Two respected posters disagree

[DrPublo]

I hope I'm not going too far in my use of the word respected .

Here's the situation. PP 100NL 6max. I start the hand with about $95, SB and BB both cover me but not by much (so its not like they can play a big sidepot against each other).

Two limps, and I limp 22 on the button. SB raises to $4, BB calls, the limpers fold and I call.

Flop ($15): 2s 8d Qd

SB leads for $15. BB calls.

The question is how much to raise to? I argued for a push, but a very respected poster on this forum recommended a much smaller raise, to about $40 with the intention of getting all in on any turn. I'll let this respected poster identify himself and explain his reasoning.

Whats your raise and why?

Thanks in advance for any feedback.

The Doc

[LethalRose]

I call the flop and hope the SB bets and BB calls.

then push. I want to keep the BB in this hand and extract chips from him, raising allows him to get off his hand.

[ghostface]

And when the turn comes unpairing diamond and one of them pushes how would you feel about the flop call?

I like the small raise and I also like the push. But what you do depends on your read of the SB. I favor the push in this situation more than others mainly because, I've seen a ton of players minraise AQ and KQ OOP. These are the same players that overplay top pair and a push will often be called.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I agree with the other poster. A small raise is best. It's unlikely that he is on a draw and you want to maximize your earn against a worse made hand. Forget the draw. Play as if he has top pair, which is his most likely hand here. Raise smallish and get it all in on the turn.

[TrailofTears]

A smallish raise is the same as a call. Either way when the betting gets to you on the turn, a push is just a pot bet.

I like a push, especially with the flush draw out there. Not because I fear the flush draw, but because it is more likely that they will call your push.

-T

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
It's unlikely that he is on a draw

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree. SB led for pot and the BB cold-called. One of them should have a pretty big piece or draw, if not SB then DEFINITELY the BB. I think I can expect one of them to play back at me a substantial percentage of the time.

Also, assume you're right and neither one is one the draw. Let's say I make a small raise or even just call and a diamond slides off. How am I going to get paid off, and how will I even know it's still safe to put my money in? Bear in mind that even if I just call, the pot is going to be $60 going into the turn.

The Doc

[swolfe]

EDIT: nevermind, i can't read. your call makes the pot $60 and so a pot sized raise would make it $75 to go. you only have $91 left, so the push is right.

i didn't notice the caller in the middle.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Doesnt matter what comes on the turn, you are obviously committing yourself by raising the flop. But the point is to make sure you keep in hands that are drawing near dead even at the expense of potentially letting someone in somewhat cheaply with a draw. By raising small, you are betting that either someone doesn't have the flush draw, or if they do, this time will be one of the 3/4 of the time that it doesn't hit on the turn. In exchange for that, you make it more likely to keep made hands in that you for sure want to stay in. Pushing here is a big raise. There is a good chance weaker made hands will fold. It is not worth taking that risk to protect against a draw three handed.

[Wayfare]

I am by no means staking my poker reputation on this hand, but I think that the raise to $40 is correct for the reasons below. If I have a significant mistake in there, please tell me. Also this is assuming $100 6-max on party poker, and does not apply to live games or whatever.

The reason why I like the $40 raise instead of a push is due to several reasons. By pushing you give horrendous odds for a flush draw to call, probably so horrendous he will not call. Then you win the pot as it stands. You will also probably not get action from a high pair unless it is AQ, and even then you will probably not get a call (at least from my experience, but this is player dependent). A raise of that amount is very safe provided they do not have an overset, but it doesn’t cause any fish to make any mistakes.

By raising to $40 you can charge the flush draw $25 to see one more street. This is a 17% shot on the turn, i.e. a diamond turn that doesn’t pair the board. The rest of the time you will then push the turn and the pot will be big enough that he will likely make another mathematical mistake and call since the pot is so large. You also get KQ and AQ to come with you almost for sure since those party guys don’t lay down TPTK for that type of raise. The good news is they are drawing dead. The overlay that you get from the made hands that come along drawing dead (should) more than make up for the better odds that a flush draw has due to the third player being in the hand. The only time that you will regret the raise to $40 is if three things simultaneously happen: the turn comes an unpaired diamond, (17%), the opponent completes a flush draw (let’s say 40%), AND you don’t pair the board on the end (78% of the time the previous two statements are true).

My raise to $40 is designed to play a three way, $300 pot on the turn with one player possibly drawing dead. I have done a little scenario analysis underneath, but it is not as cut and dry as it should be.






Actions on flop:

1: Push. Your callers include: QQ and 88, AA, KK. Folders include all else. Likely result is that you will win pot at the time, which is $45

2: Call. Your action is done for round.

3: Raise to $40. People who push include QQ, 88, maybe flush draws. If flush draw pushes you will have 74% equity in the money in the middle, plus overlay of the third guy’s bet. Most likely the third guy will bow out, but since he is drawing dead to AQ/KQ etc., you want him in with these hands.


If Turn is diamond that doesn’t pair board, one or two caller: (~17%):

2: You called on the flop, you need to evaluate the action coming to you. I would strongly consider folding to a large bet here. You probably won’t get odds to redraw (22%). I like this line the least because it leaves a medium sized pot on the turn with some money left to play, and two unknown hands playing with you. You should try to get it all in on the turn.

3: You raised to $40. The pot will be $110 with one caller and $135 with two callers. You may see a push from a lone high diamond / pair combination, and you will only have ~$50 left, meaning that you will get better than 160:50 on a call. You also have 22% redraw equity. You call here.

If turn is paired board / you hit quads (~11% of time)

If you see any action on this board, then the pot will be so big and you will be so strong that it should not be hard to get all in. Trap the other players with a small bet if checked to, thus that they will not be able to fold any river. If they bet to you try to keep all three players in. Obviously if it’s heads up you can’t keep all three people in.

If turn is blank, non diamond and non paired board. (72% of the time)

This is where you make your money. If the pot is $135 and three way, you will get your money in here easily. AQ first to call your raise will have $50 back to him getting 185:50 and will say screw it and call. A diamond draw will then have 235:50 on his call provided he is last to act. Here is twodimes on a diamond draw:

pokenum -h ad kd - 2c 2h -- 2s 8d qd 3s
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 3s 2s Qd 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 7 15.91 37 84.09 0 0.00 0.159
2c 2h 37 84.09 7 15.91 0 0.00 0.841

This says he has 16% equity in that pot. His call is a small mistake, as it was on the turn. The upshot is that you probably got the third guy to come with if he had any type of hand, an opportunity that you would not have had if you had pushed the flop.

[TrailofTears]

Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[DrPublo]

Dave,

Raising for $40 here is essentially a min-bet, especially given the trapped caller. The SB would be getting 85:25 immediate odds and the BB, if the SB calls, would be getting a SWEET 110:25 odds. That's not steep for any sort of draw at all.

In addition, I don't think there are nearly as many blank turns as you do. Potentially, I don't want to see any diamond, 9, T, J, and maybe A or K. Nearly half the deck could leave me in an uncomfortable situation. Say the turn is the 9h and the BB pushes. Now what?

I also feel like most of the hands that will call a raise to $40 will also call a raise to $60, and that if they will call that much they also much call my push. I was counting on my opponents in this hand understanding that the only reasonable raise I can make here protecting any sort of hand is a push (i.e. I can't raise to $60 and leave $30 behind), and thus discount my push slightly. In addition, I suspected a flop push may look like a semi-bluff diamond draw and coerce a call out of AQ or better (and stubborn JJ sometimes as well).

Considering that I am generally so aggro, I feel like this play is entirely consistent with my image and therefore good for the metagame.

I strongly back pushing here. I wonder how things change if the board is 2d 8d Qx, and now AdQd is a possibility for either of the villains.

The Doc

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

You are also treating the problem as if there are no dead money considerations AND there is a flush draw out there, which is the worst (and probably the least likely) of the scenerios.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

This analysis neglects the times the turn completes the flush and I'm faced with a push in front of me. Then I'm getting 185:50 (assuming BB, who's most likely to have the draw, pushes after an SB check) to fill, which doesn't give ME odds to draw. And yet I'm not folding a set in a monster pot after getting 1/2 my stack in on the flop.

The Doc

The Doc

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
Dave,

Raising for $40 here is essentially a min-bet, especially given the trapped caller. The SB would be getting 85:25 immediate odds and the BB, if the SB calls, would be getting a SWEET 110:25 odds. That's not steep for any sort of draw at all.

In addition, I don't think there are nearly as many blank turns as you do. Potentially, I don't want to see any diamond, 9, T, J, and maybe A or K. Nearly half the deck could leave me in an uncomfortable situation. Say the turn is the 9h and the BB pushes. Now what?

I also feel like most of the hands that will call a raise to $40 will also call a raise to $60, and that if they will call that much they also much call my push. I was counting on my opponents in this hand understanding that the only reasonable raise I can make here protecting any sort of hand is a push (i.e. I can't raise to $60 and leave $30 behind), and thus discount my push slightly. In addition, I suspected a flop push may look like a semi-bluff diamond draw and coerce a call out of AQ or better (and stubborn JJ sometimes as well).

Considering that I am generally so aggro, I feel like this play is entirely consistent with my image and therefore good for the metagame.

I strongly back pushing here. I wonder how things change if the board is 2d 8d Qx, and now AdQd is a possibility for either of the villains.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

I am skeptical that for these stack sizes and this board, the optimal line is to make a raise by which NO hand you beat will call you. That is so counter intuitive that I will need a lot of convincing to make me believe it.

If the 9h comes off I instacall a push.

[DrPublo]

Dave,

I think it's bad to raise to roughly half your stack. Are you really going to fold to a turn diamond? If you're going to raise to half the stack, put it all in--that's an old NL credo, and assuming the other players in the hand know this too, they must discount the strength implied by my push.

The Doc

[Proofrock]

I lean towards a push. At least one of them has a hand, and often enough at this level an all-in on a flush draw board will be interpreted as a semi-bluff and get paid off.

Raising to 40, on the other hand, clearly announces that you have a hand and makes it easier for other players to get away from -- if i have AA here and you make a reasonable raise after a pot-sized raise and a cold call, I'm much more worried than if you had pushed.

-cj

[Wayfare]

I wish you hadn't signed off of IM, and where is that essay by sklansky that is titled "should you let him in?"

I can't find the damn thing.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
I am skeptical that for these stack sizes and this board, the optimal line is to make a raise by which NO hand you beat will call you.

[/ QUOTE ]

AdKd calls in a heartbeat.
AxAd also likely calls.
KxKd calls at least half the time.
AdQx calls probably 20% of the time.
TdJd sometimes calls, as does 9dTd and 9dJd.

Add more hands to the above listing for extra bad PP 100NL players as appropriate...

The Doc

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
I wish you hadn't signed off of IM, and where is that essay by sklansky that is titled "should you let him in?"

I can't find the damn thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I changed computers to put together my PT numbers for the night and do some other bookkeeping.

The Doc

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 40 = 15+40+40+40=135. Your turn bet of ~50 gives the flush draw odds of 50 to win at least 235, which is ~4.6:1. The flush needs 42/7= ~6:1 to call, which is slightly incorrect, even if the other player comes along, which brings the odds from 235:50 to 285:50, or 5.7:1. Close, but still incorrect.

Either way you aren't giving correct odds to the other players.

This may be my first math post ever, so I'm sorry if I am incorrect here. I guess I wanted to work it out to see if the tiny raise would allow correct odds for the flush draw on the turn, but it doesn't.

I suppose that this is empirical evidence that the raise to 40 is better, but I don't think the push is terrible by any means. We do, however, look for the optimal line.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

This analysis neglects the times the turn completes the flush and I'm faced with a push in front of me. Then I'm getting 185:50 (assuming BB, who's most likely to have the draw, pushes after an SB check) to fill, which doesn't give ME odds to draw. And yet I'm not folding a set in a monster pot after getting 1/2 my stack in on the flop.

The Doc

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get 185:50? If the pot is 135 after the flop, BB pushes (essentially) for 50, you are calling 50 to win 235, which is almost 5:1, what you need to redraw with your ten outs, no?

-T

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you get 185:50? If the pot is 135 after the flop, BB pushes (essentially) for 50, you are calling 50 to win 235, which is almost 5:1, what you need to redraw with your eleven outs, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

First, its 10 outs to fill or better. 3 Qs, 3 8s, 3 of the flush-making card, and one deuce.

Secondly, you're doing the pot odds wrong. I'm calling 50 to win 185, not 235 (which includes my 50 call). Lets say I"m 4:1 against, which is roughly right.

I lose $50 4 times, for a net of -$200.
I win $185 once, for a net of $185.

Sum = -$15, averaged over 5 runs is a net of -$3/call if I call the turn getting 185:50.

The Doc

[TrailofTears]

I can't even do math after being up for 48 straight hours. Work is hell these days. Sorry Doc.

EDIT: I shouldn't have done my first math post tonight. I'll try this again tomorrow. Off to hit the hay like the donkey that I am.

[srm80]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am skeptical that for these stack sizes and this board, the optimal line is to make a raise by which NO hand you beat will call you.

[/ QUOTE ]

AdKd calls in a heartbeat.
AxAd also likely calls.
KxKd calls at least half the time.
AdQx calls probably 20% of the time.
TdJd sometimes calls, as does 9dTd and 9dJd.

Add more hands to the above listing for extra bad PP 100NL players as appropriate...

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

just curious as to why you would think the diamond draw would call in a heartbeat to 75 more dollars but AA and KK only call some of the time? Wouldn't you rather have AA and KK call ALL the time, and instead of AQ calling 20% of the time, the 40 raise might bump that up to 50 or 60% of the time. And even if the BB called with the diamond draw after the SB called with his hand drawing dead, your hand would not mind since it is a mistake for the draw to call and you have such a big pot edge against your two opponents. When the turn hits you know you will be going all in, and since the AA, KK, or AQ called your reraise on the flop they will call your all in push for the 50. Plus, in the situations where the diamond hits that also pairs the board, you will still get action from the diamond draw even though you might not from the hands drawing dead. The raise to 40 looks like a win win situation. Great post by wayfare. I would like to read that Sklansky article by the way...

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
You are also treating the problem as if there are no dead money considerations AND there is a flush draw out there, which is the worst (and probably the least likely) of the scenerios.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never intended for my post to imply that I had forgotten about the dead money.

[teamdonkey]

If a push only folds hands you want in and gets called by hands that beat you, and a raise gives both players correct odds to call, then why do either?

There's always some value in deception. If you're the SB with AQ here, and you see the button just call, what do you put him on?

A good decision should be much easier to make on the turn with the pot still small enough that you can get away from it.

[srm80]

with the raise, one player would be drawing virtually dead unless they had a higher set which isn't a likely situation, and wayfare pointed out that the draw would not be getting correct odds to call and would be making a mistake by staying in.

[Publos Nemesis]

[ QUOTE ]
Dave,

I think it's bad to raise to roughly half your stack. Are you really going to fold to a turn diamond? If you're going to raise to half the stack, put it all in--that's an old NL credo, and assuming the other players in the hand know this too, they must discount the strength implied by my push.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

Given publo's stack size, he has to push. Besides what he says above, another good reason would be that often flush draws will push on the draw. Knowing this, publo's opponents may think he is on a flush draw and call with top pair or the nut flush draw. Given the cold call, publo can reasonably expect one of the two players to have a good hand or draw.

Even if they fold, publo will have saved himself a tough decision on the turn if a diamond had come. Moreover, it's always better to win a small pot than lose a large one.

[srm80]

i think the point in this situation is trying to get the draw (if there is one) to make a mistake by calling and getting the drawing dead hand to call your all in. I just think if you push a flush draw will definitely fold, since obviously if they aren't the player semi-bluffing that move is taken away, and their only option is to fold. So by the pushing logic, the only hand that will call you half of the time is AA, and KK, maybe AQ 1/5 of the time. By raising you can push your pot edge and make more money against a larger range of hands. I just can't see many hands calling the 75 more.

[srm80]

[ QUOTE ]
i think the point in this situation is trying to get the draw (if there is one) to make a mistake by calling and getting the drawing dead hand to call your all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

by all in I mean all-in on the turn. that way you will double up more often than not, and possibly triple up if the flush draw makes the mistake of calling your flop raise of $40. The point is to maximize your profit!

[jakeoneil]

I figure that the only hands that will call an all in of 80 on top here in a 60 dollar pot are 88 and QQ.

Thats just my opinion though, the all in either wins you a small pot or loses you a big one. I like a reraise the size of the pot, to 40 or 45.

[theben]

i dont like it. that puts 1/2 your stack in and puts you in an odd spot on a turn w/ a diamond, which certainly gives you the worst hand. it'll price you as about even money to call should a bad turn hit.

rather than doing that, i like pushing the flop hoping to get it HU against KK+ or just calling the flop and pushing the turn should no diamond fall. if you just call the flop and then push the turn if its safe, you wait to raise when your advantage is bigger and make it cheap and easy to fold on the turn

this goes under the assumption that the players will call with a draw and take one off if you make a small reraise as opposed to pushing

[TheWorstPlayer]

Doc, what if you knew for a fact that the BB did indeed have the flush draw. But you also knew for a fact that he would call all bets with it in this hand (except for the river if he misses). Now, would you rather push on the flop and force him to make a clear mistake, or would you rather make a smaller raise on the flop and then get the rest in on the turn?

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
just curious as to why you would think the diamond draw would call in a heartbeat to 75 more dollars but AA and KK only call some of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

If the nut diamond draw is out there, he's getting 135:75 to call (more obviously if the other player calls sa well). That's almost 2:1. Neither player knows that he's against a set, so they must think that they're a little less than 2:1 against with two cards to come, and possibly have some more outs if an A or K (or running As or Ks) are good as well. I think AKs or AJs often calls at this price and races it, not knowing that they're actually a 3:1 dog.

AA and KK call less often of course because its just a one pair hand and doesn't have nearly as many outs to improve. For example, AA is basically even money with Kd2d on the flop.

The Doc

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the cold call, publo can reasonably expect one of the two players to have a good hand or draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the answer. Well said.

The Doc

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Doc, what if you knew for a fact that the BB did indeed have the flush draw. But you also knew for a fact that he would call all bets with it in this hand (except for the river if he misses). Now, would you rather push on the flop and force him to make a clear mistake, or would you rather make a smaller raise on the flop and then get the rest in on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is he going to push into me on the turn if he hits?

Also, if he doesnt know I have a set, he may estimate as many as 12 outs for himself (9 diamonds and 3 aces, if he's got the nut draw), which means he would call a flop push getting 135:75.

The Doc

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doc, what if you knew for a fact that the BB did indeed have the flush draw. But you also knew for a fact that he would call all bets with it in this hand (except for the river if he misses). Now, would you rather push on the flop and force him to make a clear mistake, or would you rather make a smaller raise on the flop and then get the rest in on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is he going to push into me on the turn if he hits?

Also, if he doesnt know I have a set, he may estimate as many as 12 outs for himself (9 diamonds and 3 aces, if he's got the nut draw), which means he would call a flop push getting 135:75.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]
The point of my question was to illustrate that, under that scenario, you would clearly want to raise small to keep the third guy in. In any case, if the flush hits and you don't fill up, you will be stacked. Even the small raise pot commits you. You will call if the flush hits the turn and the BB pushes - or at least you should. So the only thing that matters on the margin is how big the pot is when you win. And by keeping in the third guy, the pot is larger when you win, so that is the best move. Just acknowledge that you will get stacked when the flush hits. You are simply not deep enough to get away. You should worry more about maximizing winnings when the flush doesn't hit then about protecting your hand against the flush draw which could very well not even be out there.

[Publos Nemesis]

I guess this then becomes a question of mean/variance preference. I think the doc and I would both move all in b/c we would prefer to make it heads up and minimize the amount we lose. We would rather not have to get all in when the flush comes. I respect were you are coming from TWP, but sometimes the most optimal $ EV play is not the best for a given person. I would rather win a small pot than lose a big one when I was ahead. This preference leads me to value in non $ EV moving all in here more than getting it in on the turn.

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doc, what if you knew for a fact that the BB did indeed have the flush draw. But you also knew for a fact that he would call all bets with it in this hand (except for the river if he misses). Now, would you rather push on the flop and force him to make a clear mistake, or would you rather make a smaller raise on the flop and then get the rest in on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is he going to push into me on the turn if he hits?

Also, if he doesnt know I have a set, he may estimate as many as 12 outs for himself (9 diamonds and 3 aces, if he's got the nut draw), which means he would call a flop push getting 135:75.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]
The point of my question was to illustrate that, under that scenario, you would clearly want to raise small to keep the third guy in. In any case, if the flush hits and you don't fill up, you will be stacked. Even the small raise pot commits you. You will call if the flush hits the turn and the BB pushes - or at least you should. So the only thing that matters on the margin is how big the pot is when you win. And by keeping in the third guy, the pot is larger when you win, so that is the best move. Just acknowledge that you will get stacked when the flush hits. You are simply not deep enough to get away. You should worry more about maximizing winnings when the flush doesn't hit then about protecting your hand against the flush draw which could very well not even be out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very well explained. Everyone who agrees with pushing please read this.