Playing overpair versus PF cap

I'm never sure now to play such a hand.

I usually figure I'm beat but call down because the pot is fairly large.

UTG is a fish
CO is solid player 17/14/4

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

River: (10.16 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.16 BB

Should I checkraise the flop and if I get 3 bet fold the turn?

[Webster]

Loks good to me - many many times I see someone capping with AKo. You have top paor and peobebly against pockets . . .OR AK.

Grinderswarehouse - NOT just another BLOG (http://www.grinderswarehouse.com)

[Nick C]

I don't like checkraising the flop much. You're not in good position to put pressure on UTG, and if you happen to be ahead, he's probably sharing at least one overcard (an ace) with CO anyway (and you're not getting rid of both opponents before the river).

I don't really see what else you can do. CO's aggression factor of 4 kind of suggests he's firing the whole way with AK, if that's what he has.

But you're probably beat.

I don't think check-folding the turn would be horrible, but I would call down. Among other things, a PFR percentage of 14 is fairly high.

[jjacky]

what't the PFR of the fish?
i would check call the flop and fold the turn. CO might have AK, but probably he has AA, KK, QQ and you have not much of a chance to win, unless you hit a set or a backdoor str8.

Sorry stats for the fish were 50/9/0.6

[sy_or_bust]

This is OK. The pot is big enough that you only need to catch CO on overs a small % of the time, though I'm pretty sure you're beat and can fold the turn - CO's turn bet is terrible unless he has a made hand. In any case, raising at any point isn't particularly useful.

[crunchy1]

Is the fish calling another 2-cold on the flop? If not, I like leading into CO in an effort to get HU.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
i would check call the flop and fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I assume you say this only because of the backdoor straight possibilities? If not for that, I don't really see a point in continuing past the flop expecting to need to hit one of 2 outs to win.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i would check call the flop and fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I assume you say this only because of the backdoor straight possibilities? If not for that, I don't really see a point in continuing past the flop expecting to need to hit one of 2 outs to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

the backdoor straight makes the decission easier. my reasons to call the flop are:

1. implied odds if we hit the set
2. there is a (small) chance that it gets checked around.
3. the 2 way backdoor str8 adds 1 additional out. giving us good enough pot odds to continue

without the BDSD it would be close, with the added out it's an easy call i think.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
Is the fish calling another 2-cold on the flop? If not, I like leading into CO in an effort to get HU.

[/ QUOTE ]

if CO raises us, we are almost certainly behind. that's why i don't see the value of a heads up confrontation.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
This is OK. The pot is big enough that you only need to catch CO on overs a small % of the time, though I'm pretty sure you're beat and can fold the turn

[/ QUOTE ]
Folding the turn is horrible with 9BBs in the pot. You only have to be winning 1 in 5 to show a profit (assuming another bet goes in the river). A 4PFA is betting AK on the turn here pretty much all the time. If you think he'll cap PF on AA-JJ and AK then about 40% of the time he has AK which is way more than the 20% you need.

[ QUOTE ]
CO's turn bet is terrible unless he has a made hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
With such a ragged flop and a big pot, overcards will generally be calling a single flop bet. The combination of already being ahead, up to 6 outs, folding out overcards that might pass you on the river, and getting a free showdown make this a decent bet.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is the fish calling another 2-cold on the flop? If not, I like leading into CO in an effort to get HU.

[/ QUOTE ]
if CO raises us, we are almost certainly behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
CO is solid player 17/14/4

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on those numbers - I dispute your assumption.

[thejameser]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is the fish calling another 2-cold on the flop? If not, I like leading into CO in an effort to get HU.

[/ QUOTE ]
if CO raises us, we are almost certainly behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
CO is solid player 17/14/4

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on those numbers - I dispute your assumption.

[/ QUOTE ]

i CERTAINLY agree with this. how many hands did that read entail?

[Bluffoon]

I think you have to bet this flop to at least try to fold somebody out.

You are against a fish and an aggressive preflop raiser. I am going to assume my TT has a chance until I see some serious resistance.

[thejameser]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to bet this flop to at least try to fold somebody out.

You are against a fish and an aggressive preflop raiser. I am going to assume my TT has a chance until I see some serious resistance.

[/ QUOTE ]

the aggro factor of CO will ensure resistance, but how much stock can you put in it?

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is the fish calling another 2-cold on the flop? If not, I like leading into CO in an effort to get HU.

[/ QUOTE ]
if CO raises us, we are almost certainly behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
CO is solid player 17/14/4

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on those numbers - I dispute your assumption.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you think he is sufficiently agressive to cap it preflop with AK (or even AQ???) and to raise again with just overcards, when we bet into him again?

ok, i have only 9% PFR, but i would muck the AKo preflop.

[Bluffoon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to bet this flop to at least try to fold somebody out.

You are against a fish and an aggressive preflop raiser. I am going to assume my TT has a chance until I see some serious resistance.

[/ QUOTE ]

the aggro factor of CO will ensure resistance, but how much stock can you put in it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Scenario 1. I bet, CO raises and UTG reraises. I fold.

Scenario 2. I bet, CO raises and UTG folds. I call and see the turn card, go from there.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
CO is solid player 17/14/4

[/ QUOTE ]
Based on those numbers - I dispute your assumption.

[/ QUOTE ]
do you think he is sufficiently agressive to cap it preflop with AK (or even AQ???) and to raise again with just overcards, when we bet into him again?

[/ QUOTE ]
That's exactly what I'm trying to assert.

[ QUOTE ]
ok, i have only 9% PFR, but i would muck the AKo preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you stating that you would fold AKo in this hand if you were the CO? I think that would qualify as a "Crime against humanity"?

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
CO is solid player 17/14/4

[/ QUOTE ]
Based on those numbers - I dispute your assumption.

[/ QUOTE ]
do you think he is sufficiently agressive to cap it preflop with AK (or even AQ???) and to raise again with just overcards, when we bet into him again?

[/ QUOTE ]
That's exactly what I'm trying to assert.

[ QUOTE ]
ok, i have only 9% PFR, but i would muck the AKo preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you stating that you would fold AKo in this hand if you were the CO? I think that would qualify as a "Crime against humanity"?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think i would follow the tight game chart in SSHE.

[SoSo]

Check-raising the flop will set up ur play for the rest of the hand u can save urself a load of bets in the longterm against this sort of player

[ThisHo]

[ QUOTE ]
Check-raising the flop will set up ur play for the rest of the hand u can save urself a load of bets in the longterm against this sort of player

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm intrigued by this line of thinking but I don't understand it. Can you expand?

Thanks,
ThisHo

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
i think i would follow the tight game chart in SSHE.

[/ QUOTE ]
The FISH is a 50% VP$IP with a 9% PFR. Assuming that Hero is a TAG - there's an awfully wide range of hands he could be 3-bet isolating this FISH with. This is an easy, easy PF cap if you're the CO. You want the button. You want to knock out the blinds and play this 3-ways. And you want the initiative in the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
how many hands did that read entail?

[/ QUOTE ]

The 17/14/4 stats was from around 200 hands at the time. But I felt he was a rather aggresive but thinking player. Even though I was behind it was worth calling down for the 20% chance my TT was good.

[J. Sawyer]

i think calling down in these situations is highly over-rated

Thanks for your replies everyone. Villian had JJ /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think i would follow the tight game chart in SSHE.

[/ QUOTE ]
The FISH is a 50% VP$IP with a 9% PFR. Assuming that Hero is a TAG - there's an awfully wide range of hands he could be 3-bet isolating this FISH with. This is an easy, easy PF cap if you're the CO. You want the button. You want to knock out the blinds and play this 3-ways. And you want the initiative in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

the VPIP is irelevant here. the PFR determines his raising range and that is probably pretty much the one given in SSHE (maybe he doesn't understand the concept of position, what would make it broader. but even most fish are tighter UTG and in very early position). then he sees me reraising a raiser with a normal range. that means i have AA-TT or AK. he would do better to throw away his AK (with a pot equity of less than 30%, given my ranges).

[OnkelHotte]

imo this is a clear flop bet. cooperate with CO to kick the fish. if CO only calls the flop I would bet/fold turn!

[Lurkmaster Flex]

bleh misread original post, is close between bet into pfr and check call down