Interesting 50-100 Hand

[Jeffage]

50-100 Online. Full game. I have 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif UTG. Game is passive so I limp. 4 limpers behind me including the button. SB calls, BB checks. Flop comes K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif giving me the superdraw. Check to me, I bet. One fold, one caller, then the button raises. Fold back to me, I three bet. Limper calls and button now caps. I call. Turn is the ugly J /images/graemlins/club.gif. I check, limper checks, button checks (surprisingly). River is the 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif. I bet. Comments?

Jeff

[Lestat]

I'll leave pre-flop and flop play for others. I'll take the easiest of the streets and say you played the river well. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[ChewyMint]

I like the play the whole way through. You can't juice the pot on the turn, because now if you hit, you don't even know if you are ahead. I like the bet on the river, but you are almost definately getting called no matter what based on the size of the pot.

Well played, IMO.

ChewyMint

[spoohunter]

Really? I think ace high calls the river given the turn.

Preflop: I don't like that hand out of position. You have to be certain you will get a lot of players in the pot.

Flop: 13 outs makes you about 50% to hit by the river. You don't want to drive people out, but you want to grow the pot. Someone else could bet your draw, and you could checkraise. A free card isn't great, but its not terrible.

Turn: checking is good.

River: I am afraid your bet is going to get a crying call, but if you can pull it off, good job.

By the way, were are you playing 50-100?

[Jeffage]

1) I explained my reason for the preflop call (game conditions). In most online games I muck preflop.

2) The reraise is for value ont he flop and disguises my hand. Limper is unlikely to fold here with the abundance of draws and loose nature of the game.

3) Thanks

4) It's unlikely to be successful, but at this point I'm getting 11.5-1 on the bet.

5) I can't do all the work for you can I? /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Thanks,
Jeff

[Jeffage]

Look at the pot odds offered. It has to work less than 10% of the time to be profitable? What percentage of the time do you think it works?

Jeff

[DpR]

Preflop is fine. River is good. I think you win here WAY more than 1 of 11 or whatever you need.

[dankhank]

[ QUOTE ]
Look at the pot odds offered. It has to work less than 10% of the time to be profitable? What percentage of the time do you think it works?

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd say it works less than 10% of the time.

[mike l.]

standard. with the pot the size it is it makes sense to bluff the river even into two players. expect to be called down almost always but get away with it enough to show a small long term profit.

[bobbyi]

I like it. The river bet is clear. Given that the button was the flop capper, you easily could have been trying to check-raise the field on the turn, so you have credibility here.

[spoohunter]

You have a better chance of getting a camel through the eye of a needle than getting two folds here.

[TheBusiness]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it. The river bet is clear. Given that the button was the flop capper, you easily could have been trying to check-raise the field on the turn, so you have credibility here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is one of two reasons why I think the river bet is a +EV play. The other is that the button's turn check seems to indicate that he is also on a draw, capping the flop instead of just calling the 3 bet in the hope of not having to call a turn bet if the draw missed. It could also mean he filled up on the turn and checked hoping to induce a river bet, but I think that is less likely because the flop action was strong enough that he would expect to get at least a call if he bet the turn. Either way, I think a river bet still looks credible after you bet-3bet the flop, and you'll get two folds often enough to make the play profitable.

That said, preflop and flop are questionable. Even in a passive game, I can't see limping UTG with 89 as a reasonable play for someone like you who I know is otherwise a pretty good player. Save limping with 89 for spots where there are already some limpers in front of you and you are not giving the entire field the chance to raise preflop and make you put two or more bets in. On the flop, I think you are playing the hand a little too strongly. You are not drawing to the nut flush, and your straight draw only gives you 3 additional outs that you didn't already have. I think bet-call is the best flop line. If you were playing in the 50/100 game I think you were playing in, you know very well that a flop 3-bet is not going to win the pot for you right there, so its no good as a semi-bluff, and you could be driving out the limper who might pay you off if you had hit on the turn or river. Given the preflop and flop action, however, you played the turn and river well.

[SpaceAce]

I'm surprised at how many people don't think the river bet is profitable. Both opponents checked through on the turn and the river blanked. I think the river bet is great. Something to consider is that the hero is the only person who could have reasonably checked the turn with a strong hand (I suppose the caller could be slowplaying a set that filled up but it seems unlikely). His river bet could easily be seen as a whiffed turn check-raise.

I think that the flop action (one pumper, one mega-caller) then the turn checking through is just begging for the hero to steal the pot from a couple of busted draws.


SpaceAce

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? I think ace high calls the river given the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]only if you are playing with complete idiots... river bluff is obvious since it is very believable that you have a big hand considering previous action. the river is the only street that i think is undebatably correct.

[Jeffage]

Interesting thread, thanks for the responses. Both of my opponents folded to my river bet and I won. I figured my flop 3 bet/turn check combo might look like I turned a boat or some other strong holding. That combined with the fact that my opponents might both be drawing or one might be and the other has a tiny pair or something that he may fold once in awhile made me think the best was +EV at 11.5-1. As for the flop, I know no one is folding so I get value and disguise my hand a bit. More comments welcome.

Jeff

[tomahawk]

nice bet Jeff /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[arod15]

Explain the river bet?

[anatta]

MP knows he is drawing and button is drawing, so someone must have a hand. Button knows he is drawing and MP is drawing, so someone must have a hand. You know you are drawing and MP and button are drawing, and someone must have a hand...and it might as well be you.

Explained: He clearly has no chance of winning a checkdown or a bet and call. However, he may have some chance of betting out and both opponents might fold, an he would win the whole pot. If his chances are 1/10 or better, he needs to bet.

We could argue what his chances were, but whatever those chances were, it worked! :-) Very good bet!