AKQJds flops 22 outer! (brag hand, relatively low content)

[joewatch]

My favorite hand of the night:

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($249.05)
SB ($38.95)
Hero ($112.25)
UTG ($82.70)
UTG+1 ($92.70)
MP1 ($126.80)
MP2 ($41.70)
MP3 ($30.65)
CO ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">CO (poster) raises to $4.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $3.50, MP3 calls $3.50.

Flop: ($14) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $13.3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $53.2</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $95.5</font>, Hero calls $42.30.

Turn: ($205) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($205) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $205

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Kd Ad Qc Jc (straight, king high).
CO has Td 8h Qs Qd (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $205.

pokenum -o ad kd qc jc - qs qd td 8h -- 5d 9d tc
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Tc 9d 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jc Ad Kd 564 68.78 256 31.22 0 0.00 0.688
Qs Qd Td 8h 256 31.22 564 68.78 0 0.00 0.312

pokenum -o ad kd qc jc - qs qd td 8h -- 5d 9d tc 6s
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing 6s Tc 9d 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jc Ad Kd 18 45.00 22 55.00 0 0.00 0.450
Qs Qd Td 8h 22 55.00 18 45.00 0 0.00 0.550
</font>

[Toddster18]

[ QUOTE ]
My favorite hand of the night:

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($249.05)
SB ($38.95)
Hero ($112.25)
UTG ($82.70)
UTG+1 ($92.70)
MP1 ($126.80)
MP2 ($41.70)
MP3 ($30.65)
CO ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">CO (poster) raises to $4.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $3.50, MP3 calls $3.50.

Flop: ($14) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $13.3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $53.2</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $95.5</font>, Hero calls $42.30.

Turn: ($205) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($205) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $205

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Kd Ad Qc Jc (straight, king high).
CO has Td 8h Qs Qd (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $205.

pokenum -o ad kd qc jc - qs qd td 8h -- 5d 9d tc
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Tc 9d 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jc Ad Kd 564 68.78 256 31.22 0 0.00 0.688
Qs Qd Td 8h 256 31.22 564 68.78 0 0.00 0.312

pokenum -o ad kd qc jc - qs qd td 8h -- 5d 9d tc 6s
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing 6s Tc 9d 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jc Ad Kd 18 45.00 22 55.00 0 0.00 0.450
Qs Qd Td 8h 22 55.00 18 45.00 0 0.00 0.550
</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

A) Best. Flop. Ever.

B) Villain is an idiot. Make a note. /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Nice hand, sir!

-Todd

[joewatch]

I just realized I also flopped a backdoor club draw.
Add another 1 1/2 outs to my 22 outer!

[TheRempel]

I have a list of a few likely suspects for the CO player. Wanna inform me?

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is an idiot. Make a note.

[/ QUOTE ]
The villain had an overpair, top pair, a gutshot, and a flush draw. Is he supposed to fold to the check-raise? He does pretty well against a lot of hands with which I would check-raise. He wins over 40% of the time against a set, and can be a big favorite over many decent hands, such as AKQJ or KQJT without the flush draw, and a small favorite over something like KKJT. He was a big underdog here because his flush draw was dead, his straight draw was dead, his draw to two pair was dead, and the villain had two overcards.

[Toddster18]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain is an idiot. Make a note.

[/ QUOTE ]
The villain had an overpair, top pair, a gutshot, and a flush draw. Is he supposed to fold to the check-raise? He does pretty well against a lot of hands with which I would check-raise. He wins over 40% of the time against a set, and can be a big favorite over many decent hands, such as AKQJ or KQJT without the flush draw, and a small favorite over something like KKJT. He was a big underdog here because his flush draw was dead, his straight draw was dead, his draw to two pair was dead, and the villain had two overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

This kind of thinking seems to be in total hindsight, to me.

Put yourself in villains shoes. I have a gushot draw, an overpair to a coordinated board, and a 3rd nut flush draw. Sure, i'm not killed against most any hand.

However, what kind of hand can hero have that villain has positive equity against? I can think of one hand a - a naked straight draw.

It's all fine and dandy that villain is rarely crushed, but that just isn't good enough in PLO. Almost never are you totally obliterated in this game, in my opinion. Unless villian is mega-lag or is doing this because he wants the image, it is silly of him to be ready to shove his stack in when he is almost never ahead and almost always a 6-4 dog or so.

I stand by my statement that this was a donk-ish play by villain. /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

-Todd

[joewatch]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a list of a few likely suspects for the CO player. Wanna inform me?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll sell you the name for $10. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif See ya on Stars!

[TheRempel]

Remember that player that I was aching to break the other day? I went to bed and couldn't sleep. Got up after a few hours and found him at a $200 table with a $1000 stack. I had the entire stack within 30 hands. It was grrrrrrreaat!

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain is an idiot. Make a note.

[/ QUOTE ]
The villain had an overpair, top pair, a gutshot, and a flush draw. Is he supposed to fold to the check-raise? He does pretty well against a lot of hands with which I would check-raise. He wins over 40% of the time against a set, and can be a big favorite over many decent hands, such as AKQJ or KQJT without the flush draw, and a small favorite over something like KKJT. He was a big underdog here because his flush draw was dead, his straight draw was dead, his draw to two pair was dead, and the villain had two overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

This kind of thinking seems to be in total hindsight, to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you mean by that? How is your thinking any less "in hindsight" than mine?

Honestly, did you notice that the villain had a flush draw and straight draw when you said his play was idiotic, or are you just trying to justify that statement now?

[ QUOTE ]
Put yourself in villains shoes. I have a gushot draw, an overpair to a coordinated board, and a 3rd nut flush draw. Sure, i'm not killed against most any hand.

However, what kind of hand can hero have that villain has positive equity against? I can think of one hand a - a naked straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
QQT8 is a favorite against many more hands, and there is a lot of dead money in the pot by the time the hero check-raised.

[ QUOTE ]
It's all fine and dandy that villain is rarely crushed, but that just isn't good enough in PLO. Almost never are you totally obliterated in this game, in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course it is enough to stay in if almost no hand is more than a 3:2 favorite. If the choices were to push or fold, the villain would only need to win 40.1% (40.7% if you consider the rake) in order to prefer pushing.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1098116
Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.312
Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 0.688 hero's nut flush draw + wrap + overcards

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1098107
Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.380
K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.620 high flush draw + pair + OESD

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1098075
Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.476
A/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.524 top set

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1098083
Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.676
J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.324 "20-out" straight draw.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1098087
Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.688
K/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 0.312 high wrap

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1098091
Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.588
A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 0.412 higher overpair, 2 outs blocked

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1098095
Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.634
A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 0.366 higher overpair, 0 outs blocked

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1098097
Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.605
8/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.395 top two plus OESD

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1098101
Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.674
5/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.326 wrap plus baby flush draw plus pair

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1098120
Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.811
6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 0.189 bottom pair + optimism

I think folding would be idiotic. Make a note on me, too.

[Big Dave D]

The key is as you rightly point out,is the villian getting 40% equity against the range of hands here. I suspect that the answer, against a sane hero, is quite close. It probably doesnt really matter whether he folds or pushes in this spot, EV wise. The decision comes down to variance and meta game.

gl

dd

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
The key is as you rightly point out,is the villian getting 40% equity against the range of hands here. I suspect that the answer, against a sane hero, is quite close.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it is close when he is ahead of so many hands, and better than 40% against a dry set. I think folding here is at least $15 worse than pushing.

If people would fold a hand as strong as this to a check-raise, maybe I should be check-raising as a bluff much more frequently. To those who would fold to a check-raise, would you simply not bet this flop, giving a free card to weak draws?