Nut flush draw + gutshot + pair against a LAG and an unknown [Archive]

View Full Version : Nut flush draw + gutshot + pair against a LAG and an unknown

TheRempel

07-20-2005, 03:45 AM

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $2 BB (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 ($105.30)
CO ($304.60)
Button ($127.05)
SB ($158.70)
Hero ($317.55)
UTG ($686.30)
MP1 ($475.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $2, MP1 raises to $9, 1 fold, CO calls $9, Button calls $9, SB calls $8, Hero calls $7, UTG calls $7.

Yes this is a garbage hand in any position and I can't really justify playing it.
Flop: ($54) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $51.3, MP1 calls $51.30, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls $51.30.

Here's where I ran into trouble. MP1 is a very stupidly LAG player and the entire table play has changed to try and take his money. Lots of people are getting very aggressive with two pair. I thought that the UTG player most likely had two pair with some sort of draw. I seriously considered pushing the flop.

Turn: ($207.90) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $204.9, MP1 raises to $409.8, Hero folds, UTG calls $204.90.

Obviously can't call here but I feel I could have avoided this if I pushed the flop when i am certain I was the favorite.
River: ($1027.50) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $216.2 (All-In), MP1 calls $5.85 (All-In).

Final Pot: $1249.55

Results in white below: 
UTG has Td 3c Qh 8h (flush, king high).
MP1 has Tc 6c 5d Ad (straight, six high).
Outcome: UTG wins $1249.55.

joewatch

07-20-2005, 04:20 AM

I think the preflop call is OK given the hand is multiway and you have straight+flushing possibilities, although it is impossible to flop the nut flush without a perfect A25.

I would have folded the flop as you are only getting 3:1 on your nut flush draw. If you really wanted to play this hand, I think you should have lead the flop, hoping to be raised, then re-raise all in.

What happened to your TAG game Rempel? If this were $100, I'm sure you would have lead/raised the flop. Check-call is weak, and you know it!

TheRempel

07-20-2005, 06:05 AM

I know! I played this hand totally backwards. If I'd had position, I would have raised the flop all in. I still should have went for it, but hindsight is 20/20, I guess.

Tilt

07-20-2005, 09:26 AM

I really don't like the preflop call, cause your hand is mainly for flush value (with some straight potential), and you are going to be out of position when you play it. I'd rather be playing a decent pair under these conditions than a flush draw. Its cheaper to get away from.

Given that the flop is one of the best you could hope for I would c/r and seek to get all in. A check/call is not appropriate as you don't have implied odds to call for a single card. Are they really gonna pay you well if you spike a flush on the turn? Probably not unless they are total donkeys.

07-20-2005, 11:45 AM

This is probably a dumb question. But why is attempting to get all-in on the flop ok given that calling w/3:1 is not?

Tilt

07-20-2005, 12:09 PM

If you call you are playing for a single card, cause you wont have odds on the turn. You have 12 outs at best, and that is being optimistic as some of these outs may be compromised or may lead to a split. If you call you at best case you are 1 in 4 to hit. So at best you have an EV of 0 proposition in calling, assuming they wont pay you off if you do hit.

You go all in, and you add the potential that they will fold, and if they call you make the chances that you will hit much greater with two cards to come. Much greater EV.