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View Full Version : here's one - maybe interesting turn decision


mr pink
07-19-2005, 08:27 PM
UTG is a little loose preflop (limps with crap aces in mp), but seems typical postflop

BB is fairly unknown but seems reasonable. fwiw, when he 3-bet out of the bb, i put him on the standard range.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero ????

Nick C
07-19-2005, 08:43 PM
Ugh. Well, UTG likes his diamond enough to raise with it, and I'd be a little surprised if BB fired into two opponents again without one (I guess he could be betting with a set of tens, though, or as his last contribution to the pot).

So I guess we're hoping one has the queen and the other has the jack, or we're hoping BB is bluffing and UTG has Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif, or we're hoping BB has Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif and UTG is being optimistic with his A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif?

I don't know if I'd actually do it, but I'm kind of thinking folding might be best. In any event, I think I would be deciding between that and calling.

By the way, on the flop, I'd consider raising. It's possible that's reckless, though.

dark_horse
07-19-2005, 08:52 PM
at what point do you stop raising with KQ behind one limper? my KQ play is always changing.. i don't open limp with KQ if not in early position, but these days i'm just limping here. big mistake?

i'm definitely raising the flop. i don't think BB is 3betting you without a made flush. even if he has one he might not 3bet the flop. on the turn i throw up and i have no advice for you.

Carmine
07-19-2005, 09:06 PM
I think I am just calling this to try and bring BB along for the ride with his PP. By calling you collect(possibly) 1BB from the BB on the turn and 2BB from UTG and BB on the river. If we 3-bet the turn we lose BB gaining only 2BB total from UTG. If UTG is bluffing or has just a weak /images/graemlins/diamond.gif we could lose him too. If we 3-bet the turn and it gets capped that would suck because I really want to showdown my hand. The only time (I think) where raising is better is if BB is holding TT and we would be destroying his odds to draw to the FH, but with ten outs that not easy to do.

KDawgCometh
07-19-2005, 09:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]


By the way, on the flop, I'd consider raising. It's possible that's reckless, though.

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't think a flop raise is reckless at all. Well, maybe it is, but I certainly would raise that flop with two overs and the second nutflush draw.

this turn is very interesting. the read on utg here is what makes this a real problem because it is very likely that we are drawing dead right here since utg likes his aces PF regardless of the kicker. I think calling the raise and folding to a cap might be best, but I don't like any option that we have on this hand since raising is chip spewing here



-keith

ArturiusX
07-19-2005, 09:43 PM
[ QUOTE ]
at what point do you stop raising with KQ behind one limper? my KQ play is always changing.. i don't open limp with KQ if not in early position, but these days i'm just limping here. big mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]

I always raise KQ. I want the button, and the value. I dont raise it from the blinds.

KDawgCometh
07-19-2005, 09:50 PM
one limper, I'm raising. our is too good against a sole limper not to raise PF. Two limpers is where I start to consider limping too. Of course that is one of those "it depends" situations. I could very well raise two limpers if I can buy the button. three limpers, I'm limping

brettbrettr
07-19-2005, 10:20 PM
I think I grit my teeth and call here, call river, bet if checked to.

mr pink
07-20-2005, 12:51 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I'd actually do it, but I'm kind of thinking folding might be best. In any event, I think I would be deciding between that and calling.


[/ QUOTE ]

don't you think it's a little unnatural for the nut flush to raise the turn here when there is a potential caller to act behind him? almost everybody slowplays the nuts in this spot. i definitely don't think i can fold, at least not yet.

Clarkmeister
07-20-2005, 01:15 AM
Easy call.

Nick C
07-20-2005, 06:56 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I'd actually do it, but I'm kind of thinking folding might be best. In any event, I think I would be deciding between that and calling.


[/ QUOTE ]

don't you think it's a little unnatural for the nut flush to raise the turn here when there is a potential caller to act behind him? almost everybody slowplays the nuts in this spot. i definitely don't think i can fold, at least not yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think some (though certainly not all) players save their slowplaying for the flop and abandon such ideas on the turn.

So that's my half-hearted attempt to defend what I wrote about folding. Anyway, you make a good argument.

07-20-2005, 07:11 AM
I would have raised this flop.

Call down from the turn but if you get checked to on the river bet.

jjacky
07-20-2005, 07:35 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I'd actually do it, but I'm kind of thinking folding might be best. In any event, I think I would be deciding between that and calling.


[/ QUOTE ]

don't you think it's a little unnatural for the nut flush to raise the turn here when there is a potential caller to act behind him? almost everybody slowplays the nuts in this spot. i definitely don't think i can fold, at least not yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the decission is between calling and folding. i would call. the bet doesn't mean much imo. the raise is very probably from a big diamond, but might very well not be the nuts.
if almost anybody slowplays the nuts on the turn in a situation like this, i am an exception. any set and big diamond will call about any bet and that's why i wouldn't slowplay the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

*edit* and i would raise the flop for a free card.

crunchy1
07-20-2005, 09:27 AM
[ QUOTE ]
i would raise the flop for value.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

thejameser
07-20-2005, 10:46 AM
oh, i had a question. say you call, which is the appropriate play i think, the river is a rag and it is checked to you. do you bet?

Nick C
07-20-2005, 05:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i would raise the flop for value.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

It is possibly for value, but I think there are other reasons to raise.

The reason I say it's only "possibly" for value, even though we have a 2nd nut flush draw, two overcards, and a gutshot, is that there's a preflop 3-bettor with an approximate AA-TT/AK range in the hand. (Possibly it's wider, especially if BB was trying to get heads-up with his preflop 3-bet, but I suspect most 3/6 players will just 3-bet whatever they usually 3-bet in this spot preflop.)

Also, a one-card flush draw to the king is not as strong as a high two-card flush draw. If the ace of diamonds happens to be out there (and it's fair to assume, for instance, that BB has high cards, and we know UTG loves to play aces), then that cuts into our equity substantially. I'm certainly not assuming a better flush draw is out there, but it will be sometimes, and not all that infrequently. (BB did 3-bet preflop, and UTG found some reason to call the flop.)

Within the (admittedly rather narrow) range I gave BB, the value of our overcards is compromised. Only versus JJ are both overcards good, and catching an overcard will in many cases just give us a second-best hand.

So, yeah, with our 17 uncertain outs, we'll improve to TPGK, a straight, or a flush almost 60 percent of the time, but . . .

Hmm. You know, on second thought, I'm thinking a raise probably is a pretty solid value raise. I'm not sure how much we should discount our outs, but discounting them past 9 would be a bit much, I think.

Since BB has represented a big hand, there is some danger of getting 3-bet and (if UTG then folds) ending up heads-up versus that big hand, possibly with very few outs.

But, also, he might even fold a diamondless AK, or maybe UTG will now fold (you never know), and we'll have a shot at taking down the pot with a turn semi-bluff. (Hmm. This paragraph is starting to seem very optimistic to me.)

I guess one question becomes, if we raise the flop and are just called and go the turn 3-handed, do we fire again on the turn if checked to on a blank? I'm not sure.

But I think I do like a flop raise.

Nick C
07-20-2005, 05:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
oh, i had a question. say you call, which is the appropriate play i think, the river is a rag and it is checked to you. do you bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would.

Mister Z
07-20-2005, 05:39 PM
I like the call on the flop because if you catch a diamond on the turn you will probably be bet into again. However I'm having a hard time putting BB on a hand that doesn't have the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif in it. I would probably call here as I think YHIG enough of the time to merit calling, and am betting if checked to. Tough call for me.

deception5
07-20-2005, 06:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
oh, i had a question. say you call, which is the appropriate play i think, the river is a rag and it is checked to you. do you bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would. I think it would be extremely risky for the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif to go for a check/raise here and I'm definitely charging a lower flush draw.