Is 300BB really enough?

[Kyriefurro]

Any time someone asks "How much money should I have to play at limit X?" the automatic response is 300BB. Yet anyone who's spent even a little time in the forums soon notices that the majority of serious posters keep a significantly larger bankroll. Sfer's post confirms this - over half of the repondents have >500BB. Some have over 1000BB!!

So I'm curious...why do we continue to use 300BB as the magic number? Is it really valid? and if so, why are so many of us uncomfortable playing with that size of a bankroll?

I realize that 300BB is considered to be "bare minimum," so what would be the "ideal" bankroll size?

I've been thinking about this question a lot the last few days as I'm making plans to move up to 3/6, and I have my own thoughts about this, but I'd really like to hear from some of the more experienced players out there.

Thanks /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[toss]

300 BB should be enough, but most of us are risk averse/ uncomfortable playing with 150 BB if we hit a 150 BB downswing.

[krimson]

The thinking behind a 300bb bankroll is that you are prepared to drop down a limit if a downswing puts you into an uncomfortable position (bankroll wise). Most of us don't want to move down a limit.

Plus, bankroll typically grows faster than skill. I have a bankroll for 15/30 games, and play 2/4.

[Paxosmotic]

300BB is enough for up to 4 tables. I like a little more for 8 tables (400BB), only because I don't like having 2/3rds of my roll on the tables at one time. That said, the reason a lot of us have extra is because we simply don't cash out. My Party account is essentially a bank account for me, so I just earn and earn and it sits there until I feel like buying a new toy. So I guess a more accurate description of my bankroll is "400bb plus whatever I've built up since the last toy I bought."

I don't think any consistent winners at 2/4 and up honestly feel they need 500BB+ to cover downswings. It's just winnings.

Edit : Krimson's point about bankroll > skill is also very true, and more accurate.

[ceskylev]

This is something I've been thinking about as well. 300 BB is probably enough...if you're a robot. We all have a low water mark that if we cross it, we aren't comfortable playing anymore. For me, it's 150BB. For better players, it might be lower. At any rate, once you're playing scared, it's time to drop down, which completely sucks.

Better to decide what your threshold is, and add that number to the standard 300BB to come up with your newer, better BR size. Whereas your risk of ruin was once 5%, that 5% would now be your risk of having to move down a limit.

Turning pro is not something that appeals to me, but I'd never do it with fewer than 500BB, if only to avoid having to stress over every 100+BB downswing.

[flair1239]

There are formulas you can use to calculate required BR to minimise your risk of ruin.

The lower your win-rate the more you need (your downswings are bigger and more frequent with a lower WR). The higher your standard deviation the more you need.

A good rule is the higher you go the more BB you need. For myself, I would feel comfortable starting to play 1/2 with $400 (200BB). But I would not feel comfortable playing 10/20 with $6,000 (300BB).

Here is a link to a BR formula post

Bankroll link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=probability&Number=2315010 &fpart=&PHPSESSID=)

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
300 BB should be enough, but most of us are risk averse/ uncomfortable playing with 150 BB if we hit a 150 BB downswing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus for many micro and SS people, bonus whoring builds up your bankroll faster than your skill level, so by the time you've put in 10k or more hands at your old limit you have waaaaay more than 300BB for the next level.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
A good rule is the higher you go the more BB you need. For myself, I would feel comfortable starting to play 1/2 with $400 (200BB). But I would not feel comfortable playing 10/20 with $6,000 (300BB).


[/ QUOTE ]
This is also a good thing to consider, what you're comfortable with. A few of us in this thread are proven winners up through 3/6, and two of us are bankrolled for 15/30. However, I am a losing player at 15/30, so if I was to make the jump, I'd need enough to not only cover downswings, but cover learning how to play. I would play scared with 300bb (and also deserve to lose every dime for jumping from 3/6 to 15/30).

[Crveballin]

I know for a fact I am risk adverse. That speaking I took my time through the micro's to make sure I had what it takes to cut it at $2/$4 and above. I have 400BB for $3/$6 yet I have only played 3500 hands at $2/$4. During those hands I have had a 80BB downswing but still running well with over 300BB(at 2/4).

Do I think I can win at $3/$6? Yes I do, but I want to make sure that I have enough hands under my belt at $2/$4 to make sure that I am not just running well.

[Kyriefurro]

Since I made my "last" $300 buy-in on May 8, I have had a firm rule that when bankroll=300BB @ Limit X I would move to that limit, regardless of whether I was moving up or down. The result has been I've bounced around between 1/2 and 2/4 like a yo-yo. I've also made a couple of observations:

#1) If I step down regularly, 300BB @ 2/4 would really give me 600BB before I completely bust out (150 @ 2/4 + 150 @ 1/2 + 300 @ .50/1).

#2) You have to win 300BB to move up to 2/4 from 1/2, but only 150BB lost before you have to step back down.

#3) It takes a lot longer to move up than it takes to move down /images/graemlins/crazy.gif.

The move from 2/4 to 3/6 is even more unusual in that the limits only increase 50% instead of doubling. So if I stuck to my system, I'd only have a 100BB cushion before I have to drop back down to 2/4.

So in my case I don't think that 300BB is enough, especially as it relates to my goals of moving up to higher limits. I think that I want to have at least 500BB for 3/6 before I move up. This would give me a full 300BB cushion before I had to step back down to 2/4, which would help me be a lot more relaxed in my playing. In addition, since I'm much less likely to loose 300BB than 100BB, I could stop doing my yo-yo impersonation /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

This would also have the added benefit of making me play even more hands at 2/4, which *should* ensure that my skills are solid enough to make the move to 3/6.

[hobbsmann]

This sounds like a fine plan. Currently I'm working on moving up from 3/6 to 5/10 and I have enough set aside that if I have a 100-150 BB downswing at 5/10 I'll move back down to 3/6 and still be confortable BR wise there (300-400 BB).

[Akimka]

Because if we will get numbers from average limkt player like StdDev (D) = 1.4, WinRate = 0.015 (1.5BB/100) then submitting it to formulas.
1. AvgPeriod of extremum = (S*D*0.5/WinRate)^2 where S is sigma = percision. 2 is around 97.7% precision.

Extr=WinRate*AvgPeriod-3*D*SQRT(AvgPeriod)

Is about 300 with provided numbers.

In summary average Limit Player (with winrate about 1.5BB/100 and StdDev about 1.41 (you can see it in session tab on PT) will suffer downstakes for no more than 300BB each 10K hands. Probability that this downstakes will be no more than 300BB is 97.7%.

But this math applies only if your results are methematicly proved. If not (winrate is lower than provided 1.5BB) that downstakes can be more than 300BB!!!!

[sthief09]

I was overrolled for 20/40, had a quick upswing followed by a quick downswing, and moved down with my tail between my legs. 300 isn't enough, 500 isn't really enough if you can't replenish it.

it may be enough, but it just sucks to work so hard to win at one level, then lose it twice as fast at the next level

[Akimka]

Because if we will get numbers for average limit player with stats like StdDev (D) = 1.4, WinRate = 0.015 (1.5BB/100) then submitting it to formulas.
1. AvgPeriod of extremum (how often you will encounter maximal downstreak) = (S*D*0.5/WinRate)^2 where S is sigma = percision. 2 is around 97.7% precision.

Extr (max upstake or downstake from expected result)=WinRate*AvgPeriod-S*D*SQRT(AvgPeriod)

Is about 300BB with provided stats.

In summary average Limit Player (with winrate about 1.5BB/100 and StdDev about 1.41 (you can see it in session tab on PT) will suffer downstakes for no more than 300BB each 10K hands. Probability that this downstakes will be no more than 300BB is 97.7%.

But this math applies only if your results are methematicly proved. If not (winrate is lower than provided 1.5BB) that downstakes can be more than 300BB!!!!

For example please take this example table.

Winrate (bb/100)Downstake can be up to (BB)...
0.2 2424
0.4 1212
0.8 606
1 485
1.2 404
1.4 346
1.6 303
1.8 269
2 242
2.2 220
2.4 202
2.6 186
2.8 173

So when we talking about 300BB bankroll we assuming that we playing not worse then having 1.5BB/100. And another one - this calculations was done with percision of 2 sigma (97.7) if we will put 3 in our formula that will be 3 sigma (99.7) percision we will get greater numbers.

In conclusion - if you living on poker incomes and don't have any other incomes other than playing (like bonuses, rakeback and so) you must support bankroll with not less than 400BB. Better will be good. If you have additional incomes just calculate them just divides total sum of money on number of hands that you play in average in month and add to your winrate and so you will get less needed bankroll.

[flair1239]

good stuff. Thankyou

[Kyriefurro]

Wow! Thanks for the math and numbers. I knew that the 300BB number was based on about a 5% ROR for the "average" player, but I didn't know what the assumptions were for what was considered average SD and win rate. And the extended break-down in your second post really helps put things in perspective as to how variations in win-rate can affect how big a bankroll is needed.

ok maybe im not understanding this thread correctly but...
every pro I talked to (6-8)(2 famous) Claimed that at a table they genreally sit at 40 x the big blind, so 120 at a 3/6 table. They also said that their entire bankroll consists of 4x that amount, so if ur playing a lot at 3/6 ur entire bankroll should be about 650. I asked why so little and they said that if you loose more than that in a month or so, your playing loosing poker! After 4/5 sessions, if you dont have any winning sessions skip down to 1/2. H larmorec@msu.edu ope this helps and i understood question correctly.
CDL

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
ok maybe im not understanding this thread correctly but...
every pro I talked to (6-8)(2 famous) Claimed that at a table they genreally sit at 40 x the big blind, so 120 at a 3/6 table. They also said that their entire bankroll consists of 4x that amount, so if ur playing a lot at 3/6 ur entire bankroll should be about 650. I asked why so little and they said that if you loose more than that in a month or so, your playing loosing poker! After 4/5 sessions, if you dont have any winning sessions skip down to 1/2. H larmorec@msu.edu ope this helps and i understood question correctly.
CDL

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't think so. Maybe a 100BB BR is fine for just taking a shot. But I really can't imagine any pros (who are self sufficient and not constantly bumming for a stake) keeping a 100BB bankroll. If you play aggresively you can lose 100BB very quickly

For continous and long play, (like a pro) I have heard 300-600bb. I like to sit lower than this, it keeps me diciplined.
cdl

[MaxPower]

There is no person in the world for whom 300BB is the correct bankroll. That is just a rule of thumb that Sklansky came up with and it has taken on a life of its own.

The best thing to do is to use the forumlas and figure out what you need.

If you have a very high win rate at a low limit game you can probably do with much less than 300. If you have a ok win rate at a mid-limit game, you probably need much more than 300.

I have had downswings of 400BB in the 15/30 game, so I keep enough bankroll to get through that or much worse.

[PokerBob]

no

[Rudbaeck]

300BB is enough for a starting roll if you do not withdraw a cent. The idea is that the bankroll will grow faster than the potential downswing. If you at the end of every month withdraw everything over 300BB you are going to bust sooner rather than later.

Your bankroll has to grow. And it pretty much has to grow forever if you plan to continously move up.

If you absolutely want to have a static roll and withdraw any winnings at the end of each month I'd suggest 1000BB.