' champion.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct - those percentile numbers are based on results vs random hands so I should have mentioned that. My point there was just to show that the grouping of those hands together in a call range was reasonable.

rvg

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd be calling hands like 77, A8, KQ,

[/ QUOTE ]

i was just curious, so i ran some pokerstove numbers to see what kinds of hands do well against that range.

A6o = 31.4%
K9o = 31.5%
AJo = 46.1%
AJs = 50.8%