Standing up to the bubble bully

[durron597]

Villian in this hand was playing pretty tight early but really loosened up on the Bubble. You think there's a pretty good chance he is pushing with any two. What is the worst hand you call with here? I suppose this is just a math question, isn't it.

Hm, I decided to do the math before submitting the thread. ICM says that Hero should call with AA-TT, and that's it (assuming the Bubble LAG is pushing with any two). What do you call with?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600, ante is t50 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1391)
Button <font color="#A500AF">(Bubble LAG)</font> (t6973)
SB (t975)
Hero (t4161)

Preflop: Hero is BB with X, X.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button <font color="#A500AF">(Bubble LAG)</font> raises to t6973</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t7123

[schwza]

it might not be the right play, but i don't think i could fold AK/99 there.

what % do you need to win according to icm?

[durron597]

.7324 is the breakeven point.

[bluefeet]

against big stack, i would stick pretty close to your AA-TT analysis. i just don't see a reason to tangle w/ him - as long as he's doing his share of UTG aggression, putting preasure on the shorties as well.

[wildzer0]

With two people so close to going out, I probably fold anything but kings or aces here and steal when/if the big stacks not in the hand.

[reecelights]

I might call with that suggestion if he were UTG. On the button I add 99 and AJs. From the small blind 77 and A8s. Although he is the big stack, and that usually makse me back off a bit. I definitely call with those ranges once ITM.

But my Power Tools are at home and not at work, and I may be wrong in my instincts here. Although aren't the instincts important since you can't use the Tool during a game?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I might call with that suggestion if he were UTG. On the button I add 99 and AJs. From the small blind 77 and A8s.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you think there's a good chance he's pushing any two, why does his position matter?

[gumpzilla]

The villain has you good here. I'm actually a little surprised that TT is a good call here, according to ICM, what with the two severe shorties. After UTG posts his BB next turn, you're going to have two stacks with just over 1 BB behind. Let them either bust or draw chips from the big stack.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
The villain has you good here. I'm actually a little surprised that TT is a good call here

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed and I certainly don't like CALLING w/ 77-99 as I've seen posted. I'm sure he could be pushing any 2 and I play for first place around the bubble but I'll pick my battles w/ the short stacks before I get after it w/ the chip leader in this situation unless I have a monster.

[tigerite]

99 is just about ok if you are 100% sure it really is any two he is pushing with. In reality it usually isn't. I have a hard time folding QQ-JJ, and always call with AA and KK

[durron597]

If you are chip leader, do you push any two here?

Top 90% of hands?

Top 80%? Top 50%

[reecelights]

I tend to give UTG a bit more credit since they have to survive the extra folder, plus I see fewer "any two" steals from that position. This is at lower buy-ins though.

But good question.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to give UTG a bit more credit since they have to survive the extra folder, plus I see fewer "any two" steals from that position. This is at lower buy-ins though.

But good question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Open pushing with any two is almost always more of a question of stack sizes and blind sizes than it is of position.

No one replied to my post about "what actually is correct for Villian to push with here".

[schwza]

i would push any 2. one reason i think my calling standards would be a little looser than icm is that if you fold here, big stack will likely steal the next blind too (utg will be short in his bb, but will probably fold), and the one after that if no one pre-empts him. big stack can also fold his SB to the short-stack (current SB) to keep the bubble alive and keep robbing your blinds.

if you call and double up, you get to make some bubble steals.

[arod15]

Any Ace
KJ K10 KQ K9
Q10 QJ
10 10
JJ 99

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
i would push any 2. one reason i think my calling standards would be a little looser than icm is that if you fold here, big stack will likely steal the next blind too (utg will be short in his bb, but will probably fold), and the one after that if no one pre-empts him. big stack can also fold his SB to the short-stack (current SB) to keep the bubble alive and keep robbing your blinds.

if you call and double up, you get to make some bubble steals.

[/ QUOTE ]

AKs is a good 6% difference from ICM's answer. AKo is 8%. Is that enough to make it a good call?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Any Ace
KJ K10 KQ K9
Q10 QJ
10 10
JJ 99

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you even look at the stack sizes of the other two stacks? Is it worth a 30% chance of finishing with NOTHING when you have at least second basically locked up?

[11t]

I would probably call with AA-JJ.

[fnord_too]

To stand up, I probably push any hand where he has not acted yet. He's not going to call without a big hand, since I am the only one who can hurt him badly.

As to what I call with, meh, the stacks are really skewed here, so I would really have to think about it.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
To stand up, I probably push any hand where he has not acted yet. He's not going to call without a big hand, since I am the only one who can hurt him badly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Into a shortstack who has 2xBB or less left?

Raising his blind on your button with any two is probably a good idea though. What would you call with as the big stack in that situation, same stack sizes?

[Nicholasp27]

i might push first in with 99, but i wouldn't call with 99

i'd be scared to call with aa, cause i basically have 2nd locked up and then i can outplay him hu


why risk even 30% chance of knocked out when i have $300 locked up?

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably call with AA-JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

i'd be scared to call with aa, cause i basically have 2nd locked up and then i can outplay him hu


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you have that much of a skill edge to outplay him HU when Villian is:

1) Tight solid early
2) Good enough to push likely any two here
3) Right now you have nearly a 2:1 chip disadvantage and the longer the bubble continues it will get worse
4) You are willing to fold aces in this spot

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i would push any 2. one reason i think my calling standards would be a little looser than icm is that if you fold here, big stack will likely steal the next blind too (utg will be short in his bb, but will probably fold), and the one after that if no one pre-empts him. big stack can also fold his SB to the short-stack (current SB) to keep the bubble alive and keep robbing your blinds.

if you call and double up, you get to make some bubble steals.

[/ QUOTE ]

AKs is a good 6% difference from ICM's answer. AKo is 8%. Is that enough to make it a good call?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know. maybe AK should be a fold. i was saying i'd call before learning ICM wants .74. my biggest fear here is that the BB will steal from everyone except the short stack, who he'll try his hardest to refund. at least that's what i'd do.

if you call and win, you have a very high chance for 1st b/c you'll be able do some stealing before it gets HU. if somebody wins a hand before the bubble bursts, it almost doesn't affect you - you just steal the money back and try again. i don't know - it's close with AK.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

i'd be scared to call with aa, cause i basically have 2nd locked up and then i can outplay him hu


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you have that much of a skill edge to outplay a monkey if:

4) You are willing to fold aces in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

[valenzuela]

There two type of players...
1) the ones that get runned over.
2) the ones who think poker is rigged 40% of the time.
I rather be number 1.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

i'd be scared to call with aa, cause i basically have 2nd locked up and then i can outplay him hu


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you have that much of a skill edge to outplay a monkey if:

4) You are willing to fold aces in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

[/ QUOTE ]

nh

[durron597]

I would feel really dumb if I called with AK and lost, because I know it's only the nut no pair.

TT... If villian had a hand like J2 and a J flopped I wouldn't feel as bad.

AK is almost never a dog but it's never a dominating favorite except to smaller aces. TT dominates many more hands.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I would feel really dumb if I called with AK and lost, because I know it's only the nut no pair.

TT... If villian had a hand like J2 and a J flopped I wouldn't feel as bad.

AK is almost never a dog but it's never a dominating favorite except to smaller aces. TT dominates many more hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

also smaller kings. if villain is in fact throwing away the bottom 10% of hands, that doesn't hurt AK at all, but makes TT much less appealing. i'm still not convinced calling with AK is correct, but it's hard to fold as a perceived ~68% favorite getting good pot odds. but oh man are those two short stacks going to be thrilled when you call.

[durron597]

I was actually the Villian in this hand /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

I pushed 82o. The 'hero' thought for awhile and folded, and I was left wondering with how lucky I might have just gotten off, and I wondered what I would have called with if I was in his shoes. I really hate that spot when being the second stack with two tiny stacks.

I thought my push was clear and obvious, and I'm glad the board agreed with me.

Final stacks when the Bubble ended (position names from OP):

UTG: (291 in chips)
Button (durron597): (10148 in chips)
BB ('Hero'): (3061 in chips)

I had an easy walk to first.

---------------

Edit: by the way, I have no problem if the SB calls my push in the OP.

[Nicholasp27]

i wouldn't actually fold aces, or kings

i'd just close my eyes when i did it

point is, i believe it's as tight as tt+, as you really have to have a big edge to make it worth losing ur entire stack when u have such a high % shot at 2nd

Actually, it is correct for villain to push almost everything here, while taking care if you are already in the hand. You're the only one who can seriously dent his stack at this point. If you have to call one of villain's raises, you should have JJ or better. Folding AK, AQ, AJ, etc is not that difficult in this situation. The opposite would be true, though, if you were one of the shorties.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are chip leader, do you push any two here?

Top 90% of hands?

Top 80%? Top 50%

[/ QUOTE ]

With you (a good player with the 2nd stack) in the BB? I think any 2 is a good push. I would lay off with the shorties in the BB since they will call a lot.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]


With you (a good player with the 2nd stack) in the BB? I think any 2 is a good push. I would lay off with the shorties in the BB since they will call a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read the results post? /images/graemlins/grin.gif This is one of those "inverted" threads. I thought it was much more interesting from my opponent's perspective than from mine.

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
I was actually the Villian in this hand /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

I pushed 82o. The 'hero' thought for awhile and folded, and I was left wondering with how lucky I might have just gotten off, and I wondered what I would have called with if I was in his shoes. I really hate that spot when being the second stack with two tiny stacks.

I thought my push was clear and obvious, and I'm glad the board agreed with me.

Final stacks when the Bubble ended (position names from OP):

UTG: (291 in chips)
Button (durron597): (10148 in chips)
BB ('Hero'): (3061 in chips)

I had an easy walk to first.

---------------

Edit: by the way, I have no problem if the SB calls my push in the OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

was wondering why you were defending the villian's heads up ability a few posts back /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

was wondering why you were defending the villian's heads up ability a few posts back /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/cool.gif

Actually I was more dissing the guy who says he folds aces here.

[Nicholasp27]

i said i'd be scared to call with aces...i'd never actually fold aces preflop, unless it was bubble and all itm got same prize (ie tourney bid)

i was just trying to say (didn't make it clear enough tho) that my instinct agrees with the tightness that icm specifies

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
i said i'd be scared to call with aces...i'd never actually fold aces preflop, unless it was bubble and all itm got same prize (ie tourney bid)

i was just trying to say (didn't make it clear enough tho) that my instinct agrees with the tightness that icm specifies

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling with Aces (as opposed to folding them) improves my tournament equity by nearly a half buyin (about $6.80 in Sklansky dollars) according to pure ICM, not to mention the fact that the times Hero doubles up Hero has a great chip position for bullying the table.

I would call with aces in a flash and smile all the way to the bank. No fear whatsoever.

[Nicholasp27]

yeah, it's obviously +ev to call with aces

i'd be scared because if i'm out, that's $300 and i wouldn't wanna lose that, but i'd do it anyway because it's the right play...the fact that i'd be scared to lose that is why i play 10/1 and not 100/9 right now

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
the fact that i'd be scared to lose that is why i play 10/1 and not 100/9 right now

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have fear with that big of an edge you need to seriously reevaluate your game. An 85/15 edge should never ever ever cause you fear.

I have fear when the pot is laying me 1.6:1 and I'm a 45% dog and Villian has me covered. "Aw [censored] I must call but I don't even win half the time..."

And fyi, this was a $16 turbo on Stars.

[Nicholasp27]

when your entire br is $300, another $300 from folding looks pretty tempting

i get the point about not fearing edges, and i wouldn't knowingly give up an edge just to reduce variance...but i would still be scared at giving up an almost guaranteed $300

hopefully by the time i graduate to the higher levels i won't have that fear anymore

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
when your entire br is $300, another $300 from folding looks pretty tempting


[/ QUOTE ]

Still don't know where you got $300 from, this was a $16...