Debate I had with a friend, bet the turn or not?

[phillydilly]

20+2 sit n go
level 1, 10/15 blinds
dealt AA in MP,
one limper, I raise to 50, two callers,
flop comes AQ8, two diamonds,
first guy bets 35 into a pot of 175, i raise to 100, not wanting to completely get rid of him, other guy folds,
turn is 8, giving me a boat, he checks and now i'm sure he's on a flush draw, so I check hoping he'll hit his draw,
river brings the third diamond and he goes all in, i call and knock him out

his arguement
checking the turn, there is no card that will let him beat me, and i can take his whole stack if a diamond hits, and the check may induce a bluff to take his stack again

my arguement
gotta bet the turn, if only 1/4 to 1/3 the pot, if he misses the flush draw, you might not get any more out of him, if he hits, you prolly will get his whole stack,


well? what do you guys think?

[Nicholasp27]

i'd bet, giving him pot odds to go for the flush draw so he'll bet and u'll be almost guaranteed to get that money

if he misses, he won't push/call anyway and if he hits, u got all his money regardless

so the only thing u can really change is getting money on the turn, which a bet that still gives him odds will do

Yeah I would definitely bet here

[JayKon]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I would definitely bet here

[/ QUOTE ]

How much?

Why?

[bluefeet]

I like the 1/3 - 1/2 bet for two reasons. If he is drawing, he certainly isn't going anywhere anyways. It might indeed be the last opportunity for you to get more of his chips. Secondly, I think a significantly reduced turn bet (in relation to the flop action) can be equally - if not more effective than checking, in portraying weakness to villian.

Edit: Another thing...your read could be wrong. He might already have a hand. He could be just assuming a check/call posture, unsure where he stands. If this was the case, you'd want to be value betting both the turn & river.

[mjm]

you've got to bet the turn it's free money. If he misses the draw you definetly won't get anything on the river. I agree with 1/4 - 1/3 of pot giving him the implied odds to call. I think 1/2 pot is risky, he may well walk away from his flush draw.

[schwza]

checking the turn sucks, especially if you believe villain has a draw. if you miss out on stacking Ax or 8x by that check, you'll regret it.