Gamboool: Big Turn Semibluff Deep PP 2/4 6max

[fimbulwinter]

Villain (BB) is weak/tight (22/4) regular. have 3000 hands on him, he plays his cards. RR is AA or KK and maybe QQ >95% of the time.

UTG (600) just sat, have seen him in the 1/2 game and he's decent but nothing to worry about.

I'm (~750) on SB with 54/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

PF:

UTG raises to $12, folded to me, I call, BB (800) makes it 40, UTG folds, I call.

F: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif2/images/graemlins/club.gif (90)

I check, BB bets 75, I call

T: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (240)

I check, BB bets 175, I raise all-in for 460 more.

1. what line do you like if the turn comes a diamond?
2. if he folds, do i show it?

fim

[fimbulwinter]

i'm betting 635 to win 415 and i (almost surely) have ~14.5 outs for a little better than 33% equity.

0 = 415x + (1-x)((.33)(1510) - (635))
0 = 415x + (1-x)(-136.7)
136.7 = 551.7x
x = 25% or more he must fold to have the move turn a profit.

at x = 50 EV = $138
and
at x = 75 EV = $276

notice just calling the 175 yields

175/(240+175+175) = .297 or a total gain of (.33-.297)(pot) = ~$17 + 1/3(river value bet when i hit)

so which do you like better? obviously folding the turn is not allowed...

fim

[Rotating Rabbit]

Off the top of my head he only has to fold this more than about 1/3rd+ of the time to make it +EV. Meta game is huge of course. So this is a good move.

Is calling his RR preflop really profitable for you out of position here? Difficult to get paid off oop, this semibluff may have been one of only very few +EV scenarios.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]

Is calling his RR preflop really profitable for you out of position here? Difficult to get paid off oop, this semibluff may have been one of only very few +EV scenarios.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's a good question. bear in mind, it was 28 back to me to play a 90 dollar pot, so i was getting better than 3:1 on the call...

still, it's debateable, any thoughts either way?

fim

[captZEEbo1]

fold preflop, furthermore, I really really really doubt you will get anything to fold except AKo. I don't like it. You'd have to have a killer read to make this play (very weak). If he has QQ+, he'll just convince himself you have JJ or AT or a flush draw.

Calling turn is better than pushing imo.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop,

[/ QUOTE ]

when?

[ QUOTE ]
furthermore, I really really really doubt you will get anything to fold except AKo. I don't like it. You'd have to have a killer read to make this play (very weak). If he has QQ+, he'll just convince himself you have JJ or AT or a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

what? AT and JJ? iuhdafildfhuiludf? is this a joke post?

[ QUOTE ]
Calling turn is better than pushing imo.

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give me a fold equity percentage and a value bet $ amount then.

fim

[Rotating Rabbit]

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[ QUOTE ]

Is calling his RR preflop really profitable for you out of position here? Difficult to get paid off oop, this semibluff may have been one of only very few +EV scenarios.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's a good question. bear in mind, it was 28 back to me to play a 90 dollar pot, so i was getting better than 3:1 on the call...

still, it's debateable, any thoughts either way?

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

Hold on its 2-1 you cant count your 28 in the pot size !I really dont think its profitable.

Im convinced you'll get way more than 25% folds here at 400nl. And even if you get called the -EV from being called is only -$135 or so, you'll get it back several times over when you next checkraise all in with the goods.

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
Hold on its 2-1 you cant count your 28 in the pot size !

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it just me or is this statement completely wrong?

[Rotating Rabbit]

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[ QUOTE ]
Hold on its 2-1 you cant count your 28 in the pot size !

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Is it just me or is this statement completely wrong?

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Either ive gone completely mad or? There's 12+12+40 in the pot totalling 64, hero has to call another 28. Whats the disagreement here?!

[invisibleleadsoup]

i'm not sure that i "get" this,let my try and figure it out
thinking aloud here:ok,if he folds 25% of the time you're showing a profit-well and good...
the thing is,to me it looks like figuring out the pure maths in this particular situation isn't all that useful,here's why:

you're not really able to represent anything other than a set-he's unlikely to give you credit for a weird straight or anything,so you're basically representing a set
so it really comes down to the specific player
he's going to fall into one of three categories:
1-is married to his overpair,it won't even occur to him that he might be beat or that he could fold
2-he might worry about a set but he's not willing to fold an overpair "just in case"
3-he will figure you've got a set and make a "good" fold

now what i think is that he's going to fall into one of these categories and play accordingly *all* the time,and you make your money from knowing which type of player he is

if you don't already know that,i suppose this might be the way to find out!
the fact that you describe him as weak tight initially suggests that he might be the type to fold,however i've found that weak tight players are pretty bad,and will overplay the hands they've been sitting there waiting for,which is what you've put him on...

one other thing to consider is that you're representing a set-has he seen you play sets before,and is this how you've done it?
its a fairly obvious way to play a set,will that in itself make it look like you don't have one,or is he even observant enough to notice such things?

basically i suppose what i'm getting at is that this is very read dependent-if you don't have a solid read (on whether he'll lay down an overpair,that is)then this is a good way to find out,if you play him often enough for this to be profitable information...

i'm only starting to learn to play these stakes,though,so i'm just throwing out my point of view to see what people think-if i'm way off here i'd be interested to know why

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not sure that i "get" this,let my try and figure it out
thinking aloud here:ok,if he folds 25% of the time you're showing a profit-well and good...
the thing is,to me it looks like figuring out the pure maths in this particular situation isn't all that useful,here's why:

you're not really able to represent anything other than a set-he's unlikely to give you credit for a weird straight or anything,so you're basically representing a set
so it really comes down to the specific player
he's going to fall into one of three categories:
1-is married to his overpair,it won't even occur to him that he might be beat or that he could fold
2-he might worry about a set but he's not willing to fold an overpair "just in case"
3-he will figure you've got a set and make a "good" fold

now what i think is that he's going to fall into one of these categories and play accordingly *all* the time,and you make your money from knowing which type of player he is

if you don't already know that,i suppose this might be the way to find out!
the fact that you describe him as weak tight initially suggests that he might be the type to fold,however i've found that weak tight players are pretty bad,and will overplay the hands they've been sitting there waiting for,which is what you've put him on...

one other thing to consider is that you're representing a set-has he seen you play sets before,and is this how you've done it?
its a fairly obvious way to play a set,will that in itself make it look like you don't have one,or is he even observant enough to notice such things?

basically i suppose what i'm getting at is that this is very read dependent-if you don't have a solid read (on whether he'll lay down an overpair,that is)then this is a good way to find out,if you play him often enough for this to be profitable information...

i'm only starting to learn to play these stakes,though,so i'm just throwing out my point of view to see what people think-if i'm way off here i'd be interested to know why

[/ QUOTE ]

why do you think i'm representing a set? i think there's a much more logical hand for him to put me on here...

fim

[invisibleleadsoup]

sorry,yeah,i presume you mean 98
but would you not play that slower?
i mean,he hardly thinks you're putting him on a flush draw and trying to kill the pot
i think it still comes down to whether or not he folds an overpair to a possible set or two card straight

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry,yeah,i presume you mean 98
but would you not play that slower?


[/ QUOTE ]

i can count between 18 and 26 cards i would not want to see if i held the straight (not in terms of me losing, but in terms of me losing my action from KK etc.). when half the deck kills your river action, you play the nuts very fast.

fim

[invisibleleadsoup]

fair point,i wasnt thinking of that at all...
so will he fold his overpair?
will it even occur to him that you might have 98?
i can think of a lot of players at 2/4 who wouldn't think of that at all,i still think it comes down to whether he would or not...

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hold on its 2-1 you cant count your 28 in the pot size !

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Is it just me or is this statement completely wrong?

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Nothing wrong, I just completely misread your post is all. So hero is getting 2.3 pot odds to call.

Either ive gone completely mad or? There's 12+12+40 in the pot totalling 64, hero has to call another 28. Whats the disagreement here?!

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[arod15]

I like it a lot.

[chuddo]

i would never fold this preflop.

often i would check-call the flop, and check-raise the turn all in, as you did. stacks/pot sizes are perfect for this line to have the +30% folding equity against an overpair to make this a profitable play.

one line i might consider is just calling his turn bet, and adding a couple of 'bluffing' outs in addition to my actual big draw.

such as any 9 that puts the 4 straight out there.
an A if KK/QQ is possible and he can put you on the A-flush draw.
a 10 that pairs the top pair.

if one of those cards fall i would be very tempted to lead right into him pretty big. he could still credit you with a flopped set, a turned straight, or that you just rivered him.

as far as what to bet on the end if you call his turn bet and then hit it is dependant on which draw comes in.

the best card would obviously be the offsuit 3 and i would either bet the pot, and contemplate a check-raise all in if would not check his AA/KK behind.

if the flush comes in i would be resigned to bet 3/4th the pot. likewise for the 9 for the 4-straight.

[AZK]

I like it. I don't know if people lay down enough at 2/4 for this to be profitable. They never did against me, but I had my image working against me. You know what he has, and from your description it sounds like he is weak enough to lay down, but only you can tell us from your database whether or not he marries his AA/KK....that's it.

[Allinlife]

this play is awesome agasint weak players. but most of the time on party 2/4, I get called often in this spot and repeat to my self "i gotta stop w/ fps"

I'd also often fold to flop bet. you have obvious non-nut draw oop. too often you will get no action when you hit your flush and at times you do, it'll probably higher flush stacking you.

[LuvDemNutz]

I like it.

I also like showing when he folds so when I have set a few hands later, I stack him.

[fsuplayer]

looks perfect. and i'd show.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
this play is awesome agasint weak players. but most of the time on party 2/4, I get called often in this spot and repeat to my self "i gotta stop w/ fps"

I'd also often fold to flop bet. you have obvious non-nut draw oop. too often you will get no action when you hit your flush and at times you do, it'll probably higher flush stacking you.

[/ QUOTE ]

you don't think i have enough bluffing outs to make the call?

how many do you count?

fim

[fimbulwinter]

he folded after about 15 sec of deliberation. I didn't uncheck the muck hands button in time, so no show.

he typed "str8"? in the chat box and i said "nh"

fim

[Klepton]

this is awesome

[Allinlife]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this play is awesome agasint weak players. but most of the time on party 2/4, I get called often in this spot and repeat to my self "i gotta stop w/ fps"

I'd also often fold to flop bet. you have obvious non-nut draw oop. too often you will get no action when you hit your flush and at times you do, it'll probably higher flush stacking you.

[/ QUOTE ]

you don't think i have enough bluffing outs to make the call?

how many do you count?

fim

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't see the staright draw when I first posted the reply, forgive me.

I see 17 outs now.. 15 straightflush draws and 2 top card pairing the board. As long as you know your opponent is capable of laying overpairs in this situation (I'd often make this laydown), I guess this kind of play is one to envy.

p.s) Stay the hell out of my table.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
this play is awesome agasint weak players. but most of the time on party 2/4, I get called often in this spot and repeat to my self "i gotta stop w/ fps"

I'd also often fold to flop bet. you have obvious non-nut draw oop. too often you will get no action when you hit your flush and at times you do, it'll probably higher flush stacking you.

[/ QUOTE ]

you don't think i have enough bluffing outs to make the call?

how many do you count?

fim

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't see the staright draw when I first posted the reply, forgive me.

I see 17 outs now.. 15 straightflush draws and 2 top card pairing the board. As long as you know your opponent is capable of laying overpairs in this situation (I'd often make this laydown), I guess this kind of play is one to envy.

p.s) Stay the hell out of my table.

[/ QUOTE ]

no offense, but if you arent making plays similar to this at least once every couple of sessions then you need to be more aggressive and mixed up your play more.

nh fim.

[IHateCats]

This doesn't seem like the best place to show at least based on this player. In general I'm not wild about showing if there are other good regulars at the table who will notice a sophisticated play like this. Aside from that however, I think you should show depending on 3 factors, #1 tiltability of the player in question, #2 your position to take advantage if you do push them over the edge, ie it helps if you have position on them and #3 your overall table image at that point. If you've been loose/aggro or have just been running good it's worth it to stimulate action and then tighten up a bit and try to ensure some callers on solid holdings you bet aggressively.
Since he's to 2 to your right and solid enough to laydown a probable decent hand here, I don't think there's enough reason to show here unless you are doing it for other players at the table. Thoughts?

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
This doesn't seem like the best place to show at least based on this player. In general I'm not wild about showing if there are other good regulars at the table who will notice a sophisticated play like this. Aside from that however, I think you should show depending on 3 factors, #1 tiltability of the player in question, #2 your position to take advantage if you do push them over the edge, ie it helps if you have position on them and #3 your overall table image at that point. If you've been loose/aggro or have just been running good it's worth it to stimulate action and then tighten up a bit and try to ensure some callers on solid holdings you bet aggressively.
Since he's to 2 to your right and solid enough to laydown a probable decent hand here, I don't think there's enough reason to show here unless you are doing it for other players at the table. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are good points. in general i try to cultivate a very loose/aggressive table image and then value bet later streets to death.

why do you think it would be bad to show better players this move? do you think they'll start looking me up when i chekraise the turn big? do you see this as a bad thing?

fim

[savman]

well played, i love it. the fact you had a big draw simply reduced the variance on this play. textbook example of why one shouldnt 3 bet pf oop against a thinking opponent, just like i posted in edge NL600 hand. i would show so fast, then take note to value bet him for a while. awesome hand.

[CamelZoo]

great post and nh fim.

couple of questions... what do you think you pushed villain off of? 2nd - if you were villain, having no read on hero, would you call in that spot with a set?

peace.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
great post and nh fim.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks to you and all other posters who responded

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couple of questions... what do you think you pushed villain off of?

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AA or KK almost certainly, with QQ in there maybe 5% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
2nd - if you were villain, having no read on hero, would you call in that spot with a set?

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with a set, yes, but with his hand, nope. If you look at the odds he's being offered on a call and then go over the math and my likely holdings, he's most often against a hand which has him drawing to two outs or stone dead here, hence i would have to be making a move a healthy amount of the time here (which i won't in general as most players in this game are so call happy) for him to call. an analogous situation would be getting bet/3bet all-in on a board of 942 with a flush draw present when i hold KK. his NFD semibluff has so much pot equity (~50%) and his made hands have me so destroyed (2 outs) that I'm willing to fold here even if he has a flush draw a good percentage of the time. the math is easy to figure out that percentage.

[ QUOTE ]
peace.

[/ QUOTE ]

fim

[Allinlife]

thanks for the comment fsu. When I try plays like this, I often get called and tell my self FPS sucks. but I think it's just that I pick the wrong opponents that will seldom fold overpairs in this situation to begin with. I'll try more of these plays next time I find rocks @ my table.

just out of curiosity fim, if turn blanks, and villan again bets with 2/3~psb are you giving this one up?

[EverettKings]

Were you planning this line all along? Calling the preflop raise hoping that you flop a sneaky trips or a flush draw AND he bets the flop and turn when checked to AND he'll lay down an overpair?

I mean, given the action up to the turn your semi bluff is just fine. My objection is that you got there. Calling out of position preflop getting only 2-1 and being heads up with 45s is not my cup of tea without a good read on the guy. It's too expensive to try unless he's either A) weak passive and will pay you off like mad, or B) weak tight and can easily be pushed out of the pot.

What was your thought process on the flop? What was your plan given his turn action and the turn card? What if you didn't pick up the draw and he bet 225?


It just seems like the conditions had to be very right and he had to be capable of laying down a big hand here. It worked in this case, but I'm not sure I like it without a better read.

Kings

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
Were you planning this line all along? Calling the preflop raise hoping that you flop a sneaky trips or a flush draw AND he bets the flop and turn when checked to AND he'll lay down an overpair?

I mean, given the action up to the turn your semi bluff is just fine. My objection is that you got there. Calling out of position preflop getting only 2-1 and being heads up with 45s is not my cup of tea without a good read on the guy. It's too expensive to try unless he's either A) weak passive and will pay you off like mad, or B) weak tight and can easily be pushed out of the pot.

What was your thought process on the flop? What was your plan given his turn action and the turn card? What if you didn't pick up the draw and he bet 225?


It just seems like the conditions had to be very right and he had to be capable of laying down a big hand here. It worked in this case, but I'm not sure I like it without a better read.

Kings

[/ QUOTE ]

The OP stated that his opponent was a weak-tight regular that he had ~3000 hands on .

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]

The OP stated that his opponent was a weak-tight regular that he had ~3000 hands on

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad. Somehow thought he was referring to UTG as the weak tight.

nh, that is all

Kings