AJs in a big multi-way pot....

[meep_42]

This hand was about a month ago, but in going through the HH, I don't see anyone that's really out of line in this hand, so we'll go readless on this one...

Do you go to the mat here? What's your river plan on a non-/images/graemlins/spade.gif?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (14.16 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, Hero...

-d

[mantasm]

3bet. You may have the best hand now, and if you don't you have all 9 flush outs (none pair the board) and 4 boat outs. Since it's still 4 ways on the turn you're getting value even if you're behind.

[hicherbie]

hmm. a bunch of hands would raise in such a large pot vs 3. Id go to war and slow down on the river if i didnt hit.

[W. Deranged]

If there was absolutely no chance hero had the best hand at the moment, we would have 13 pure outs:

13 / 46 = 28.3% = hero's minimum equity &gt; 25%

As long as it's four-handed, there is only one solution:

Gas it up!

[Nick C]

Well, in theory, we actually have 13 outs against a set of 6's or 7's, so we could have an equity edge versus three opponents even if we're not currently ahead.

Given that we have three opponents, though, and only one is still raising, it is likely than a few of the cards we want to see are in our opponents' hands. Still, I'm thinking 3-betting can't be that bad, even though I do suspect we're drawing. (I think just calling is okay too, though. The decision seems close to me.)

The river's going to be awkward if we don't improve. I think I would check and let UTG+1 bet, with the plan of overcalling.

I don't know. He could just have A7/A6, but I am pretty concerned about a set at this point.

[mantasm]

And about the river, check call if it's capped, bet if it's not.

Why are you thinking about folding on the turn with 19.16-to-1 immediate pot odds, the overpair, and the nut flush draw? My decision whether to re-raise or call depends upon how many will call my re-raise -- if I think all 3 will, then I bet; if less than 3, then I call, thinking I'll get more money in the pot that way.

I'm likely to call down the river if I don't hit the spade, but that depends on whether there is only 1 person who is left who I think is on a busted draw (this looks unlikely to happen because I expect UTG+1 is not solely on a draw and will be there at SD).

[TomBrooks]

...3 BETS.

If UTG has a set you have 13 outs to beat him and if your card comes in on the river, 3-betting now will disguise the hand you make somewhat.

Your odds of improving are 2.5:1. Having MP1 come along, which he probably will, will provide you with almost enough overlay to make this bet for value. If you get all three callers, you have value.

It's also possible that you are already ahead of a worse two pair or an overplayed flush draw.

[chief444]

Easy 3-bet. I may check/call the river unimproved if he caps though.

[meep_42]

I'm not at all thinking about folding, here or the river.

More general note: I do not have 13 outs here. After the flop action it is very, very unlikely that I have the only Ace and/or the only flush draw.

-d

[W. Deranged]

Obviously some outs will be taken up in villain's hands, but note that if we are behind to a set already, and that set is not AA or JJ (which we can assume more safely given pre-flop action, though you never know), you probably don't have more than 3 outs total tied up in villain's hands. The only way you could have 4 tied up is if you were against another draw and another AJ, or against two other one pair hands which happened to have spade kickers (are your opponents that horrible here???)

Assuming three outs are in villain's hands, realizing we have now theoretically "seen" six more cards, your drawing equity is 10/40 = 25% which means a raise here if it stays four-handed is exactly dead even. Add the probability you might be ahead, however small, and this is still an easy raise.

[Margeaux]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not at all thinking about folding, here or the river.

More general note: I do not have 13 outs here. After the flop action it is very, very unlikely that I have the only Ace and/or the only flush draw.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

If we are behind, that probably means that UTG+1 has a set of 6s or 7s, considering action on earlier streets--and that means he has no /images/graemlins/spade.gif. If we're putting one of the cold-callers on a bad /images/graemlins/spade.gif draw, that means we have 2 fewer outs and 4 fewer cards in the deck:

11 outs / 42 cards &gt; 25%

Even if somehow both Aces are out there, and there's another spade draw, and we're behind to set 6s or 7s, that leaves us with a likely 9 outs / 40 cards and very close to the 25% we need.

Note that we only need these outs in the unlikely event that we're behind... and if we aren't behind, as W. says, go ahead and gas it up.

[thejameser]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy 3-bet. I may check/call the river unimproved if he caps though.

[/ QUOTE ]

as much as i LOVED stonewalls analysis, i must echo chief.

[meep_42]

I thought this was a pretty easy 3-bet myself when I looked it over. Glad everyone's on the same page.

I did discount 3 of my outs and thought I was behind a set about half the time, and i'd only be capped some (33-66%) of the time against a set (since I could easily have AA).

River bricks, A6 and A7 lose to my turned top-two.
(one folded, so both aces were out and either a straight or flush draw)

-d

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Note that we only need these outs in the unlikely event that we're behind...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we're drawing against UTG+1 most of the time here. Sometimes we'll be tied with him and freerolling against his hand. Occasionally, he'll have a worse hand entirely (such as a worse two pair).

But, usually, we'll be drawing, I think.

Fortunately, we do have a pretty good draw, though.

[Nick C]

You don't have to have your actual 36-42 outs (instead of 9-13) all that often for a turn 3-bet to be a good thing.

[TripleH68]

Fun hand...

Once UTG+1 raises the turn for value, a set becomes a real possibility...but two pair/draw is still out there.

MP1 is playing like a draw, possibly a flush draw which would be discount a few outs. Limping in preflop he may hold two pair or even AK also and was looking to beef up the pot on the flop.

UTG is a little worrisome calling, calling and calling three cold back to him on the flop. Often times this means the player is a donator.

If you 3-bet the turn and UTG folds/UTG+1 caps I would not be happy, but with a read of UTG+1 as sensible you can plan to check/call the river on any non-spade.

If UTG is going to call then I would not hesitate to face him with 3 cold.

If UTG+1 does not cap then I would lead the river on a non spade...

Thanks . . . lol. I'm just a newbie trying to learn. Seems like posting without first hearing others' opinions, and then getting torn up is a good way to do it.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

I have a hard time putting UTG+1 on a set and more likely on a worse two pair. Your action preflop and post flop is consistant with a big ace or Ax of spades out side chance of AA.

The strength of UTG+1 is still unknown yet as he only was allowed 1 action on the flop, you can't slow down just yet. A 3 bet is in order as a lot of two pair hands UTG+1 may have had will still raise the turn putting you on AK/AQ.

Later,
MarkV.