Can i call here?

[Jay36489]

55s

Can I call here? Should I? Villian is average player.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Hero (t1860)
UTG (t1535)
MP1 (t930)
MP2 (t590)
CO (t2530)
Button (t1175)
SB (t1380)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t200</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t150.


Flop: (t425) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Villian pushes, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t425

His bet is screaming overpair. If my A and K is live 15 outs is good, but if hes got kings or aces I'm not in good shape. I'm getting about 1.25:1. I almost insta folded but stopped to think and figured just wait for a better spot. Thoughts?

[lastchance]

I'm assuming you were planning on check-shoving this flop, because that's the best line, and it's not close.

I think I call here, pretty quickly. You've got at least 12 outs (9 to the nuts, and 6 1/2 outs for aces and kings). I think that's enough.

[DJ Sensei]

I think a high PP is a very tight-weak read on villain. He could easily have 2 overcards here, or be on a complete steal. He did open raise from the CO. When you check, he sees weakness. His flop bet is very aggressive, but it could well be a flush draw itself (Q /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif blind steal turned flush draw, perhaps?)

I think you are a favorite postflop in this hand more often than not, and as such a call here is definitely in order.

[unreal_nh]

push preflop

[Jay36489]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming you were planning on check-shoving this flop, because that's the best line, and it's not close.

I think I call here, pretty quickly. You've got at least 12 outs (9 to the nuts, and 6 1/2 outs for aces and kings). I think that's enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking of check raise as a semi bluff, but when he pushed FE went out the window. With getting 1.25:1 on my call, 12 outs is only 1.2:1. 15 outs is certainly an autocall.

[Jay36489]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a high PP is a very tight-weak read on villain. He could easily have 2 overcards here, or be on a complete steal. He did open raise from the CO. When you check, he sees weakness. His flop bet is very aggressive, but it could well be a flush draw itself (Q /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif blind steal turned flush draw, perhaps?)

I think you are a favorite postflop in this hand more often than not, and as such a call here is definitely in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my read, and I'm sticking with it. AFter all, Im the one that was playing with him /images/graemlins/wink.gif Some people are very aggressive with a made hand because they hate when they get drawn out on. He seemed like that type. I don't think he was the type to make that bet on a semi bluff. He was pretty straight forward.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
His bet is screaming overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. I think there is a pretty good chance that your hand was good (at least for a split) even without hitting your draws.

[durron597]

You are either a small favorite or a big favorite here most of the time unless he has exactly a hand like 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif

[Jay36489]

Ok, I think I was probably a small favorite then, and I'll call this next time. Still though, it's almost a coin flip. Is there anything wrong with waiting for a better spot? I did end up winning this one.

And I can't believe people are just saying my read is wrong. I make as many specific reads as possible, even while 4 tabling. I'm sure some formulaic system could be profitable with the level of competition, but if you make specific reads, you have to go with them. Otherwise you are just playing the cards.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I think I was probably a small favorite then, and I'll call this next time. Still though, it's almost a coin flip. Is there anything wrong with waiting for a better spot? I did end up winning this one.

And I can't believe people are just saying my read is wrong. I make as many specific reads as possible, even while 4 tabling. I'm sure some formulaic system could be profitable with the level of competition, but if you make specific reads, you have to go with them. Otherwise you are just playing the cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

i would say your hand was a substantial favorite against his range. he will very often have no pair.

[Jay36489]

Against most people, yes. The only reason I am being stubborn here is I did have a very specific read on him.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Against most people, yes. The only reason I am being stubborn here is I did have a very specific read on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhhhh!!!!!!!!!!! Don't post this later. This MUST MUST MUST MUST MUST be in the OP. What you said instead was...

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is average player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on, man....

[Jay36489]

You're right. I should have been more specific in my first post in that the read was strong. I just mentioned that I really thought he had an overpair etc... my bad

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
You're right. I should have been more specific in my first post in that the read was strong. I just mentioned that I really thought he had an overpair etc... my bad

[/ QUOTE ]

And by the way, you are a favorite against red queens on this board.

[skierdude1000]

you should've bet the flop

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against most people, yes. The only reason I am being stubborn here is I did have a very specific read on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhhhh!!!!!!!!!!! Don't post this later. This MUST MUST MUST MUST MUST be in the OP. What you said instead was...

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is average player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on, man....

[/ QUOTE ]

i was about to post the same thing....

to the op, it's not enough to say "i really thought he had an overpair."

it's much more useful to say something like "two other times he had made big overbets on the flop and both times had a very strong hand." then we know there's substance behind it instead of a "feeling" / read in hindsight.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
you should've bet the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

i like a c/r much better.

[Jay36489]

You're right. I try and pay particular attention not only when people showdown big pots, but when people check raised pots the whole way, and no one takes a shot. If I remember right, that was my read on him.