slickpoppa
07-20-2005, 03:08 PM
I propose the following experiment to test whether or not prayer actually works.
The experiment starts with Bill Gates donating $100,000,000 that will be the prize for the experiment. For the sake of discussion, let's say that BossJJ is the lucky person who gets to participate in the experiment and be the designated prayer for Judaism. In the experiment, BossJJ will be matched up in the contest against an atheist. It is determined ahead of time that if BossJJ wins the experiment (I will describe how that is accomplished later), the 100 million will be donated to a charitable cause that BossJJ believes to comport with God's will. However, if BossJJ loses, the money will be destroyed.
The rules of the contest are as follows: Both BossJJ and the atheist are given $10,000,000 in casino chips to wager on roulette. Each must wager $1 on red or black on roulette 10 million times (For the sake of the experiment the wheel will only have red and black slots). They will wager on separate roulette wheels. Before each wager BossJJ has an opportunity to pray that the color that he bets on comes up. Also, the atheist is required to declare his bets early enough so that BossJJ can pray against the atheist's color from coming up.
BossJJ will want to pray for his number and pray against the atheist’s number because, according to the rules, the only way he can win this experiment is if after both him and the atheist have made their 10 million wagers, BossJJ is up by more than 5 standard deviations from the mean, and the atheist is down by more than 5 standard deviations from the mean. This experiment follows a binomial distribution and 1 standard deviation = Sqrt(.25*10,000,000) = 1,581. This means that the BossJJ only needs to win 5,007,905 wagers and the atheist only has to lose 5,007,905 wagers. I can’t look up right now what is the probability of this happening without divine intervention, but it is extremely small, I’m guessing on the order of 1 in a billion. But in order for BossJJ to win, God only needs to intervene in a relatively small number of the wagers.
So my question to BossJJ and others who believe in prayer, if you lost this experiment, would you be willing to admit that prayer does not work? If your answer is no, why? Why would God refuse to intervene in this experiment when the benefits would be so great. Not only would money go to a great cause, but this experiment could convince non-believers such as Sklansky and myself of the power of prayer. Shouldn’t God want to help us believe?
And if you don’t believe that my experiment is a valid test of whether or not prayer works, do you think it is possible to perform a REPEATABLE experiment that could prove the power of prayer? If yes, give me an example. If no, then explain to me why I, or anyone for that matter, should believe in prayer if it is something that cannot be verified by experimentation. If it is something I shoudl just take on faith, then how do I chose which God to praye to?
The experiment starts with Bill Gates donating $100,000,000 that will be the prize for the experiment. For the sake of discussion, let's say that BossJJ is the lucky person who gets to participate in the experiment and be the designated prayer for Judaism. In the experiment, BossJJ will be matched up in the contest against an atheist. It is determined ahead of time that if BossJJ wins the experiment (I will describe how that is accomplished later), the 100 million will be donated to a charitable cause that BossJJ believes to comport with God's will. However, if BossJJ loses, the money will be destroyed.
The rules of the contest are as follows: Both BossJJ and the atheist are given $10,000,000 in casino chips to wager on roulette. Each must wager $1 on red or black on roulette 10 million times (For the sake of the experiment the wheel will only have red and black slots). They will wager on separate roulette wheels. Before each wager BossJJ has an opportunity to pray that the color that he bets on comes up. Also, the atheist is required to declare his bets early enough so that BossJJ can pray against the atheist's color from coming up.
BossJJ will want to pray for his number and pray against the atheist’s number because, according to the rules, the only way he can win this experiment is if after both him and the atheist have made their 10 million wagers, BossJJ is up by more than 5 standard deviations from the mean, and the atheist is down by more than 5 standard deviations from the mean. This experiment follows a binomial distribution and 1 standard deviation = Sqrt(.25*10,000,000) = 1,581. This means that the BossJJ only needs to win 5,007,905 wagers and the atheist only has to lose 5,007,905 wagers. I can’t look up right now what is the probability of this happening without divine intervention, but it is extremely small, I’m guessing on the order of 1 in a billion. But in order for BossJJ to win, God only needs to intervene in a relatively small number of the wagers.
So my question to BossJJ and others who believe in prayer, if you lost this experiment, would you be willing to admit that prayer does not work? If your answer is no, why? Why would God refuse to intervene in this experiment when the benefits would be so great. Not only would money go to a great cause, but this experiment could convince non-believers such as Sklansky and myself of the power of prayer. Shouldn’t God want to help us believe?
And if you don’t believe that my experiment is a valid test of whether or not prayer works, do you think it is possible to perform a REPEATABLE experiment that could prove the power of prayer? If yes, give me an example. If no, then explain to me why I, or anyone for that matter, should believe in prayer if it is something that cannot be verified by experimentation. If it is something I shoudl just take on faith, then how do I chose which God to praye to?