a 2+2 oddity...a postflop problem

[WebGuySteve]

I have no reads on anyone at this time.

Here is the hand, I will post my thought process after this gets some responses, then, the results:

***** Hand History for Game 2396231496 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:14108533 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Wednesday, July 20, 17:31:07 EDT 2005
Table Table 14006 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 5: yohan333 ( $940 )
Seat 10: EvetsYugBew1 ( $1065 )
Seat 1: KiepDoDen04 ( $940 )
Seat 2: Diesel882 ( $1010 )
Seat 7: bluffman75 ( $1100 )
Seat 9: peakman ( $925 )
Seat 8: Bloodthurst ( $975 )
Seat 4: HalconGris ( $1025 )
Seat 3: differentone ( $1030 )
Seat 6: louster ( $990 )
Trny:14108533 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to EvetsYugBew1 [ Ac Qc ]
HalconGris raises [50].
yohan333 folds.
louster calls [50].
bluffman75 calls [50].
Bloodthurst folds.
peakman calls [50].
EvetsYugBew1 calls [50].
KiepDoDen04 folds.
Diesel882 calls [40].
>You have options at Table 14002 Table!.
differentone folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qd, 6h, 2d ]
Diesel882 checks.
HalconGris checks.
louster bets [215].
bluffman75 folds.
>You have options at Table 13984 Table!.
peakman folds.
EvetsYugBew1 calls [215].
>You have options at Table 13984 Table!.
Diesel882 calls [215].
>You have options at Table 14002 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13984 Table!.
HalconGris folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7h ]
Diesel882 checks.
>You have options at Table 13984 Table!.
louster bets [500].

[curtains]

Id move allin on the flop.

[11t]

I fold preflop.

I probably go broke when I hit tptk and wish I had folded preflop.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

Id move allin on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good plan

[WebGuySteve]

[ QUOTE ]

Id move allin on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to do this, I'd like to get a few more responses before I say why I didn't. Then you can pick apart my thought process.

[Nottom]

I was about to post asking how log it would be before someone would say to fold preflop.

I know people hate AQ early, but if you can't play AQs in LP with 4 players already in the pot for 5% of your stack. Well ... I'm sorry.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Id move allin on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to do this, I'd like to get a few more responses before I say why I didn't. Then you can pick apart my thought process.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm gonna guess it involves pushing on the turn when the flush misses. I might try something like this with fewer players hanging around, but in a big pot like this I just want to shut everyone out and if the draw calls getting the odds he needs then I guess I'll just have to take my 2-1 edge and live with it.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I was about to post asking how log it would be before someone would say to fold preflop.

I know people hate AQ early, but if you can't play AQs in LP with 4 players already in the pot for 5% of your stack. Well ... I'm sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the thing is though it's a raised pot, and 4 have called the raise. I probably don't fold this either though. It's not at 25/50 blinds.

[WebGuySteve]

[ QUOTE ]
I was about to post asking how log it would be before someone would say to fold preflop.

I know people hate AQ early, but if you can't play AQs in LP with 4 players already in the pot for 5% of your stack. Well ... I'm sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking the exact same thing when I posted this. I even told my friend that this board would tell me to fold preflop, lol.

[11t]

I'm an idiot and didn't see it was t1000 chip tournament.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Id move allin on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to do this, I'd like to get a few more responses before I say why I didn't. Then you can pick apart my thought process.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly I feel you are just making poker harder than it is by doing anything other than allin here IMO, and I highly doubt calling is more +EV.

[Jay36489]

I assume you aren't calling here with the thought of laying this down at any point. Perhaps you are hoping to trap original raiser if he has a weaker Q that he might be willing to lay down to a push? Somewhat dangerous, but if you push the flop and you are beat (unlikely 2pr or set) you are busted. If you make this play and you were beat the whole time you are busted all the same. If you can assume the level of play at a 215 is such that people aren't calling here with a missed AK or 2nd pair, but will lay down a weaker Q to a flop push this could work.

Am I even close?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I was about to post asking how log it would be before someone would say to fold preflop.

I know people hate AQ early, but if you can't play AQs in LP with 4 players already in the pot for 5% of your stack. Well ... I'm sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is terrible. Moving allin is better than folding, however I'd call.

[curtains]

if you had something like 700-800 chips this would be a very very clear allin with AQs

[WebGuySteve]

Well, here goes my crazy logic...

I figure with this board to bet out that amount, he's gotta have a hand he likes, a bluff is virtually out of the question. So, what kinds of hands does he like here calling an UTG raise from EP? AQ, perhaps some sort of flush draw, or a set, MAYBE KQ, but, I think that is pushing it a bit, especially betting into that many people. I still have the original UTG raiser behind me, and another caller, both of whom checked. My plan here is to call, and see if either of them are going to check raise, if so, i have to assume I'm beat, maybe a flush draw, but, it's safe to assume I'm beat somewhere. Also, I want to see how much he bets on the turn. If he bets the pot again, I am going to figure he likes his hand and fold it, if he makes a small bet, I'm going to push it, unless the flush comes, especially since one behind me called.

This is all easier said then done, and when he bet the 500 i did fold putting him on 66. He showed his hand and it was 66.

I am wondering if I should have pushed the flop though.

[WebGuySteve]

I'd also like to mention that when I folded the turn here, I was left with 800 chips.

[Jay36489]

Doesn't it seem more likely he would slowplay a set on this ragged flop, and since he fast played it, its less likely he has one? What did overcaller have?

[WebGuySteve]

I don't think I would slowplay a set here with so many callers, and 2 diamonds on the flop, you gotta figure SOMEONE hit something on the flop so I think betting out to get someone to raise allin with a hand like AQ would be better, at least thats how i would probably play it.

The overcaller folded on the turn also.

[Irieguy]

Moving all in on the flop is definitely the best way to play this hand with those chip stacks.

Irieguy

[Jay36489]

When I first read it I thought flop was rainbow. I guess I understand your reasoning in that TPTK doesnt do so well against 6 people seeing a flop. But still, in these short stack games you can't lay down TPTK too much.

[WebGuySteve]

so if we're pushing the flop, laying down the turn here when a harmless card falls is poor? I just think that gaining more info is better, maybe the stacks are too shallow, I dunno, I'm still not convinced it's a CLEAR push on the flop.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
... maybe the stacks are too shallow, I dunno, I'm still not convinced it's a CLEAR push on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are exactly right, the stacks are too shallow for any other play. In my opinion, it's a "clear" push. And you will lose sometimes.

Irieguy

[me1tdown]

Forgive my confusion -- I'm living in $11 land, but the preflop action made me feel right at home:
UTG does a 3x raise and there are 5 calls?! I know the Gap concept is non-existent at the $11s, but say it ain't so where you're at.

[WebGuySteve]

that sort of preflop action is very uncommon, the gap concept is usually in full force, which is why i was hesitent with that flop and getting action.

[adanthar]

The call is pretty standard with 1000. 800 is iffy, if the guy had good Prophecy stats and seemed like a $33 pro I might actually fold here.

The flop: originally, I thought UTG was the bettor. I think a call is probably correct (in fact, if he is good, I would *fold*, because he is not betting into 5 people without a hand that at least ties you.)

Since someone else is betting, though, this can be AQ-QJ just as easily as 66/22 and there are many more combos of the former. You also have a billion people behind you and a flush draw on board (very different from just the 3 of you in the hand). You've got to push here.

Once you just call, the turn is read dependent but I would probably go broke. Good laydown.

[SammyKid11]

Well, I'm just now looking at the hand (haven't looked at previous replies)...

Why not raise the flop? Defines your hand, forces a draw to put in more money (there are two diamonds on board).

He hasn't played this hand in a way that says QQ, 66, or 22. I think most people don't necessarily bet out with their sets like that into a multiple player field -- they're usually looking to c/r or get their money in on the turn, IMO.

He hasn't played this hand in such a way that you can give him credit for AA or KK. Q6, Q2, 62 all seem very unlikely. I think you've gotta make a threatening raise on the flop and be prepared to go with this thing. I put him on KQ or QJ.

[curtains]

You give your opponents too much respect!

[WebGuySteve]

[ QUOTE ]

You give your opponents too much respect!

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe this is my problem.

[WebGuySteve]

[ QUOTE ]

Why not raise the flop? Defines your hand, forces a draw to put in more money (there are two diamonds on board).


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't raise the flop because i felt like i could get more information on the turn to help me make a more accurate decision.

[SammyKid11]

So with 20% of your stack you made a play that was immediately -EV (calling, as compared to raising)...that allowed flush draws a cheap card, that didn't flesh out where you were...so that you could fold to a stronger bet (but still ultimately the same percentage of the pot) on the turn?

To me, that just sounds like you wasted 20% of your stack. But that's just me.

What did his turn bet tell you that his flop bet didn't?

Edit: I guess the turn bet wasn't the same percentage of the pot...it was more than double his last bet, but you had two flop callers...so it was actually a bet of slightly less percentage of the flop. My question still stands, though. What new information did you gain?

[adanthar]

To be fair about it, at that point it's obvious he's not against (for example) QJs unless the guy is a total clown. He could still be overplaying KQ, though.

[WebGuySteve]

Well, I feel that if he didn't really like his hand, he's going to back down here. Granted, he could be bluffing, or he could have KQ, but, with another big turn bet, I feel the chances that I'm beat here are much greater. It also let's me get away from this hand with 800 chips still intact to make a run later in the tourney.

On the flop I thought I was beat, the turn confirmed it for me, and I didn't go broke which I feel a lot of people would have. My concern is that this is negative reinforcement of a poor play. Though, I have gotten in so many times with TPTK vs a set where I *knew* he had a set but didn't lay it down for the reasons you all have given me. I decided to try and play this one to my instincts and I was correct...

[SammyKid11]

I don't think it's at all ridiculous to think villain could have QJ of hearts, specifically. He continues to like his hand because he still has TP and now he's picked up the flush draw, as well. Villain then decides to push his opponents and hope his play makes his opponent (our Hero) to do exactly what he did...fold a better hand...but he's armed with the comfort of the hearts now if he gets called or rr'ed.

I dunno, I still think villain's overplaying KQ here a lot of the time, as well...and there are some times where you're chopping with another AQ. Sure, there are a few times that 66 is a possibility...probably not 22 as much...and very rarely 77. I just think these other scenarios are happening much more often and that putting him to the test on the flop is a better option...

Well, rather -- that calling and waiting for the turn does not give you enough new information to justify the call for 20% of your stack instead of the push.

Obviously, it worked out in this situation...congrats. I wasn't sitting at the table, and maybe you should trust your instincts. From looking at it on paper, I'll still stand by my original argument. But nh.

[WebGuySteve]

I am not trying to argue that pushing the flop is bad, or that it's even a worse play than mine, like I had said, I was seriously thinking about pushing the flop with it.

I posted this more as a question to how people sniff out sets or if they just go broke against them. I guess I don't play the sngs thinking "I put in 20% of my stack" I don't mind that as long as I make the right play and leave myself with enough chips, which I think 80% of my stack does this. I dunno, I can completely see what you're saying, and I will definitely get bluffed some times playing like this. Hell, this is probably -EV even posting this cuz i'm sure everyone is licking their lips waiting to get into the next game with me.

At any rate, I thought it was an interesting hand, but, I guess I'm the only one who agrees with me, so not much room for discussion, haha.

[SammyKid11]

Hey...I think it's an interesting hand, as well. And when a player develops instincts...sometimes you've gotta go with it. Nice post.

[joeblo]

I've never played at anything higher then the 33s so I may just be a noob, but I think you made the correct play. I know that with SNGs, a lot of what we do is based upon what the numbers dictate, but SNGs are still poker and isn't poker about making decisions like this based upon your intuition and your reads?