Commerce 9/18: 77 [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

jason_t

07-21-2005, 07:25 AM

First hand at table. No read on villain.

Preflop: I am BB with 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG+2 limps, Button raises, I call.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
I check, UTG+2 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
I bet, UTG+2 folds, Button calls.

River: (5.16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
I bet, Button raises, I....

toss

07-21-2005, 07:29 AM

I don't think villain hit his straight. If he had QJ he'd usually bet the flop, but I don't know him. Did he river an 8? Nevertheless I'd fold because his river bet doesn't make much sense to me. Is this a weak fold?

Edit: Maybe villain is a weak player and has 88?

flytrap

07-21-2005, 07:33 AM

If he's bluffing, I would think he'd raise the turn instead, when he still has a chance to improve. He will know you're psychologically involved in the hand by the river, so raising you there likely means you are beat. The pot isn't really that big, so I just fold and mutter about my draw missing or something. Also, he could have a big hand on the flop, people that play live often like to get cute with their big hands, even stuff like an overpair that is pretty vulnerable.
I think the better play is to just check and call, as it's likely you're ahead, but probably won't get called by a worse hand. He might call with AK, but your bet on the river definately has -ev. And he's not folding anything better.
By checking he might bet his ak, or whatever hand he may have, and you lose only 1 bet if behind, and gain a bet if ahead.

Jake (The Snake)

07-21-2005, 07:35 AM

It's hard to tell without a read but I think you could have check called the river to induce a bluff. He could call with overcards but it's probably unlikely. Besides that, there are very few hands he might call you with that you beat. Maybe a small pp but then he might not raise preflop. I doubt you are getting a better hand to fold. Getting raised leaves you with a tough spot.

As played, I fold because QJ, 88, and other FPS hands make sense here. Pot isn't very big.

thejameser

07-21-2005, 08:42 AM

i call. you are most probably beat. if it was online to an unknown i may call but would likely fold. live(ESPECIALLY the first hand), i call just to create a bit of a loose impression and the illusion of action. it may cost you one more bet now but it may pay off in your ability to trap mr. button or another observant opponent later in the session. you may play looser than i do so this is not as big a factor or there may not be many "thinking" players in the game; if that is the case, save the BB and fold. of course i am responding in the context of the texture of the live games inwhich i play. yours may be different and may require a different strategy, so adjust accordingly.

sy_or_bust

07-21-2005, 08:55 AM

The river bet is good. I agree with not wanting to fold your first hand on the river in this spot, but I think you're beat to QJ or the rare set. In any case, you need to catch a pure bluff almost 15% of the time here, a figure I suspect you may approach but likely not enough to be +EV. I'd decide on my desired table image right there and make the appropriate play.

W. Deranged

07-21-2005, 09:28 AM

Add AA to the list of FPS hands...

Getting 8 to 1 or so and beating only a pure bluff raise, I think a fold is in order. This may be one of those hands where it becomes clear you should have called two orbits later, but with no read at all I just don't think this is 11% or better to be a bluff here on average (though I've never played in California!)

I'd be very wary of folding my next hand to a river raise. You may need to do a little image building following this fold, but this situation is bad enough that I think the cost of the image building will be less than the cost of the bet here.

cnfuzzd

07-21-2005, 09:33 AM

something no one has mentioned is that if he IS bluffing, you want to encourage him to do so more later in the session, rather than pick it off in this particular situation...

peace

john nickle

Jake (The Snake)

07-21-2005, 09:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]

The river bet is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not convinced of this. I did my own EV analysis for this hand with what I thought were generously skewed numbers towards betting and found that check/calling was slightly preferable. What percent of the time do you think villain will:

a. fold
b. call with a better hand
c. call with a worse hand
d. raise

SippinSoma

07-21-2005, 10:59 AM

Remind myself that I have 3rd pair and fold. Button's range of hands of wide. What hands improve to second best on that river? Does AK raise this river? Oh yeah, the pot is small. I think your only hope here is that your opponent is capable of 3rd-level thinking here with overcards.

SippinSoma

07-21-2005, 11:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
something no one has mentioned is that if he IS bluffing, you want to encourage him to do so more later in the session, rather than pick it off in this particular situation...

peace

john nickle

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this.

BigEndian

07-21-2005, 11:02 AM

Is the player older, younger, male, female? I think I'm only inclined to call this if it's a younger player who might raise bluff the river. I'd muck against everyone else.

Strange hand. I'm tempted to call the river just to see what they raise PF and check this lame flop with. But I really suspect you are up against a weakly played 88.

- Jim

SoSo

07-21-2005, 11:11 AM

surely u want as cheaper showdown as possible in this situation, so i think the turn bet achieves nothing. if your betting since you think your hand is good i would try for a c/r as it will isolate the button, check/call or bet/fold the river.

OnkelHotte

07-21-2005, 11:20 AM

to avoid that trouble I'd check/call the river here!

krishanleong

07-21-2005, 11:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
to avoid that trouble I'd check/call the river here!

[/ QUOTE ]

check calling really blows unless you don't think you'll get a call from ace high. Maybe I play too much shorthand but I bet here every time.

folding to the raise is also good.

Krishan

BigEndian

07-21-2005, 11:26 AM

This is a pretty easy river bet. Checking is silly.

- Jim

W. Deranged

07-21-2005, 11:32 AM

sy_or_bust

07-21-2005, 11:32 AM

This is silly. The turn bet is the only sure street of the hand, hoping to win the pot immediately or be called by Button's overcards.

As for the river, I imagine Button making weak calls/raises (they are somewhat analagous - some types prefer to risk an extra BB for fold equity, some will simply call). I think some A-high hands will make weak calls/raises, and lesser hands may decide to bluff-raise some small portion of the time. Nines and Tens aren't in play, and, though possible, this is a horrible way to play an overpair by Button. And QJ probably shouldn't play this way, but might. So my range for Button's better hands is QJ/Overpair, with some small # of AT/A8 hands. My range for Button's worse calling hands is 55-66, AJ+. So I'm going to value bet the river. The raise is very suspicious and I think calling is OK, even if folding may be better.

As for the "pick him off later" strategy, I certainly prefer not to encourage my opponents to bluff-raise my thin value bets on the river, but maybe it's just me.

cold_cash

07-21-2005, 11:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy river bet. Checking is silly.

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Because AK, etc., will call?

(And I would fold to the raise, because with this action I think you're going to see 99 and TT lots and lots.)

Entity

07-21-2005, 11:36 AM

The river seems like an easy bet-fold to me.

Rob

BigEndian

07-21-2005, 11:46 AM

If they would check the flop, I don't know if they'll call. On a look-up they might. But I bet also because if I'm not called I don't have to show my cards and the danger of being beaten here when the action is to me on the river is very small.

- Jim

sfer

07-21-2005, 11:49 AM

private joker

07-21-2005, 12:02 PM

I'd fold. Knowing the Commerce 9/18, this guy is NOT expecting you to lay down. He just wants one more BB because he knows he has the best hand. So few people bet/fold the river that he'll be surprised when you do. Your sevens are no good.

Sarge85

07-21-2005, 12:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
to avoid that trouble I'd check/call the river here!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really really bad advice.

The bet is standard.

What to do next - is tricky.

This isn't a scare card that fell, so there isn't really anything to bluff with.

I'd pay it off, knowing I'm beat - but also to guague either the FPS factor, or the Weak Tightness of this opponent.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BWebb

07-21-2005, 12:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
. But I bet also because if I'm not called I don't have to show my cards and the danger of being beaten here when the action is to me on the river is very small.

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't you want to show your cards? It's not like you are trying some crazy move. You bet a solid hand after the flop was checked through, this is standard.

IMO, a bet on the river is bad. If he has AK, AQ, or KQ he's not calling this bet often enough. If he has a better hand, he's not folding it enough. Check-call. As is, I'd fold the river. The way villian played the hand makes me think a poorly played set of 10s. I don't see him checking a hand like QJ or 88 on the flop.

BWebb

07-21-2005, 12:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
to avoid that trouble I'd check/call the river here!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really really bad advice.

The bet is standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

What worse hands is the button going to call with?

shant

07-21-2005, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
River: (5.16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
I bet, Button raises, I make my cards into a little hat, get up, walk to my car, and never play 9/18 again.

[/ QUOTE ]

BWebb

07-21-2005, 01:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River: (5.16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
I bet, Button raises, I make my cards into a little hat, get up, walk to my car, and never play 9/18 again.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

LMAO! Funny [censored].

BigEndian

07-21-2005, 01:36 PM

Because I don't like to show my cards. I'm stingy like that.

RE: Betting the river. The most likely holding for your opponent when the action is to you on the river is A-high or overcards. I don't think our opponent is slowplaying anything here or spiked his 8 more than 5% of the time, probably less. So there should be no fear from a bet. And occaisionally (maybe 10-20% of the time) you will get a look-up call or a call from a small pair. Easy bet.

- Jim

BWebb

07-21-2005, 01:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]

RE: Betting the river. The most likely holding for your opponent when the action is to you on the river is A-high or overcards. I don't think our opponent is slowplaying anything here or spiked his 8 more than 5% of the time, probably less. So there should be no fear from a bet. And occaisionally (maybe 10-20% of the time) you will get a look-up call or a call from a small pair. Easy bet.

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your reasoning, but I think you are under-estimating a slowplay or catching an 8 and over-estimating a call from A high hands. What type of player will check the flop with AK, AQ or the like against 2 opponents when checked to but call a river bet with the same hands? I just don't see that happening at all, or not nearly enough for the bet to be profitable.

BigEndian

07-21-2005, 02:01 PM

We're getting close to splitting hairs. I agree that it's not going to happen very often. But I think it happens more often than him actually having you beat here. The vast majority of the time, you bet, he folds, next hand.

The above neglects the chances of him being able to raise-bluff the river of course. Without a description of the player, we can't effectively weight that in though.

- Jim

Entity

07-21-2005, 02:08 PM

BTW, every time I call this river raise, I seem to be shown TT. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

gaming_mouse

07-21-2005, 02:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold. Knowing the Commerce 9/18, this guy is NOT expecting you to lay down. He just wants one more BB because he knows he has the best hand. So few people bet/fold the river that he'll be surprised when you do. Your sevens are no good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Joker is 100% right. Also, river bluffs are ususally legit even online. In my experience they almost always are in live games at the stake we play.

Padawan Learner

07-21-2005, 02:55 PM

I am with everyone on the river fold.

But, does anyone just lead this flop. I would prefer reads to do so, but....

jason_t

07-21-2005, 05:14 PM

jason_t

07-21-2005, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is the player older, younger, male, female? I think I'm only inclined to call this if it's a younger player who might raise bluff the river. I'd muck against everyone else.

Strange hand. I'm tempted to call the river just to see what they raise PF and check this lame flop with. But I really suspect you are up against a weakly played 88.

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Early 30s Asian male.

jason_t

07-21-2005, 05:18 PM

flytrap

07-21-2005, 06:06 PM

If you think your opponent has overcards, wouldn't you think it more likely to get a bet out of him if you check? I don't think he's calling with ak here very often, and he will be it when checked to often enough that check-call is the play. And check calling means you can see the showdown, rather that getting bluffed off your hand by a raise.

meep_42

07-21-2005, 06:08 PM

On the river, Hero has done nothing in this hand but bet a turn card when the flop was checked through, he could very easily have nothing at all in the eyes of the Villain.

On the first hand, I think I pay this off. I want to know if this guy gets fancy with top set, or weak with a PP on a weak overcard flop, or will bluff raise when given the chance.

-d

callmedonnie

07-21-2005, 06:12 PM

I call. I don't think folding is an option nor raising, as you have no information on the player at all.

cnfuzzd

07-21-2005, 06:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
something no one has mentioned is that if he IS bluffing, you want to encourage him to do so more later in the session, rather than pick it off in this particular situation...

peace

john nickle

[/ QUOTE ]

Not me. I want his bluffing frequency to be zero.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ideally. However, its virtually impossible to ensure that his bluffing frequency will be zero by calling here. The few times he is bluffing, he will usually not remember that you called down his river raise with 4th pair. He usually just moves on, especially since most players who like to make these bluffs dont remember the times they fail nearly as much as the times they work. Also, IF this player is bluffing, his bluffing frequency is obviously never going to be zero.

However, in this specific situation, you find yourself in a somewhat unique position. You have a very tenuous holding, one almost marginal enough to not bet the river, on a river in a medium pot against an unknown. Chances are, he is not bluffing. However, if he is bluffing, hes not aware that he is bluffing into such a marginal hand. If your fold encourages him to bluff later in the session in the same situation but when your hand is stronger and more justify a river call, you have made yourself money.

This is somewhat tainted by the fact that villian is an unknown. For instance, if we later find out that villian is fairly tight/passive, as is possibly reflected by his play, then our play has little hope of encouraging him to bluff more often. however, if this is the case we werent ahead anyway.

peace

john nickle

Nick C

07-21-2005, 06:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You have a very tenuous holding, one almost marginal enough to not bet the river, on a river in a medium pot against an unknown. Chances are, he is not bluffing. However, if he is bluffing, hes not aware that he is bluffing into such a marginal hand. If your fold encourages him to bluff later in the session in the same situation but when your hand is stronger and more justify a river call, you have made yourself money.

[/ QUOTE ]

We gain 2 BBs by picking off a bluff-raise later.

We lose 6 BBs by folding to one now.

The only way I see that we're coming out ahead here by encouraging him to bluff is if he'll start doing it constantly against us later, remembering his one successful bluff-raise against us when we first sat down, or if his current "bluff-raise" is with a hand that actually beats ours like A8. (If he's raising a hand that beats ours, though, I kind of doubt he thinks he's actually bluffing, in this particular case.)

I will admit, however, that a large percentage of the players I've faced so far either pretty much never bluff-raise the river or do so constantly. The guys who do it constantly are kind of fun to play against, sometimes, but if Villain is a habitual river bluff-raiser, he probably doesn't need much encouragement anyway.

For the record, though, I don't like calling the river raise. I think we should bet-fold or check-call on the river, and I'm not sure which plan I like better.

cnfuzzd

07-21-2005, 07:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have a very tenuous holding, one almost marginal enough to not bet the river, on a river in a medium pot against an unknown. Chances are, he is not bluffing. However, if he is bluffing, hes not aware that he is bluffing into such a marginal hand. If your fold encourages him to bluff later in the session in the same situation but when your hand is stronger and more justify a river call, you have made yourself money.

[/ QUOTE ]

We gain 2 BBs by picking off a bluff-raise later.

We lose 6 BBs by folding to one now.

The only way I see that we're coming out ahead here by encouraging him to bluff is if he'll start doing it constantly against us later, remembering his one successful bluff-raise against us when we first sat down, or if his current "bluff-raise" is with a hand that actually beats ours like A8. (If he's raising a hand that beats ours, though, I kind of doubt he thinks he's actually bluffing, in this particular case.)

I will admit, however, that a large percentage of the players I've faced so far either pretty much never bluff-raise the river or do so constantly. The guys who do it constantly are kind of fun to play against, sometimes, but if Villain is a habitual river bluff-raiser, he probably doesn't need much encouragement anyway.

For the record, though, I don't like calling the river raise. I think we should bet-fold or check-call on the river, and I'm not sure which plan I like better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Youre assuming that he is bluffing everytime he raises this river. Incorrect.

peace

john nickle

Nick C

07-21-2005, 08:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have a very tenuous holding, one almost marginal enough to not bet the river, on a river in a medium pot against an unknown. Chances are, he is not bluffing. However, if he is bluffing, hes not aware that he is bluffing into such a marginal hand. If your fold encourages him to bluff later in the session in the same situation but when your hand is stronger and more justify a river call, you have made yourself money.

[/ QUOTE ]

We gain 2 BBs by picking off a bluff-raise later.

We lose 6 BBs by folding to one now.

The only way I see that we're coming out ahead here by encouraging him to bluff is if he'll start doing it constantly against us later, remembering his one successful bluff-raise against us when we first sat down, or if his current "bluff-raise" is with a hand that actually beats ours like A8. (If he's raising a hand that beats ours, though, I kind of doubt he thinks he's actually bluffing, in this particular case.)

I will admit, however, that a large percentage of the players I've faced so far either pretty much never bluff-raise the river or do so constantly. The guys who do it constantly are kind of fun to play against, sometimes, but if Villain is a habitual river bluff-raiser, he probably doesn't need much encouragement anyway.

For the record, though, I don't like calling the river raise. I think we should bet-fold or check-call on the river, and I'm not sure which plan I like better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Youre assuming that he is bluffing everytime he raises this river. Incorrect.

peace

john nickle

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not really assuming that. I think he's rarely bluff-raising, actually, and that's why I said I like either a bet-fold or check-call river plan.

But, all right, I think I see what you're saying. We can make what's probably a good fold now, and on those infrequent occasions when we got bluff-raised, we may benefit later from having encouraged our opponent to continue bluff-raising the river.

Anyway, in general I think river bluff-raising from my opponents hurts my game. (I'd rather have them do it less often instead of more often.) There are habitual bluff-raisers who I don't want to discourage, but my unknown opponent in this hand is probably not one of them, and, if he is, there's a good chance he doesn't need much encouragement anyway.

Jake (The Snake)

07-21-2005, 11:05 PM

Ok, here are my numbers trying to show the EV between c/c and betting. A big problem in this is I havne't played much live games and might be underestimating how often people call with overcards so let me know where my assumptions are off. I suck at estimating. I also could've messed up the math.

Betting:

10% -1BB .10
45% +5BB 2.25
28% -1BB .28
17% +6BB 1.02
= 2.89

The 10% is times you will get raised. If you fold, you obviously lose 1BB and I'll assume you call exactly often enough to make it EV neutral. The 45% is when villain folds. The 28% is when villain calls with a better hand and 17% when he calls with a worse.

C/C:

10% -1BB .10
30% +5BB 1.5
15% +6BB .90
20% -1BB .20
8% 0 0
9% +6BB .54
8% +5BB .40
= 3.04

The 10% is from when villain raised before, now he bets. The 30 and 15 comes from when he folded before. 30% he checks, 15% he bluffs. The 20 and 8 come from the 28 before and are bet and check respectively. The 9 and 8 come from 17, 9 bluff 8 check.

davet

07-22-2005, 12:58 AM

I play the commerce quite often, and I don't find too many tricky players, a pre- flop raise usually means AK KK QQ JJ, or sometimes TT. The lack of action on the flop means it missed him entirely, and this guy isn't a maniac, and I doubt he has an overpair, is anybody for betting on the flop, getting called, then check folding on the turn, dumping the cards agianst resistance?

cnfuzzd

07-22-2005, 02:54 AM

i think he checks through a hand you beat here alot more times...

peace

john nickle

flawless_victory

07-22-2005, 06:08 AM

this thread is real long now... but i am here to tell you this is a clear river check (payoff of course), and and even easier fold to the raise. EASY FOLD. you think this is a bluff? LOLOL... HAHAHAHA. NO.
9/18 live game. a river bet will not get called often by A high (opponent specific). a raise is 88/99/TT or QJ? i know you want to call bc youre curious... which is it??? just flip up your hand and say "respect, i fold pair," idiot will then show you... send me a nice card with the $18.

jason_t

07-22-2005, 08:17 AM

I called and villain showed AK.

Chris Daddy Cool

07-22-2005, 08:25 AM

i'm shocked that this post has recieved this many replies thus far. folding is clearly correct unless you *know* this guy.

ShawnHoo

07-22-2005, 03:35 PM

Were you going for a c/r on the flop?

private joker

07-22-2005, 04:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
folding is clearly correct unless you *know* this guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed. Jason's being results-oriented here. He picked off the *rare* time this is a river-raise bluff. I think bet/calling this river is a poor line. When you think about the times he'll raise on a bluff vs. the times he bets on a bluff when checked to vs. the times he checks behind with a worse hand he would have called a bet with, I think it becomes quite clear that the decision is between bet/fold and check-call. Bet/calling costs us 2BBs the vast majority of the time. Check-calling loses us 1BB in the rare time he would have called with a worse hand, and costs us less or the same (vs. bet/calling) when we're beat.

meep_42

07-22-2005, 04:06 PM

I don't think bet-calling is a cardinal sin here, and I was talking myself into thinking the villain was bluffing in my last reply before he posted the results.

I'm not sure the BB you lay out here is much more than a SB worth's of mistake -- which can easily be remedied by the information you get in seeing a showdown.

-d

Justin A

07-22-2005, 04:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I called and villain showed AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still convinced it's a bad call.

DiceyPlay

07-22-2005, 05:22 PM

with T9 on the flop, it seems like it would be silly for the button not to bet the flop if he had a hand worth protecting. The check to me says he's got less then JJ. If UTG+2 is week and button thinks he can bet him out of the pot, I'd say QJ is possible (on the flop when given the opportunity of a free card - he takes it). Given the action, 88 seems reasonable too. And a river bluff raise with overcards is likely too. I think it's definitely worth calling down - no doubt. It also let's the table know you aren't going to be run over (i.e. don't try and bluff me out of the pot).

DiceyPlay

07-22-2005, 05:30 PM

The flop is too coordinated for villain to not protect his hand ---> he doesn't have a hand.

I think I'm only concerned with QJ when he raises. I think vallain could play QJ this way if he doesn't think much of UTG+2 and thinks he can bet him out of the pot. When the flop comes and he's open ended, he decides to take the free card rather then risk a check-raise. Other then that, if he has 88, he's now concerned you migh have QJ and he would only call the river.

I call for sure .... maybe that's why I keep losing money?