Right Move

[Ragnarok]

First post, so if I get something wrong, let me know.

Pokerstars 10+1. TheDroid8 plays loose - no other reads.

Should I have called all in when near top of chip lead.

Pretty sure this is a good play, but lost last couple of stars SNG and need to check my sanity. Thinking was

pot odds 1.5
Outs = 14 (including nut flush)
Villian = flopped a set?

PokerStars Game #2149790836: Tournament #10305813, Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2005/07/20 - 22:27:19 (ET)
Table '10305813 1' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: AcesN88 (4980 in chips)
Seat 4: LBW6 (1825 in chips)
Seat 5: unluckyfool (1415 in chips)
Seat 7: TheDroid8 (1060 in chips)
Seat 8: frogviking (2070 in chips)
Seat 9: jhkues (2150 in chips)
AcesN88: posts small blind 25
LBW6: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jhkues [Ad Qh]
unluckyfool: folds
TheDroid8: raises 150 to 200
frogviking: folds
jhkues: calls 200
AcesN88: folds
LBW6: folds
*** FLOP *** [7d 9d 4d]
TheDroid8: bets 860 and is all-in
jhkues: calls 860
*** TURN *** [7d 9d 4d] [Ks]
*** RIVER *** [7d 9d 4d Ks] [9s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TheDroid8: shows [8h 8d] (two pair, Nines and Eights)
jhkues: shows [Ad Qh] (a pair of Nines)
TheDroid8 collected 2195 from pot
TheDroid8 said, "phhhhhhhhhheeeeeeeeew"

[mlagoo]

i reraise preflop, but, having not reraised, would call the flop push.

[bluefeet]

There will be others that disagree, but I would fold PF. Let me ask you this: If shortie open-pushed PF would you call? I most certainly wouldn't. It's only L3 and you have a very healthy stack. I personally wouldn't put 1/2 my stack at risk at this point in the game. For this same reason, I don't feel a need to call a 4x with this hand either. Shortie will be looking at at least a flop pot equal to 1/2 his stack (assuming no one else calls). You will more than likely be facing an all-in decision on some street. If you aren't willing to put him in PF (which I'm not), then don't even make the call putting yourself in these situations.

Ps. There are two healthy stack behind you in the blinds. Either of which could wake up to a real hand. Your reluctance to put shortie in, sets up a great opportunity for big stack to come over the top chasing you out.

[maddog2030]

This is a no brainer. At this level you're almost always going to be shown a pair or a flush draw, and you're ahead of both.

[Ragnarok]

You make a good point. I would not have called with a PF push. I think the Diamonds blinded me.

BTW, I found Bisonbisons converter. Here is the hand converted. Next time I will do this first.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t4980)
BB (t1825)
UTG (t1415)
MP (t1060)
CO (t2070)
Hero (t2150)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to t200</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t200, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t475) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets t860 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t860.

Turn: (t2195) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2195) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2195

[SammyKid11]

Mistake number one is calling pre-flop with AQo facing a pre-flop raise with 400 BB's in your stack. Problem with this play is...a) you don't need the action, b) 9 times out of 10 you're a coin flip at best, c) it takes you directly to...

Mistake number two...which is calling the all-in bet with absolutely nothing except the flush draw. Now, when you have a flush draw + a pair, possibly...or when you have a flush draw + an open-ended str8 draw (or sometimes gutshot), fine. But with nothing but the straight draw, you've just made a bet getting 1.5-to-1 odds on a draw which you're about 2.2-to-1 to make. Don't do it.

Anyway...yeah, don't do it.

Oh, and by the way...don't do it.

[SammyKid11]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a no brainer. At this level you're almost always going to be shown a pair or a flush draw, and you're ahead of both.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are absolutely not ahead of both. On the flop, against the pair of 8's, our hero was about 48-52. Those odds are made worse if villain were to show 99, 77, or 44 (which isn't at all out of the realm of possibility given his all-in play at the sight of 3 diamonds). Then there's the possibility that he's already got the flush.

You're behind everything villain MAY have except a lower flush draw...which I SUPPOSE could be KdQx or KxQd. But that's the only thing even a fairly aggressive villain is raising with that you're currently ahead of.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
i reraise preflop, but, having not reraised, would call the flop push.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
You are absolutely not ahead of both.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you are.

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, against the pair of 8's, our hero was about 48-52.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is about the strongest hand I'd expect to see barring trips.

Also note this is a pair AND a flush draw.

[ QUOTE ]
You're behind everything villain MAY have except a lower flush draw...which I SUPPOSE could be KdQx or KxQd. But that's the only thing even a fairly aggressive villain is raising with that you're currently ahead of.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're overestimating the opponents at this level. I'd expect to a see a villian at this level to push any diamond he would've raised with. And this is why I think it makes the call a no brainer.

[bluefeet]

i think you're confused....villian had the 88. hero had AQo.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]

i think you're confused....villian had the 88. hero had AQo.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain technically has a pair and a (lower) flush draw. the diamond being removed from the deck hurts hero a little. not sure if that's what the dude meant.

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you're confused....villian had the 88. hero had AQo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Confused where? A 14 out draw is slightly ahead against a pair. You're absolutely crushing a flush draw, which is the most likely hand to be making a move in this situation.

For the opponents particular 88 hand, you are slightly behind because he has both a pair and a flush draw. Your pot odds are still plenty good enough to call.

[45suited]

I see nothing wrong with the way the hand was played, including the pre-flop call. Against some opponents, I'd re-raise (very loose, very aggressive opponents) but calling seems fine with your stack and those blinds.

Calling the flop push is mandatory. Folding would have been horrible.

[SammyKid11]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are absolutely not ahead of both.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you're really not. Do the math or go to a Poker Odds Calculator -- Hero is most definitely behind.

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, against the pair of 8's, our hero was about 48-52.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is about the strongest hand I'd expect to see barring trips.

Also note this is a pair AND a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, great...so villain also had a lower flush draw. That hurts Hero and has little bearing on why he's behind. And how can you possibly say this is the strongest hand you'd expect to be shown? How is it not reasonable that villain already has a set or a flush? Answer...it's perfectly reasonable, but you're not considering that possibility.

[ QUOTE ]
You're behind everything villain MAY have except a lower flush draw...which I SUPPOSE could be KdQx or KxQd. But that's the only thing even a fairly aggressive villain is raising with that you're currently ahead of.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're overestimating the opponents at this level. I'd expect to a see a villian at this level to push any diamond he would've raised with. And this is why I think it makes the call a no brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, then I believe you're underestimating villains generally and you're also misunderstanding where Hero is in this particular hand. He's a dog against EVERYTHING he could be up against EXCEPT a lower flush draw. He's a significant dog if he's up against something better than one pair.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, then I believe you're underestimating villains generally and you're also misunderstanding where Hero is in this particular hand. He's a dog against EVERYTHING he could be up against EXCEPT a lower flush draw. He's a significant dog if he's up against something better than one pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is ridiculous. Villain is short and could be pulling a stop-n-go. It's actually possible that hero has the better hand at this point. Plus he has two overs and the nut flush draw. And getting around 3:2 to call. Folding would be atrocious.

[SammyKid11]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think you're confused....villian had the 88. hero had AQo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Confused where? A 14 out draw is slightly ahead against a pair. You're absolutely crushing a flush draw, which is the most likely hand to be making a move in this situation.

For the opponents particular 88 hand, you are slightly behind because he has both a pair and a flush draw. Your pot odds are still plenty good enough to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay...but seriously, the problem with that logic is that you're over-valuing your outs. If villain has a set, you have 9 outs and then on the turn (assuming you're not already dead), he has a 10 out redraw. If villain already has the flush, you have 7 outs. You may not believe those things to be likely, but they have to be considered.

Sorry that this is SSHE logic, but what if you counted those outs at a more reasonable 11? Then you're ~ 1.7-to-1 to make the best hand, and ~ 1.5-to-1 from the pot on the call (my math is somewhat sketchy considering I'm doing other things and don't have charts or a calculator in front of me).

Anyway...does this not seem like a fold if you estimate your outs in a way that recognizes they might not all be good?

[azalin]

[ QUOTE ]
I see nothing wrong with the way the hand was played, including the pre-flop call. Against some opponents, I'd re-raise (very loose, very aggressive opponents) but calling seems fine with your stack and those blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no reason to play AQo against a raise in the 3rd level of a SnG. Particularly one with blind structures that are slow.

[ QUOTE ]

Calling the flop push is mandatory. Folding would have been horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you like putting all of your money when you dont need or have the odds to, then whatever floats your boat. I was almost hoping you were going to reply back because you forgot to add your &lt;/sarcasm&gt; tag.

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
No, you're really not. Do the math or go to a Poker Odds Calculator -- Hero is most definitely behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>pokenum -h ah qd - tc th -- 7d 9d 4d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9d 7d 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qd Ah 510 51.52 480 48.48 0 0.00 0.515
Tc Th 480 48.48 510 51.52 0 0.00 0.485</pre><hr />

[ QUOTE ]
How is it not reasonable that villain already has a set or a flush? Answer...it's perfectly reasonable, but you're not considering that possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already mentioned the set possibility earlier. The flush is a smaller possibility since it will probably not be played this way, even by a total chimp.

[ QUOTE ]
He's a dog against EVERYTHING he could be up against EXCEPT a lower flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or a pair. And I think these are going to be what you see nearly every time.

Even when villian has this pair with a flush draw its still a very good call.

[ QUOTE ]
He's a significant dog if he's up against something better than one pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty unlikely. The time's you run into this will more than be made up for by the smaller flush draws pushing.

[SammyKid11]

Well, then you and I are going to have to agree to disagree. I understand that against one pair with no diamonds in it Hero is a very slight favorite.

However, considering the other possibilities (which I guess I consider more real than you do), I'm still liking the way I'm counting outs/seeing this as a -chipEV call. Especially assuming that Hero is a better player than the majority of his opponents, I think even if the outs align and he's barely chip-justified in calling, he's -$EV in doing so...those chips will be put to better use in all his +$EV FE situations later in the tournament that others won't take advantage of.

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
You may not believe those things to be likely, but they have to be considered.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're about a 28% dog if he has trips. Realize this will be rare so while you will be a significant dog, you won't be most of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway...does this not seem like a fold if you estimate your outs in a way that recognizes they might not all be good?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any time it's likely one of your outs is taken in this situation (he has an ace or queen), you're probably already ahead in the hand so you no longer need them.

I'd do the math to show the equity you have in this hand, but I'm at work and would need some PokerStove results to do it.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no reason to play AQo against a raise in the 3rd level of a SnG. Particularly one with blind structures that are slow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling with AQo for 9% of your stack six handed and playing the hand in position is fine.

[ QUOTE ]
If you like putting all of your money when you dont need or have the odds to, then whatever floats your boat. I was almost hoping you were going to reply back because you forgot to add your &lt;/sarcasm&gt; tag.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero was getting 1.55:1 to call on the flop push. A huge overlay when you consider the hand that he was up against. Are you saying that if you saw villain's hand face up that you would not make this call here with the nut flush draw and two overcards?

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
However, considering the other possibilities (which I guess I consider more real than you do), I'm still liking the way I'm counting outs/seeing this as a -chipEV call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me put it this way: everything in the coinflip department is an obvious call because of the existing pot.

Now the only question is how often he is a dog versus how often he is far ahead. To be an overall coinflip between a dog and a favorite, he needs to be 80% ahead around 40% of the time he's not a coinflip (this is the case when he faces a flush draw). In other words, he can be a 28% dog 60% of the time and still be a coinflip on average (when he faces two pair or better).

He's not going to be going into this hand a huge dog 60% of the time that he's not a coinflip. Being the dog is much harder to do than being the solid favorite here, especially at this level. And these numbers are only going for a coinflip, which gives you a overlay of 10% since you only need to be a 40% favorite to make a neutral chipEV call.

[ QUOTE ]
Especially assuming that Hero is a better player than the majority of his opponents, I think even if the outs align and he's barely chip-justified in calling, he's -$EV in doing so...those chips will be put to better use in all his +$EV FE situations later in the tournament that others won't take advantage of.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's close enough for that to be a factor. In fact I think this is reducing his edge over the field by folding here at this level.

[maddog2030]

Also, doing a quick ICM of the situation, you only need a +3% extra chipEV edge to make this a breakeven tournament call according to ICM, or 43%. So with the calculations above and the range your opponent is probably on, this is still a bad fold $EV wise.